Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target on DraftKings and FanDuel in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Valspar Championship Review
Henrik Stenson – Top End – MC
There were plenty of disappointments at the top end of the leaderboard this week with three of the five salaries above $10,000 on DraftKings failing to make the cut. Stenson had a terrible week from a fantasy perspective and ended with one of the lowest fantasy scores for the tournament.
Matt Kuchar – Cash – T40
There was a little concern in playing Matt Kuchar after his performance the week prior in Mexico but I felt the ever-consistent Kuchar would get right back to doing what he does best, making cuts. Kuchar’s T40 finish is in no way exceptional however it is a result that is perfectly find for cash games.
Jason Dufner – Cash – MC
Great course history and a good price made Dufner an obvious cash play this week. Dufner was looking solid until he went 5 over in his last six holes to miss the cut by one stroke. Thanks Jason!
Charl Schwartzel – All Formats – T49
Charl came into the event on a string of mediocre results but the important stats to me were trending in the right direction. With great course history, a good price and expected low ownership I liked Charl for the week. Strings of bad holes and big numbers kept Charl from the top of the leaderboard.
Overall, not the greatest week for me, but you aren’t going to win every week in DFS. When weeks like this happen it’s good to be following a bankroll management strategy that allows you to stay in the game. We hear at DFS Army have outlined a strategy for our members focusing on contest selection and portioning your buy-ins dependent on how much you are willing to risk.
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Course Preview
The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at Bay Hill, a par 72 measuring 7,419 yards. The event features 120 players this year instead of the 144 we are used to seeing at events. This should theoretically mean a higher percentage of teams are likely to be 6/6% which should slightly change the way you are looking at constructing rosters in GPP’s. I’ll break that down more in our SlackChat later in the week.
Back to the course, the event challenges players and winners will likely have to take advantage of the par fives while not losing strokes back on the difficult par threes and fours. This sounds similar to any course but the par threes and fours here play harder than the typical course we see on tour which leads me to expect those who can really grind it out to have a bit of an edge. The course features water on eight separate holes and there is plenty of sand for players to navigate around as well.
Because of the length we see a higher percentage of long-iron shots then we see at other events. As a result, long-irons should be prioritized as players who have shown an ability to excel at this range in relation to competition should have an easier week.
The course also test players scrambling abilities. Missing the green will more than likely leave you with a tricky shot with how the course is set up so I will be looking for players who can save strokes in this area.
Key Stats
Shots Gained: Approach (long-irons)
Total Driving
Par 5 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
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Picks
Tiger Woods – Check Back to Slackchat – DK: $10000 FD: $11900
It really is nice seeing Tiger back in contention at events. Regardless of your individual opinion about the guy the events are simply more interesting when he is in the mix. The Valspar was more viewed than every major except the Master last season just because of Tiger being at the top of the leaderboard. After his recent performance I was realistically expecting Tiger to be the top salary or at the very least within a few hundred dollars of it in a field missing DJ, Rahm and Spieth. With the fifth highest salary on DraftKings and his ridiculous course history I expect Tiger to be the highest owned player in the field. As the week breaks down more and we release our ownership projections I’ll have a better idea of what I’m doing personally with Tiger in DFS.
Hideki Matsuyama – Top End GPP – DK $9700 FD: $11400
It’s always risky playing players in their return from a withdrawal. It becomes even riskier when there is a language barrier and the player has not directly interviewed about the matter. However, looking back at Matsuyama’s career in the four other instances that he has withdrawn (he must not play fantasy sports) he has come back and made the cut in every event including a 2nd place in a Japanese event. This makes me think that Hideki has taken the time to fully recover and feels comfortable to be playing again. This is a high risk/high reward GPP play as we should expect the return from injury to suppress ownership but we really do not know what to expect in terms of play. If Hideki is fully recovered than a $9700 price tag is simply absurd for a player with his talent and who should be under owned being priced next to Tiger
Francesco Molinari – DK Value – DK: $7300 FD: $9900
In his last four starts at this event Molinari has three top tens and no finish worse than T17. Although has not necessarily excelled this year a T25 finish at the WGC – Mexico Championship was a step in the right direction for Molinari. Given the price I really like Molinari in cash game formats and think he is a great way to save some money while still getting a player who is very likely to make the cut while having the upside to be in contention come Sunday.
Tyrell Hatton – FD Value – DK: $9000 FD: $10600
Although at this price point we do not necessarily think of value, Hatton is looking underpriced. A few weeks ago Hatton was the talk of everyone coming into the Honda Classic when he abruptly missed the cut. The following week Hatton’s ownership was much lower and we saw him finish T3 against a loaded field. Fast forward to now and Hatton’s price point does not reflect his outright odds to win despite a recent third place finish and a 4th place finish at this event last season.
*As always, this article is published as a first look, things change leading up to lock and SlackChat should be checked as thoughts are changed when new information arises.*
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