On the Deep Dive today I am going to look at the Centre position for tonight’s 5 game slate. All stats come from the dfsarmy.com’s VIPs only NHL Research Station ( RS). From there I am getting Corsi For (CF) Corsi Against ( CA) the Implied Team Total (ITT) Shots on Goal and Blocked Shots ( SOGBS). The RS has much more information than just this. Hopefully this gives you a taste and you come try out the Army for help and coaching for your dfs needs for all sports. The army really can make you a better player.
Malkin ( Pit) is the highest priced centre today at $9200. His last 21 day average is a few fantasy points per game ( fp/g) higher than his season long average, but he has slowed down from stretches where he was 10 points higher. All though they appear to be facing Carey Price tonight ( which ever Price shows up), the Penguins have to be considered to be in a smash spot. Yes I know they were yesterday too, but if you were in our VIP Slack chat there was a conversation about how well the NYI Goalie plays against the penguins and a warning was there that suggested to maybe lower expectations. Pitt is in a very favorable Corsi spot ( 10th CF vs 28th CA), and sit with an ITT just shy of 4 goals. Vegas clearly expects some scoring tonight, and for the season more of the scoring has gone through Malkin than other players.
Crosby (Pit) All the same data applies to Crosby, with the difference being he will cost you $600 less, but is delivering about 3.5 fp/g less than Malkin. Crosby has increased his SOGBS slightly which will give him a slightly better floor, but if either of these guys only hits their floor your line up is probably already in trouble.
Getzlaf( Ana) seems on the surface to be the best Centre on the night. His last 21 day average is 22.4 fp/g, more than a point higher than Malkin, with $1800 in cost savings. During this time he is hot, averaging about 7.75 fp/g over his season long average. Ana’s 12th ranked CF is up against Cal’s 5th ranked CA, which is not ideal. This came is basically a pickem, and both teams are fighting for a playoff spot, though if Calgary cant get it going they will fall out of the race quickly. So expect a hard tough game, that could have a playoff feel and lean to the under.
Eichel( Buf) has seen his last 21 day avg drop compared to his season long, about a fantasy point a game lower. Buf also has the worst CF in the last 21 days, going up against Ari’s 7th ranked CA. Ari isn’t a good road team, so there is room for Buf to produce here, but I would lean away from Eichel, and for the same price take a chance on the hotter Getzlaf, or pay down for one of the cheaper centres.
Monahan ( Cal) is in that similar price range to Eichel and Getzlaf, but has even worse production. His avg has dropped almost 2 full fp/g. Paying $7600 for a guy averaging under 11 fp/g does not seem like a smart play, especially if you are playing cash. GPP is a different story given the scoring Cal is capable of. But as I said under Getzlaf, this could be a hard played low scoring game.
O Reilly ( Buf) To me if you really want a piece of Buf at centre tonight, ROR is a better choice. He has a $1400 savings, is averaging more fp/g. It’s a slight difference, but you have to ask yourself if its close enough to justify paying that extra $1400 for Eichel. On the plus side, Last 5 games (L5 DVP) the Arizona D is only ranked 20th against the Centre position.
Stepan ( Ari) has been hot lately, avg more than 4 fp/g over his season long average. Ari has a slight edge with their 5th CF going against Buf’s 13th CA. Buf also has only been the 19th best L5 DVP vs Centres. As I mentioned earlier, Ari isn’t a great road team, but on a 4 game slate we need to look at all the options.
Dvorak (Ari). Dvorak gives you a $1200 saving compared to Stepan, and his numbers show that difference is justified. You pay less you get less in this case. Dvorak is all a PP2 guy vs Stepan being on PP1.
Brassard ( Pitt) Digging into Pitt one more time. You know the teams stats already. The big advantage for Brassard is his $5200 price tag. That is a big savings dropping down from Malkin. Brassard has been cold lately though ( only 9.52 fp/g), so a super deep dive into line up match ups is likely required to determine if you want to use him tonight.
Krejci ( Bos) Nash (Bos). StL is currently running in the middle of the pack on L5DVP. Neither of these Centres have a great floor for fp/g from SOGBS, both averaging under 4. The big difference is Nash is getting to play on the first line with Marchand and Pasternak. I might be able to get points playing with those two. So Nash is on a heater getting that opportunity, avg almost 8 fp/g more than his season avg over the last 3 weeks. The stats are fairly similar between the teams, so this should be a close game. Both are top 10 CA teams, with Boston having an edge on the CF side which might be enough to get them the win tonight. Nash will save you $500 compared to Krejci, so Krejci probably should be a pass except as part of a GPP stack.
Drouin ( Mtl) You are saying why am I bothering with a Mtl player, they have been shut out recently……..alot!!. But it’s a 4 game slate and he is only $5000 and might be some cheap exposure to Gallager who was hot before the recent 3 game power outage. Pit can also be leaky, so if there is a good time for Montreal to at least not get shut out it might be tonight. They have to score sometime right?
Rodrigues ( Buf). One last look at the Sabres, with guy who will only cost $4600, but is averaging 14.2 fp/g, for a nice 3.09x points/cost ratio, which is the highest of these centres, so I couldn’t leave him off. All the same Buf/Ari comments apply, but he has been hot lately and at that price may let you pay up elsewhere, especially for Gpps.
There isn’t a lot of super great value at the Centre position tonight. In comparing to DK all but two of these guys are higher on FD, some very significantly higher. ( Drouin……a $1000 more? Really?). But we still need to select 2. Hopefully this helps with some of your research. Personally I may look at pay up for one down for one strategy for my line up tonight. Depends what I find for value plays at the other positions as always.
Cheers.
JD