On the Deep Dive today I am going to look at the Nashville at Winnipeg game on today’s slate. All stats come from the dfsarmy.com’s “VIPs only “NHL Research Station ( RS) and leftwinglock.com. From there I am getting Adjusted Corsi For (ACF) Adjusted Corsi Against ( ACA) ( which is for the last 3 weeks) the Implied Team Total (ITT) Shots on Goal and Blocked Shots ( SOGBS). The “x” is a points/$1000 ratio. The RS has much more information than just this and is worth your time. From leftwinglock I am getting line matchup information. Hopefully this gives you a taste and you come try out the Army for help and coaching for your dfs needs for all sports. The army really can make you a better player.
Vegas has this as a really close game.
-101 Nash ACF 11th ACA 13th ITT of 2.76
-117 Wpg ACF 5th ACA 7th ITT of 2. 84
O/U of 5.5 strongly leaning to the over right now.
Nashville is in Winnipeg for their 5th and final regular season meeting this season. These are two of the top teams in the league with the Preds sitting first in the overall league standings and the Jets 5th.
Their previous 4 games have gone
Preds Win 5-3 in Nashville
Jets win 6-4 in Nashville
Preds win 6-5 in Winnipeg
Preds win 3-1 in Nashville
In these 4 games, the Jets have allowed 18 goals and the Preds 14, both well above their normal GAA. Considering these are two top defenses in the league each with a goal in the Vezina conversation, the high scores are somewhat surprising, but they are also two of the best offenses and play at a high pace. Some teams like to slow the game down (think of the pace numbers from NBA discussions), but these two are fast and intense which has been leading to an increase in scoring opportunities.
Because he played last night (Nashville lost 4-1 in Minnesota last night then travelled to Winnipeg) Saros will get the start for the Preds tonight. This season he has a record of
9-5-6
2.37 GAA
.925 Save percentage.
He has only played 2 games in the last 3 weeks
1-0-1
1.95 GAA
.925 Save Percentage
On the Road Saros is
6-2-4
2.6 GAA
.920 Save percentage
Hellebyuck gets the start for Winnipeg. On the season he is
38-11-9
2.34 GAA
.924 save percentage
In the last 3 weeks he is
5-1-1
1.89 GAA
.943 save percentage.
At Home Hellebyuck is
26-5-2
2.30 GAA
.921 save percentage
Looking at the goalies numbers only, we could expect Winnipeg to have the edge in a close low scoring game. However with these teams I would suggest all the numbers get thrown out. I would not play either of these goalies in cash. I might pick one for a gpp, cause anything can work out there, but after we look at offences I have my doubts.
On offence, Nash 1 has 11 G, 12 A and 85 SOGBS
Wpg 1 has 8G, 13 A, 66 SOGBS
Head to head Nash 1( Arvidson line) has been matched up against Wpg 1 ( Wheeler line)an average of 63%, including 2 games in the high 70s. Why is this important to know? Lines that score also tend to give up goals, which makes this match up one to look at from both sides, though I would tend to lean more on the Nash side due to their higher production.
Nash has put out their D pairing of Josi and Ellis against Wpg 2 ( Laine line) 60% in the 6-5 game and 80% in the 3-1 game. I wonder which way they are likely to go. This pairing has only given up 3 goals in the last 10 games, so Laine can expect to see a heavy dose of those two. Having last change will allow the Jets to get away from them a bit more, so I don’t expect 80% again, but they will be out there lots.
Nashville’s scoring is a little more dependent on their 1st line. Nash 2 has 5G 11A and 76 SOGBS. Compare that to Wpg 2 who have 15 G 13 A 92 SOGBS.
When we look at the Corsi numbers, Winnipeg would appear to have a slight advantage with their 5th ranked CF facing Nashville’s 13th ranked CA, and Nashville’s 11th ranked CF against Winnipeg’s 7th Ranked CA.
Nashville has lost their last two games, and is playing the 2nd game of the road back to back. Winnipeg has won 4 straight, and is coming off an OT Win over Anaheim where they totally dominated but Gibson was by far the first star of the game. Winnipeg’s last loss was against the preds , where Nashville came out flying, scored 3 in the first half of the first period, including two shorties on the same penalty. Winnipeg is bound to have that in mind and not want to let it happen again.
Based on the Coris advantage, the road back to back for Nashville, the goaltending advantage Winnipeg should have, as well as Winnipeg having a healthy forward group, I am predicting a Winnipeg win. Lets call it 4-2 and see what happens.