On the Deep Dive today I am going to look at the Defense position for tonight’s 10 game slate. All stats come from the dfsarmy.com’s VIPs only NHL Research Station ( RS). From there I am getting Corsi For (CF) Corsi Against ( CA) ( which is for the last 3 weeks) the Implied Team Total (ITT) Shots on Goal and Blocked Shots ( SOGBS). The “x” is a points/$1000 ratio. The RS has much more information than just this. Hopefully this gives you a taste and you come try out the Army for help and coaching for your dfs needs for all sports. The army really can make you a better player. Players like Burns and Karlsson ( word is he is playing tonight) I am not diving into, as everyone knows them and what they bring to table
Carlson (Wash) is the highest priced D on my list at$7200 ( 600 less than on DK so he presents some value in that sense). He has been averaging 21.04 pt/g the last 3 weeks, more than 6 higher than his season avg. Wash has an ITT of 3.2 goals in a game they are favoured over Mon. Given his recent production, there is a good chance Carlson will get a piece of the scoring, and he has a floor over 7 pt/g from SOGBS alone. With that high price he is only giving us about 2.8x value. There are many options that will give you similar numbers at much less cost tonight, so I would say you don’t need to pay up here.
Pietrangelo ( StL) has been smoking, with an avg of 25.78 pt/g the last 3 weeks. This 12 pts higher than his season avg, and 9.78 pts from SOGBS gives the highest floor of the D I am looking at. At a cost of $5800 ( 500 less than DK) he is the clearest example of not having to pay up for Carlson today. On the down side, StL is going into Columbus as the underdog with an ITT of only 2.49 G and Columbus has been winning a lot lately. However Pietrangelo will be all over both ends of the ice though and is likely worth his price, with his 4.4x value.
Headman (TB) comes in with a cost of $6500. He is averaging 19.73 pts/g the last 3 weeks, with 6.4 of that coming from SOGBS. He only brings about a 3x value, and for his higher cost again it seems we can do better elsewhere. NJ beat Pitt in OT last night, then assumingly traveled home where TB was waiting for them. TB has an ITT of 3.35, with their 6th ranked CF facing NJ’s 30 ranked CA. All this says Headman is in a smash spot, and if you can make a sound argument for using him tonight then I say go for it.
Jones ( CBJ) is giving a very nice 3.4x value, with his 7.4 pts from SOGBS and 20.9 Avg the last few weeks ( which is about 7 pts higher than his season avg). He does come with a cost of $6100 though, which brings up the pay down discussion again. St L has been good on the CA side of things ranking 3rd, facing CBJ 15th ranked CF. While Corsi is far from anything, it is a warning sign, and combined with pricing issues, I would tend to lean away from Jones tonight.
Ellis ( Nash) is actually a slight underdog tonight which is surprising, but the ITT for Nash and Min is only .05 G apart ( 2.84 vs 2.79), and Vegas has this game leaning to the Under. Having said that Ellis is averaging 8 pts/g from SOGBS, which provides a great floor for cash gamers. He averages 18.80 pts/g for a 3.5x value. His cost of $5400 ( 200 less than DK) is not overwhelming. I am not saying I am going this way for sure with my builds, but Ellis and Pietranglo for $11200 give you a floor of almost 18 points from SOGBS and between them are averaging almost 45 pts/game. That’s not a bad start to lineup building.
Doughty ( LA) heads to Edmonton to face the slightly underdog Oilers. With his 3.3x value, floor under 6, and nothing of note in the corsi numbers, I would suggest for the same money that there are other directions you can go in tonight.
Reilly ( Tor) brings a price of only $5300, and has a floor of 7.8 with a total Avg of 22.80 pts/g. That gives us a great 4.3x value. Tor also has an ITT just under 4 tonight, though Vegas has the game leaning under. As a team Tor’s scoring is up and Det is giving up more goals the last few weeks. Det is the 13th best DVPL5 against D, but overall it seems Reilly is in a nice spot tonight.
Ristoleinan ( Buf). With his price ($5200) being 700 less than DK it would seem there is some value here. Buf has the 30th ranked CF, going up against the NYR 31st CA. so a team that doesn’t shoot much against a team that gives up lots of shot opportunities. The moveable object against the stoppable force. However, Risto only brings 2.3x value, with an avg of 12pts/g. For 100 bucks more, go up 1 player on this list.
Pulock ( NYI) has a cost of $4400 ( 200 less than DK). His is averaging 6.88 pts/g from SOGBS and a total average of 17.68 pts/g. If you need some saving for other positions, pairing Pulock with his 4x value with one of the Mid $5000 Dmen might be an option for you. In his last 5 game logs he has been in double digit FD points every game, with 2 in the 20s and 1 in the 40s. That’s not a bad risk for a $4400 “punt.” Both the Isles and BlackHawks have been giving up more shot attempts and more goals lately. This one could be that blow out we are always looking for.
Dumba ( Min) has been a fairly steady performer lately, with an avg of 15pts/g for a 3.2x value. Min is up against Nash tonight, who may be looking for revenge after finally losing last time out. Rinne will likely be looking for a better outing. The other side of that coin is the Preds could get caught looking ahead to their game tomorrow night against Winnipeg, as those 2 teams have developed a solid rivalry this season. If you go two cheap D men though, at $4800 Dumba may be one to consider.
Slavin (Car). I was surprised to find Slavin on my list as I was preparing this article. His cost is only $4600, and his averageof 16.4pts/g gives a nice 3.6x value. His SOGBS floor of 5.6 pts is perhaps a bit lower than we would like, but if it was up into the 7s he likely wouldn’t be this cheap. Car has an ITT of 3.2 goals over Ott, who have the look of a team just playing out the season without caring much. Car also has the number 2 CF and is facing the 29th CA that Ott has managed. Slavin also is getting some PP2 time. He should be one of your considerations if you are looking for cheap Dmen options for this slate.
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Cheers.
JD