NHL DFS Advice for 3/27/2018
NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and DFS. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your line-up. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 9-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
OTT 1: Duchene, Dzingel, Ryan – They’ve scored seven goals in the last 10 games and NYI 1 has given up seven in the last ten as well and also given up three in the last three games. This game may go a bit over looked, especially on the OTT side. I think there is a good chance both teams score a ton tonight.
CBJ 3: Jenner, Wennberg, Vanek – This is the highest scoring line over the last ten games on this slate with 12. EDM isn’t known for their defensive prowess either. Jenner is a lock and load for me in cash, Vanek is viable as well.
PIT 1: Crosby, Hornqvist, Guentzel – Since Malkin has cooled off, Crosby has heated up and PIT has moved Hornqvist to match up with the hot center. Both are very safe in all formats. I think Hornqvist has to be there and you just need to make a decision between McJesus and Crosby for cash.
Honorable Mentions: ANA 1, EDM 1, CAR 3, NJ1-2, DET 1, NSH 2, BOS 1, WPG 1-2
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Edler: Four points and 63 BSSOG in the last 11 games. He is basically the only Canuck worth anything DFS wise, but I don’t hate a mini GPP stack of Horvat/Edler. Edler is cash safe if you don’t use Gibson.
Pulock: Nine points, 49 BSSOG in the last ten games. His price never seems to rise even with his rock solid floor and also a very good ceiling.
Kevan Miller: Speaking solid cash game floors and low prices. Miller has four points and 44 BSSOG over the last 11 games. I don’t like this game a lot for DFS purposes but Miller offers salary savings to pay up for studs elsewhere.
Honorable Mentions: Pietrangelo, Burns, Vatanen, Gostisbehere, Provorov, Jones, Nurse
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict. Just like a pitcher in baseball, they can come out flat. And once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Gibson: 6-2-1/3 shutouts/2.11/0.929/-217 I generally don’t lock in road goalies for cash, but today your cash game options are Gibson and then everyone else. VAN is terrible and ANA has been scoring a bit more lately. Half of Gibby’s wins recently have been shutouts. Just ride out this hot streak.
Rinne: 5-2-0/2 shutouts/1.86/0.940/-160 Pekka is looking to rebound from a bad night against TOR a couple nights ago. MIN is gunning for playoff positioning but they struggle on the road. I think Rinne is safe in all formats.
Kinkaid: 6-1-0/1 shutout/2.51/0.931 Kinkaid is my GPP special tonight. CAR can put up a ton of shots but they just aren’t that good. NJ is desperately trying to get one of the two wild card spots and this is a very winnable game for them.
Honorable Mentions: Bobrovsky, Jones, Allen