Follow me on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh
Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How!
POINT GUARDS:
* Not a ton of good statistical (aDvP) matchups for point guards on tonight’s slate…
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs CHA)
CHA is the 8th-best aDvP matchup for a point guard this season- tops on today’s slate. Just taking a look back at how some point guards have done vs CHA recently- Kris Dunn crushed them on Friday and Jordan Clarkson on Saturday. This should be a fine play whether Paul George is inactive or not. If George is out, though, Westbrook becomes more of a necessity.
Terry Rozier (BOS @ CHI)
Kyrie has been ruled out for tonight’s game, making Rozier the chalkiest play of the evening. He has already been playing about 23-27 minutes while producing at a phenomenal rate off the bench. Rozier has never started an NBA game, so that’s probably a good sign this will be the case once again – just because he’s coming off the bench, it doesn’t mean he’s dead.
Rajon Rondo (NO @ HOU)
Keith and I talked about Rondo’s situation at great length on today’s podcast – Keith is not a fan, which makes sense… Rondo could draw Chris Paul and HOU is the worst aDvP matchup in the NBA for point guards. However, it would make more sense for the Rockets to use Paul against Jrue Holiday instead. Rondo is going to be chalky one way or the other, especially with Jameer Nelson ruled out, but I don’t think the matchup is as dubious as we may have led on during the pod. To close, Rondo becomes more of a necessity with AD is inactive.
** PAY UP TO BE CONTRARIAN:
Chris Paul (HOU vs NO)
NO is the best matchup for shooting guards this season, and that’s where Paul will likely spend half of his time on the court. Paul will likely go overlooked by the public because of his price and Harden usually soaks up most of the ownership.
Damian Lillard (POR @ GSW)
Lillard’s road numbers have been surprisingly better this season, and he is from Oakland so that annual narrative comes back to the forefront. It is worth noting that Lillard will have a tougher matchup if Shaun Livingston (11th in DRPM out of 92-point guards) ends up getting the start once again; Livingston is a lengthy defender (who doesn’t give a damn about the offensive end) that can cause headaches for the opposition.
** SITUATIONAL:
Kris Dunn (CHI vs BOS)
HUGE discount on DraftKings, as opposed to FanDuel… $6100 DK / $7700 FD. It’ll be interesting to see how the Celtics deploy their defense now with the Kyrie news, but you would think Marcus Smart spends most of his night making sure Dunn can’t pop off.
** CAUTION:
Kemba Walker (CHA @ OKC)
This isn’t necessarily a caution to fade Kemba, but it’s worth noting that his numbers don’t automatically increase without Batum in the lineup. In fact, Kemba’s usage rate only climbs 0.2% with Batum off the floor.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
James Harden (HOU vs NO)
Beard Bobblehead Night!!! Oh yeah, and Harden has crushed the Pelicans historically. Part of the appeal with guards against the Pelicans is because that’s where most of a team’s offense funnels to- with two massive shot blockers down low, why even try down there?
Tyreke Evans (MEM vs MIA)
MIA has some weak spots on the defensive end and I feel like Tyreezy is in a great spot to expose most of them. The Vegas line on MEM has been rapidly increasing all day, meaning this is probably a sneaky spot worth looking into. Tyreezy has posted upwards of 5-7x value in three of the last five games.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA @ OKC)
With Batum out for the Hornets, Lamb’s outlook is exponentially better. In fact, Lamb leads the Hornets in minutes while Batum is off the court and gets a slight usage bump to 24.5%. This will be Lamb’s first game in a few days after missing some time with a bruised shin. Put some ice on it, kid. Let’s go!
Eric Gordon (HOU vs NO)
The first round of the Domination Station had a ton of E-Gordy in it, but he’s been anything but dependable of late. We talked about it on today’s podcast and it seems like Paul’s success is starting to eat into Gordon’s. However, the Rockets are huge favorites tonight, and I can at least see a scenario in which Gordon gets in there and runs it up – Keep in mind, NO is the best matchup in the NBA for shooting guards.
** SITUATIONAL:
E’Twaun Moore (NO @ HOU)
In my opinion, Moore is only viable if AD misses tonight’s game. It is worth noting, however, that Moore has played at least 37 minutes in each of the last four games… even with AD in the lineup. The production, though, is what has not come all that consistently.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Kevin Durant / Andre Iguodala (GS vs POR)
Since joining the Warriors, KD has posted at least 51 DKP/48 FDP four times in six games- in one of those games, he only played 20 minutes. Iguodala is still playing nearly 30 minutes per game and his price won’t run you much at all; he was basically a mere bystander for the KD show last game vs DET but did perform well in the two games before that.
Jaylen Brown (BOS @ CHI)
CHI has been a favorable matchup for shooting guards this season, and now Brown’s outlook has been boosted exponentially with Kyrie being inactive. If Horford is inactive, we are looking at a great opportunity for Brown.
Paul George (OKC vs CHA)
Late word has PG13 in the starting lineup, and it’s worth noting that CHA has surprisingly been a favorable matchup for small forwards this season.
Josh Richardson (MIA @ MEM)
Richardson has played at least 30 minutes in each of the last five games, and some of his best nights have come while Hassan Whiteside has been inactive… just as he is tonight.
OG Anunoby (TOR @ LAC)
Played 60 minutes combined over the last two games and he is becoming more of a staple in the Raptors rotation. His success is anything but guaranteed as the fifth-option in the Raptors starting five, but I do like those minutes at such a cheap price.
** SITUATIONAL:
POWER FORWARDS:
Draymond Green (GS vs POR)
Last 19 games (including playoffs) vs POR – averaging 47.5 DKP/49 FDP, only one game with fewer than 39 DKP and two games fewer than 39 FDP over that span.
Jayson Tatum (BOS @ CHI)
CHI is the best aDvP matchup on this slate for power forwards. Tatum’s minutes already have a positive outlook with Marcus Morris out and become exponentially better if Horford is inactive.
Serge Ibaka (TOR @ LAC)
LAC in the 2nd-best aDvP matchup on this slate for power forwards… Ibaka has been very consistent of late, finishing right around 30 FDP in each of the last five games and really pounded the Suns in a great matchup for nearly 40 FDP.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR @ GS)
It looks like Aminu has finally gotten back in the groove and is now playing more minutes- 31 and 35 in each of the last two games. For all the stigma there is out there about Dray and the Warriors defense, this has been a favorable matchup for power forwards this season.
** SITUATIONAL:
Anthony Davis (NO @ HOU)
Below, is how AD fared against the Rockets last season – the ones highlighted in green are the games while Boogie was a member of the Pelicans. Of course, we have to make sure AD is playing tonight, but he’s always a threat in GPPs because of how low-owned he’ll likely be.
CENTERS:
DeMarcus Cousins (NO vs HOU)
Boogie faced HOU twice last season as a member of the Pelicans, and the results were fantastic. Keep in mind, Boogie only played 28 minutes last night, so he should have less fatigue than his teammates on the back-end of a B2B. The Rockets are currently 13-point favorites, which gives me some hesitance about paying up that much, but AD could be inactive tonight and that would make Boogie a bigger necessity.
Stephen Adams (OKC vs CHA)
CHA is actually the 5th-worst aDvP matchup for opposing centers, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on Adams in this instance. He’s not that expensive and has performed well in plenty of tough matchups this season. It’s a risk, no doubt, but one that might be worth it in GPPs.
** PAYING UP TO BE CONTRARIAN:
Marc Gasol (MEM vs MIA)
I’m not in love with his price, but the same love I had for Evans (because of the MEM spread in Vegas) in the shooting guard section is why I like Gasol. You can probably do better $/PT-wise by going with Adams, but I don’t mind paying up for Gasol in GPPs.
** MATCHUP-BASED:
Jonas Valanciunas / Jacob Poeltl (TOR @ LAC)
LAC is the best matchup for a center on tonight’s slate- 3rd in the NBA this season. The Domination Station had a lot of Poeltl on the initial update, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens after the later one.
** SITUATIONAL:
Aron Baynes (BOS @ CHI)
CHI is one of the worst matchups for centers this season, but Baynes becomes a competent value option if Horford is inactive. Baynes just played 26 minutes yesterday vs DET, finishing with six points and 13 rebounds.