With Fanduel and Draftkings both offering 1 million dollars week 1 (and Draftkings offering 1 Billion dollars), I expect a lot of new players to be entering money into these sites for these slates. Even some of you reading this piece are new players. My goal of this article is to look at a few ways that we see football through behavior biases. I will then discuss whether or not that is true and how we can attack those spots week 1. As a tournament player, I try to use things like player psychology to try to gain an edge on how people are thinking. For this first article, because it is so apparent, I want to talk about defenses. Defenses are not that sexy, but picking the right ones to target are very important.
FREEROLL ALERT – Fantasy Draft is Running a $25,000 FREEROLL For Week 3 of the NFL Preseason
Bias 1: Going into 2017, everyone is going to play the defense against the Jets. Therefore, everyone is going to play the Bills D week 1
I get it. The J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS SUCK. They really do. Their WRs suck so bad. Their quarterback is a mid 30s player who is a great backup, but never a great starter. But let’s examine the Bills D for a hot second before we blindly follow this trend.
One of the things that is really favoring the Bills right now (and why I wish I was in Vegas) is that they are favored by a touchdown in a low scoring game. Vegas, currently, sees the game being a 24-17 football game.
However, a deep dive into the Bills makes me worry. First off, the entire front office and coaching staff are gone. They hired Sean McDermott as head coach in January. They also got rid of the GM post draft and brought in Brandon Beane. Having a new front office and coaching staff does not make me feel warm and fuzzy about a team being ready to go by week 1.
Second, here are the returning starters for the Bills defense: DT Kyle Williams and DT Marcel Darreus. Yes, 2 out of 11 starters from last year are gone. Basically we have a brand new front office, a brand new coaching staff, and brand new players. Even if these players were the best in the business (which they are not), there would be growing pains working together in a real system on a real football Sunday.
Now, let us look at the Jets. First off, the two things the Jets have are: good running backs and a good run defense. Both of these things are bad for the Bills. First off, the Bills ranked 30th in run defense last year. The two returning starters, Williams and Darreus, are pass rushing DT and SUCK against the run. The edge rushers they brought in also suck against the run. The Jets offensive line also was not terrible ranking 14th running on left tackle, 10th running down the middle, and 13th running off the right tackle. The Bills defensive line in those same categories ranked 15th, 20th, and 15th. Basically, the Jets that we all think are going to suck have been better at run blocking than the Bills are at stopping the run. That makes for a dangerous case when you are wanting to play a defense.
For the Jets run defense, they rank 1st off the left end, 8th on left tackle, 5th down the middle, 14th on right tackle, and 15th off the right end. The Bills offensive line in those categories ranked 12th, 30th, 9th, 20th, and 14th. The Jets D-line struggles on the right side. The Bills also struggle there for run blocking. When the Bills offense will revolve around shady, it does not feel good knowing that they are facing a staunch run D who is good where their o-line is good. Also, with all the new WR additions and departures, the receiving corps for Buffalo are not scary so the Jets will also be able to load the box.
The Bills D could be a good play. However, with every tout site saying they are 100% Bills D so far, their ownership will be through the roof. It is my belief that this is only based on the assumption that the Jets will go 0-16 so the defense against them must do well. I do not see it that way and will be fading them come week 1.
If you have been thinking of joining the DFS Army team but aren’t quite sure – this is your chance to get a month of free membership ($29 Value). Just sign up for a new account and make your initial deposit of $20 or more on any of the following sites. You must use the links below to qualify:
Every one of these links include the latest and best promotional offers from the sites listed. Most have a deposit match rake back offer and some number of free entries to various contests for new depositors. I’m not detailing them above because they change on occasion. Just know they are juiced up with the best current promotions. We also give all of our new members links to download two Daily Fantasy Football full length strategy books which you will have access to as well.
**Remember these must be NEW depositing accounts via the above links. Existing accounts are not eligible for the free month.
In order to qualify for the free month of DFS Army Membership (This applies to current DFS Army Members as well) you simply click through one of the links above and set up a new depositing account on that site. Then email us at [email protected] with the site you registered for and the username you chose. We will get back to you with a code for a free month of DFS Army VIP membership. It’s that simple.
DFS Army VIP Membership – Limited time offer
We are rolling out a pre-season special for the month of August. My first suggestion is to take advantage of one or more of the free month offers above. I’d rather you put some cash in your bankroll rather then giving it to us up front. If you already have existing DFS accounts or just don’t want to add any new ones – simply go to DFS Army VIP Membership Registration – and use promo code: FIGHTON to get 20% off your monthly membership. Remember that our VIP memberships include coverage for all sports and your 20% discount locks in for as long as you remain a member.
Register For DFS Army VIP Membership! Easiest way to jump in is this link…. DFSARMY VIP!
Bias 2: The teams that have sucked for the last 5 years must suck on defense
This one is the key for me week 1 when deciding to play a defense. A new player will scroll through the defenses and pick the Bills as mentioned above or go to Arizona, Seattle, Denver or New England because those are either talked about defenses or extremely good teams. They avoid the Bears, the Jaguars, even a team that was dominant two years ago but fell off the map last year in the Carolina Panthers.
Week 1, I am not picking the Bears. They will be in my player pool in coming weeks, however I am not going to pick on the Falcons. The Bears have sneakily gathered one of the best front 7s in football and with everyone finally healthy, will be a force to reckon with in week 2 against the Buccaneers.
The Jaguars and Panthers, on the other hand, are my two top defenses for week 1. The Jaguars have a top 5 run D. You read that right, THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS have a good defense. It was shocking to me when I did research so I know it is something that will catch other people off guard. Their cornerbacks are also nasty. Last year, the one place they did struggle was against slot WRs. However week 1 they will be facing the Deshaun Watson led Texans in an offense that will focus on running the football (or trying to) against this top 5 run D. They are also without slot WR Will Fuller who broke his collar bone and will have to rely on Braxton Miller in the slot.
I see this Jaguars D getting home easily and shutting them down in the run game making Watson’s first career game a bumpy one. The Jaguars rank as the 3rd lowest priced defense on Fanduel and I see them as an amazing low dollar play. Draftkings has them in the top 5, but I would again plug and play them anywhere.
The Panthers too have an amazing first round matchup. They get the 49ers who also are not good. The main reason that the Panthers defense struggled last year was that their defense failed to get home leaving their average cornerbacks on islands in the secondary. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees tore them up because of this. With the linebackers being the best linebacker group in football and finally healthy, I see them as getting home early and often week 1.
I think there is a big bias to exploit here. With all the new casual players joining, they will target offenses and defenses that they know from history are good. As I continue this primer leading up to the season, you will see me talk about different biases in different position groups and how to really attack them and gain an edge week 1.
DFS Army VIP Membership
If you are reading this and not part of the Army and want to hear more from me and the other experts click the link below and use the promo code: FIGHTON to get 20% off your monthly subscription. Trust me, it is worth the money. I became an army member about two years ago and the tools that we have have transformed me into a profitable player.
Fighton2016