Welcome to week 12 of the daily fantasy football season. This is a special DFS Army VIP only breakdown. I’m incredibly thankful that you all have put your trust in me these past few years. Our goal remains to be the most dominant DFS team in the industry. We took two more steps in that direction this week. Hunter Sinclair is headed to the Bahamas to take part in the live King of the Beach final. That takes place this weekend and we will all be rooting him on. Make sure to check in on the #questions-for-kevin channel in our slack forums where I expect we will be hashing out potential lineup decisions. In addition, slack regular
In addition, slack regular efulton secured first place in the primetime slate on Monday night good for a cool $25,000 prize. I’m sure we will get him on one of the podcasts to talk about the lineup and the sweat. What a season!!
I love the Thanksgiving slate. It’s been incredibly profitable for me over the years plus who doesn’t love a day where you can watch every game in full. Normally I avoid doing writeups on short slates of games exclusively. There is generally a ton of luck involved when it comes to two game slates. Look at this past prime time slate. The perfect lineup will have foregone Jordan Reed for Jared Cook. It may have Aaron Rodgers but none of his WR’s in it. Very strange stuff. Still, the whole reason we play Daily Fantasy Football is to make the games more exciting to watch and there’s nothing like pairing up football with incredible food, family and money on the line.
Thanksgiving Day Vegas Lines Analysis
At Detroit -2.5 Minnesota 43
The slate starts out with the lowest projected game. When you have two games projected for 49+ points on a three-game slate it makes sense to stick with those. There are however a few plays worth considering in this one. The Vikings travel to Detroit in an important division game to take on the Lions. The Vikings are slight underdogs in this one.
One cool thing about this particular game – these teams played each other a couple of weeks back. That will give us a little extra insight as far as what might happen in this meeting. It’s also a bit of a warning to fade. Teams tend to play each other tougher defensively in the second meeting of the season. That effect is amplified when the first meeting was recent.
The Vikings are a top Defense ranking 5th and 9th respectively (DVOA) vs the pass and run. Between that ranking and the low total, this game as a whole loses some luster, particularly on the Lions side of the equation. A deeper look at the stats shows that the only two areas of vulnerability so far this season for the Vikings Defense has been to TE’s and pass catching RB’s. I’m not saying they are bad vs TE’s but they are ranked 19th overall vs the position. When a team is great at stopping opposing pass catchers, the targets tend to get funneled a bit to the TE position putting a surging Eric Ebron squarely on the Turkey Day map. Ebron has been solid since returning from injury. He’s got three games in a row with 70+ yards and has been seeing a generous target share in the Lions offense. When these teams faced off in week 9, Ebron went 7 of 8 for 92 yards. Another player on the radar for the Lions is Theo Riddick. Riddick has been remarkably consistent since Abdullah went down earlier this season. The Vikings have been somewhat vulnerable to pass-catching RB’s ranking an average 13th in DVOA vs that position. In week 9 Riddick was kept in check for the most part. He did find some running room to the tune of 70 yards on 14 carries, but he didn’t do much damage in the passing game. Looking at the WR group for the Lions, they are a fade for the most part. If you feel the need to use one of them for contrarian purposes, I’d lean towards Tate. I’d expect Xavier Rhodes to be all over Marvin Jones Jr in this contest. That should funnel any targets not intended for Ebron or Riddick over to Tate. In the week 9 meeting, Tate saw a ton of volume and was able to turn in a solid 25 point performance. The way the game went down, it looks like the Vikings sold out to stop Riddick out of the backfield and Tate benefitted. We can’t know how this game will go down but based on the negative correlation between Tate and Riddick, I’d say one or the other in a lineup is ok but definitely don’t pair them both up.
The Vikings will be facing a Lions Defense that has not been good at all this season. The Lions are ranked last vs the pass and 25th vs the run according to DVOA. Fire up Stefon Diggs for this contest! In the last meeting of these teams, Diggs was a targets and efficiency machine hauling in 13 of 14 passes for a pedestrian 80 yards. Diggs is priced at a reasonable $6600 on Fanduel and is a borderline all in play at that price. Cordarrelle Patterson and Adam Thielen are bit players in this offense and not worth a roster spot in all but the largest of GPP contests. The Lions Defense, much like the actual City of Detroit, are equally shitty in just about every area. I often hear about how they are at the bottom of the league vs the TE position. Yes, that’s true, but they also suck against WR’s and RB’s. That said, we have to consider Kyle Rudolph in this spot. Rudolph disappointed in the week 9 game catching 1 pass for a lineup saving TD. He could have a bigger game this time out or he could deliver a donut. That’s the nature of the TE position. Make sure to spread exposure around. Finally, we have to consider Lions Defense here. Yup, you read that correctly. Even though I just got finished comparing the suckiness of the Lions Defense to the actual suckiness of the City of Detroit, they are at home and this is the lowest projected game of the slate. Looking around at the options, there simply aren’t any good or obvious ones. I’m expecting the Vikings to be the chalk for good reason. They are the best defense going this weekend. The thing is, the Vikings are also the worst offense going. We could do worse than taking a stab at Lions D in this spot.
**Geek’s Supplemental Notes – I’ll have a ton of exposure to Diggs on Thanksgiving. I also like Kyle Rudolph. In lineups where I’m using both guys, might as well get Bradford at the helm. If Diggs AND Rudolph make GPP winning value, chances are Bradford has a big game too. That plus the fact that Bradford is cheap and opens up possibilities elsewhere in your lineups.
Elite Plays: Stefon Diggs, Eric Ebron, Kyle Rudolph, Vikings Defense
Secondary: Theo Riddick, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerrick Mckinnon, Sam Bradford
At Dallas -7 Washington 49
In the second game of the Thanksgiving slate, we have a division contest between two red-hot offenses. The Redskins travel to Dallas as fairly heavy underdogs in a game Vegas sees as high scoring.
Dallas defense has actually been really solid vs the run this season ranking 6th overall according to their DVOA numbers. They have not been as solid against the pass coming in ranked 25th in that category. On paper, this seems like a solid spot for Cousins and his pass catchers. Digging a little deeper, Dallas is actually ranked 30th vs the TE position. The Redskins happen to have a pretty good TE in Jordan Reed. Reed is the top projected TE for the Thanksgiving slate and we are going to want some exposure. The Redskins actually spread out targets quite evenly when it comes to their WR corps. Last week we saw big games from all three of their WR trio of Jackson, Crowder, and Garcon. It took a monster day from Cousins to bring value back to all those guys. If I was forced to pick a favorite, I’m leaning Crowder but it’s more of a guess than anything else. I’m comfortable running out Cousins naked in the short slate. Cousins is the cheapest of the big 4 QB’s and spreads the ball around to the point where a stack is not a necessity. At RB we saw a big performance from Fat Rob Kelley last weekend. I am not expecting anywhere near a repeat performance in this one. The Packers defense basically broke last week. That type of thing happens to road teams in blowouts. It won’t happen here. Still, Kelley is so cheap on the DFS sites ($5700 on Fanduel, $4300 Draftkings) that he’s worth a look as a salary saver. I prefer Gore for just a smidge more cap space.
Dallas faces a Redskins defense that is currently ranked 30th overall against enemy RB’s. In case you haven’t been paying attention, Dallas drafted a pretty good running back this year. Ezekiel Elliott is set up for a monster day at home. Imagine what Eddie Lacy will do to the turkey he is being served this Thanksgiving. There will be grunting, and slurping and bits of meat flying everywhere with nothing left at the end but a clean turkey carcass. That’s what Zeke Elliott is going to do to the Redskins defense this Thursday. If the Redskins are able to make a game of this I would expect another heavy dose of Dez Bryant. Dez has averaged 9 targets per game since his week 8 return to the lineup. Here’s how I’m playing this. If I’m using Dak Prescott in a lineup, I’m stacking him with Dez. I don’t see a ton of ways that Dak returns value without a big game from Bryant. Cole Beasley and Jason Witten continue to see a decent share of the targets for the Cowboys. Both don’t tend to get a ton of yardage however and are TD-dependent. It’s noteworthy that Josh Norman will likely shadow Dez Bryant in this game. I’m not sure I believe that Norman is capable of shutting Dez down but there is an argument for fading Dez in favor of Beasley and Witten in this game.
**Geek’s Supplemental Notes – I see this game going down in one of two ways. The first scenario has the Cowboys dominating at home and the Redskins playing catch up. That gamescript favors Zeke Elliott for the Cowboys alongside a Cousins stack. The other scenario is a back and forth shootout. The shootout is less likely according to the Vegas line for the game but if it happens it would favor Dez Bryant over Elliott for the Cowboys. Both scenarios should bode well for Cousins and his pass catchers. Applying this to lineup construction, I’ll prefer Leveon Bell as my stud RB play in lineups in which I’m using Dez Bryant. I’ll also stack one of Dez or Zeke (not both) in most of my Cousins stacked lineups.
Elite Plays: Zeke Elliott, Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins, Dez Bryant, Rob Kelley
Secondary: Jae Crowder, Desean Jackson, Cole Beasley, Pierre Garcon
Stacks: Dak-Dez, Cousins-Reed, Naked Cousins, Dak-Dez-Reed, Cousins-Reed-Dez
Pittsburgh -6 At Indianapolis 50.5
The Colts Defense is arguably the worst in the league this season. They are 30th and 32nd vs the pass and run respectively. What I’m saying here is that Leveon Bell will be facing the worst ranked run defense in the league. ALL IN. As far as the Pittsburgh pass catchers, Antonio Brown is the man. Vontae Davis was seen in a walking boot on Monday. Even if he plays he won’t be able to slow Brown. The big question is if the Steelers will even need to pass a ton in a game that could easily become an early blowout. The Steelers are rolling out Eli Rogers as their WR2. Rogers is a reasonable WR punt in a week where it will be important to find some salary relief.Chalk Alert! This is the game to target for DFS purposes! Close game in a dome with a 53.5 point total? Yes, please!
News just hit that Andrew Luck is in the concussion protocol and there is a good chance he won’t be available for this game. That changes the entire dynamic of the three-game slate. I can’t see loading up on Colts offensive players with Tolzien trotting out as the starting QB. It doesn’t help that this is a short week and there simply won’t be much opportunity to practice for the Colts. The original line for this game had the Steelers at -3 with a 53.5 point total. The Luck news moved the Steelers up to -6 and the line down to 50.5. The team totals are Steelers: 28.25 and Colts: 22.25. It’s noteworthy that the Colts are still projected to score three TD’s.
I’m really not sure how to approach the Colts on offense. I always like minimum salary QB’s on Fanduel. In a week where I’m trying to pair up Leveon Bell and Zeke Elliott in my lineups, a min salary QB opens up some interesting possibilities. I’m probably not paying stud salary for T.Y. Hilton in this game. If Luck was in there I’d be heavily invested but Tolzien is too much of a wildcard for me. If I need to use a Colts pass catcher I’d lean toward Moncrief. He’s cheaper and plays the possession WR role that is probably more suited to this situation. The loss of Luck is a negative for Frank Gore as well. The Steelers should be able to jump out to a very quick lead. Not the type of game script that would favor Gore at all. In addition, without much of a QB threat, I could see the Steelers stacking the box further limiting Gore’s potential in this one. At TE, it’s a committee situation for the Colts with Just Jack and Dwayne Allen both getting looks. I’m fading that situation completely.
For the Steelers, it’s all systems go. The Colts possess one of the worst defenses in the league according to their DVOA numbers. They are 32nd vs the run and 30th vs the pass. Leveon Bell is licking his chops right now. Bell is the most obvious cash/GPP/ALL IN play of the slate. The primary pass catchers for the Steelers are Antonio Brown and Eli Rogers. Brown is an obvious every week stud and a player that the Colts will not be able to slow. The only question I have with Brown is how much the Steelers will actually need to use him in this one. Eli Rogers makes for a nice salary saving option this week. Rogers has secured the #2 WR role for the Steelers and has seen at least 5 targets in the past three games, including a 10 target game. Rogers is not necessarily a touchdown threat but he falls in a similar category to players like Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Corderrelle Patterson in that we are forced to choose from this group and hope for the best in order to get Bell or Elliott into our lineups. The Steelers are running a TEBC right now with Green and the Outlaw. I’m fading both completely.
***Geeks Supplemental Notes – I was a bit suprised that the total for this game remained over 50 points considering the likely loss of Andrew Luck. The line actually suggests that the Colt’s offense remains playable this spot. I have my doubts about that but the fact that the Colts are playing at home is at least a slight plus for them. Leveon Bell remains the top play of this slate for me. I know it’s obvious but sometimes obvious is obvious for a reason. It doesn’t take much for a player like Antonio Brown to make value in a small slate. With Hilton reduced to a GPP contrarian longshot without Luck, the choices at WR have been slimmed down. We have Dez and Brown at the higher end of the pay scale. Then its Diggs all by himself. The lower tier includes names like Crowder, Garcon, Tate, Rogers, Moncrief, Beasley etc. A couple of these WR’s will have big days and some will be extreme disappointments. If I choose to game stack the Steelers v Colts I’m probably going to go with either Moncrief or Gore as my Colts exposure. I could even see a scenario that uses Bell, Brown, Moncrief and Tolzien in a single Fanduel lineup.
Elite Plays: Leveon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers Defense
Secondary: Tolzien (Fanduel Only), Eli Rogers, Frank Gore, Moncrief
Thats it for this Thanksgiving DFS Army VIP Only Vegas lines column. I added in some supplemental notes on each game to give a better understanding of how I plan to put lineups together for this particular slate. Good luck and remember that when you’re in doubt – let Vegas take the wheel.