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Daily Fantasy Football Strategy – You’re Not That Good – Fanduel and Draftkings Wisdom From the Geek

Daily Fantasy Football Strategy – You’re Not That Good – Fanduel and Draftkings Wisdom From the Geek 


At the moment of this writing it is the NFL off-season and some of you know that I like to dabble in the alternative sports when football isn’t on to get my weekly DFS fix. Anyway I’d been playing in the MMA contests since Draftkings started running them back in  December. I don’t consider myself an expert in MMA analysis so for the most part I’ve stuck with Multi-GPP entries. The strategy has been working well for me and I’ve taken 1st place in a good number of MMA contests recently and all in all posted a decent ROI.

Whats does all of this have to do with Daily Fantasy Football Strategy? I’m working up to it so bear with me. This past week I was putting together lineups for the next scheduled MMA event on Draftkings. I noticed some names of players I recognize from this blog or the industry in general sitting there looking for HtH matchups so I decided to jump in on some HtH action. I started thinking and thinking about the best possible lineup for an HtH contest. Obviously I should play things a bit conservative and try to put together a sure thing lineup. Maybe even take two fighters going in the same fight to guarantee and catch at least one winner. The event was UFC Fight Night 71 and the Main Event was Mir versus Duffy. I loves me some Frank Mir and was all over him in my GPP entries. Mir was the underdog and I was hoping he made for an excellent value pick in GPP’s. For the HTH I second guessed myself and tried to squeeze together as many favorites as I could on to one card. I figured that was the conservative/safe play in an HtH. I used Duffy in my HtH lineup and he went on to get knocked out within 2 minutes netting a grand total of 3 fantasy points (to the 115 pts that Mir put up). Of course I went on to lose most of the HtH entries I jumped in on. (I’m looking at you Gravycakes and bbbomb)

What’s All This Got To Do With Daily Fantasy Football?

The whole episode got me thinking about my Daily Fantasy Football strategy and what has been working for me in the past. In the “Secrets from The Pros” book we give out in our Free DFS Strategy eBook Promotion we find out through interviews with top DFS names that there are two basic types of players. Those that come up with one optimal lineup and use it over and over, versus those that make lots of lineups. I’ve seen countless arguments from statisticians and so called experts falling on either side of this argument. None of which were completely convincing one way or the other.

So What Is The Right Answer?

How is it possible that after interviewing successful DFS Pros, two styles and philosophies, both polar opposites with one another, can each produce successful results? The answer is to know yourself and understand what type of DFSer you want to be. Are you looking to play for the Monday Sweats and the big GPP victory or are you content to grind out small profits each week? Are you good enough at projections and lineup construction to feel confident that your one final lineup is good enough to win with? If so then by all means follow the likes of CONDIA and the others that make one lineup and lay all of their action on it.


GPP Philosophy – More Lineups Are Better


Last season I placed 2nd in a 32K person GPP FDFFC Qualifier. I had entered 40+ lineups in that contest. In Daily Fantasy Football we generally get one slate of games per week. If an average DFSer entered one lineup in a 32K person tournament each week statistically it would take them about a hundred lifetimes to put up a 1st place lineup. The odds are staggering. The only way to mitigate those odds particularly in larger GPP’s is to enter lots of lineups. I’m not saying its not possible to put up one lineup and win a GPP. It happens all the time. The player that beat me in that qualifier had just one bullet going. What I’m saying is that statistically the odds are stacked against you. If you scan the top finishers in most of the larger GPP’s one constant is that the winner will have some players on their squad with low ownership numbers. Entering a diverse and varied group of lineups around a core group of all in players is the way the top Pros do it. When your core group works out you have a great chance at a Monday sweat and the potential for a GPP win. When creating GPP lineups I’ll occasionally purposefully go away from the games that everyone is on. It’s kind of like the Thursday night effect where most people entering those contests overuse players from the Thursday game because they want to have players to root for when they watch the game. We generally fade most if not all of the players going on Thursday in GPP’s to get what could amount to an edge if the game is disappointing for fantasy purposes.


Cash Game Philosophy – You’re Not That Good – Use Both

I am a big believer in variance. In a given week when Julio Jones and Dez Bryant are both priced equally and both facing similar defenses. Is it really possible to project which one will score more fantasy points? I don’t think so or at least I don’t think I’m that good. When people ask me who should they use, Julio or Dez my answer is always the same. Use both. Make two lineups.  Even better would be to diversify both lineups further by making one Ryan to Julio and the other Tony to Dez. You may even gain some salary relief in the Romo lineup to apply to another area of need. The point is that HtH or Cash entries can be diversified over a large number of lineups to reduce risk without diminishing the expected scores. No one is good enough to accurately predict what will happen in a live sporting event with 100% certainty. Laying all your eggs in one lineup is a risky proposition. Injuries happen. Players disappoint. There is an element of luck involved. Therefore It pays to diversify in cash games. That said the difference between cash and GPP lineups is that in cash there is no need to get away from scratch plays. Unlike GPP’s, in cash lineup construction we don’t bother worrying about what our opponent may or may not be doing. We can stick to high floor players going in games with high O/U’s or facing crap defenses or whatever criterion you like to use for your cash lineups.