UFC 301 and our DFS MMA cash picks and strategy for Pantoja vs Erceg on May 4th starts here! This time we have a 13-fight card taking place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. There are several very close matches on this card which will make for some interesting choices in your tournament builds. But, that’s not what this article is about. My goal is to help navigate you through this interesting card and find some solid fighters to begin your cash game construction with.
For you 1st time readers, welcome and I hope you enjoy the article. For all you regular readers, you will notice a change. Moving forward I am going to gear this article for cash games. If you want my full thoughts on the entire card, you can find them in our MMA coaches notes Yes, I know everyone wants to win that big tournament win! But a major point we make here at DFS Army is proper bankroll management. A major part of that is, of course, cash games. It may not be the sexiest way to build your bankroll but, over time it can be the most consistent. I would love to hear any feedback on this new format, and I look forward to helping everyone learn the art of creating a solid cash game lineup.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Plus the 2020 NBA season has started off right where we left off last season. We just had a huge win by a member last Saturday in MMA! You name the sport from NBA to MMA, and we cover it! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 20% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news!
MMA UFC 301 Cash Game Basics for DFS
In cash games, unlike tournaments, we are trying to build a solid floor with our lineups. Many times that may mean using a fighter with great odds to win or taking someone who is severely mispriced. Cash games are often times card dependent. For example, if a fighter is expected to be chalky in cash games and I feel they are in a good spot I have no problem eating the chalk and just rostering him. After all, he’s chalky for a reason. One major difference between cash and tournament play is getting past your aversion to play the chalk. Often times, the chalk makes a lot of sense. (I’m going to use the word “chalk” a lot, if new, chalk is slang for “popular player.”) If you ever have any questions pertaining to cash games feel free to reach out to me on Twitter, or if you are a VIP shoot me a dm.
Apr 15, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Max Holloway (red gloves) fights Arnold Allen (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
DFS MMA UFC 301 Cash Core Plays
Michel Pereira (-650) 9.6k
Pereira is my favorite cash play in this 9k range. He is a -650 favorite. That means he is the most expensive and the biggest favorite on the entire slate. This fight is expected to end early with a Fight Ends ITD Prop of -500. Michel comes into this fight riding a 7 fight win streak and his last 2 wins have been ITD. I am locking Pereira into all my cash game builds and strongly suggest you do the same!!
Alexandre Pantoja (-185) 8.8k
Pantoja is another fighter I like on this card for cash games priced in the 8k range. This fight is expected to go into the later rounds and with this being the Main Event, that means we have up to 5 rounds of action Not only does Alexandre throw at a decent rate (4.32 SS’s per minute), but he also averages 2.2 TD’s. That means there are multiple ways for him to accrue points. I am even fine with him winning this via decision since his last 2 decision wins he has scored 142.7 and 143.2 DraftKings points. I have Pantoja locked in my own personal cash game build as we speak. I strongly suggest you do the same.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+285) 7k
In order to fit the higher-priced fighters on this card you are going to have to punt with an underdog or 2 on this card. Kowalkiewicz is my favorite cash punt on the entire UFC 301 card because she allows us the luxury to get 4 or more favorites into our cash game builds. I see no reason she doesn’t score 20-30 points in a decision loss, plus I wouldn’t be shocked if she got the win. This is the route I am taking on this card and I think you should entertain the thought as well.
Sure, these are MY favorite cash game plays, but maybe you play GPPs or like others. That’s fine…..you need tools, though. Our MMA UFC Research Station is locked and loaded with every related statistic in an easy to read, color coded fashion that cuts your research time down. It allows several fighters, like the ones I mentioned, to really pop at you and make DFS life easier. But, to access this beast, you need to become a member at DFSA…
And, if you are already a member, we have podcasts related to this UFC MMA card, as well as premium articles breaking down strategy and advice even further to #RaiseYourEdge over your competition. I’m sure you’ve seen our army helmets all over the leaderboards. We have not one, not two, but THREE of the top-ranked MMA players in the world coaching our members up on a weekly basis and helping them become better MMA DFS players. See Sniper’s GPP Article here.
MMA UFC Fight To Target In Hybrids/Tournaments
Now that we covered some cash plays. Let’s breakdown 1 fight I really think you should get exposure to in your hybrid and tournament lineups.
Myktybek Orolbai (-280) 9k vs Elves Brener (+210) 7.2k
This fight is basically 50/50 of going to decision. Both fighters have paths to putting up strong DFS scores and the winner of this fight has a strong chance to be in the optimal lineup. I will personally have a good amount of exposure to this fight in tournaments (north of 70%). This fight will score well for DraftKings purposes. My preferred play is Brener. He is not only the cheaper fighter, but he doesn’t have to do much in a win to exceed value in a win. Having said that be sure to get some exposure to Orolbai as well since he carries a -280 wins ITD prop. At their salaries though the winner of this fight should have no problems making the optimal lineup. If you plan on playing multiple lineups in UFC 301 tournaments this is a great fight to target both sides of in my opinion.
DFS MMA UFC 301 Standing 8-Count
Ok, that was a boxing reference to make sure you are still paying attention. I hope you all enjoyed the new format and I look forward to hearing your feedback. Be sure you check out our VIP Podcast! If you are new to the sport of MMA, let us teach you the fundamentals to go along with this be sure you check out our new tutorial on how to MME for MMA by our CEO Geek. Become a VIP at DFS Army right now!! Our mixture of content, tools, and coaching can take the best NBA player and teach him MMA like a boss in a very short time. We have NFL guys learning Nascar, and we even have people learning how to dominate the silent sport of tennis! That’s right…..major edge in tennis, and I help out there, too.
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Good Luck Army!