BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 17 Location – Mexico City, Mexico
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Mexico City. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $125k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. I do plan on going lighter than usual on this card though, so I might make 10 or less lineups this week. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Claudio Puelles $9,000 vs Marcos Mariano $7,200
Claudio Puelles
Age: 23
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Pitbull Martial Arts
From: Peru
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -290
We start off the card with a low-level fight. Claudio Puelles snatched victory from the jaws of defeat his last time out. He was completely dominated for 2.5 rounds, almost finished on more than one occasion, but pulled off a late third round submission. He hasn’t fought in over a year and has just fought one time since November 2016. He will be getting a winnable matchup against the 6-5 Marcos Mariano. Puelles is going to have the advantage of having fought in Mexico City in the past. Puelles is a southpaw with decent hands. His movement & distance control isn’t bad. He has a nice jab & good one-two. He has a good left hook, straight-right, as well as decent body & head kicks. He does have a head kick knockout on his record. Puelles doesn’t like getting hit. He was rocked & dropped by Silva in his last fight. He is also weak to the body. He was finished with body shots by Martin Bravo. In this fight, he is going to be at a significant reach disadvantage. He needs to close the distance here & get in the clinch or work for overhands. Puelles does have 2 KO/TKO’s but isn’t super dangerous on the feet. He has been knocked out once.
Claudio Puelles is going to need to grapple here. Puelles isn’t a bad wrestler. He has good timing on single & double legs. He has good ground & pound, nice, long punches & hammerfists. He stands up inside opponent’s guards & lands nice shots. He will try to throw the legs to side control. He will take the mount, land some ground & pound then take the back & lock in rear naked chokes. Puelles has 3 rear naked chokes. He will also pull guard and is comfortable on his back. He has fast hips & throws up fast armbars. He has very good leg locks. He will not only use them to sweep, but he got a knee bar on Silva in his last match. He has 5 career submissions & is going to have a major advantage on the ground. Puelles is a young guy & should be improving every time out. He proved his toughness in his last match. He was almost finished but stayed tough & ultimately got the come from behind submission. If Puelles can get this fight to the ground, even if he pulls guard, he should have a big advantage. On the feet, I think he will be out gunned, but his advantage on the mat is bigger than Mariano’s in the striking.
Marcos Mariano
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Killer Bees
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +245
Marcos Mariano got the call to the UFC on short notice. He suffered a first round submission loss to Lando Vannata. Mariano is a close friend of Anderson Silva, but primarily just a kick boxer. His ground game looks severally lacking. Mariano is a kick boxing world champion, and purely a striker. He is a very long fighter and has a wide stance. He has a good jab & heavy low kicks. He has a nice straight-right hand. He needs space to be successful, and throws a lot of front kicks, and front knees to the body. He has good distance control, and in & out movement. He is very wild and will throw a ton of spinning back kicks to the body, & head. Mariano doesn’t move his feet nearly enough for someone with no overhand defense. He also will lean back instead of moving his feet & is susceptible to overhands & head kicks. He doesn’t have big power, and he relies more on volume. He has 2 KO/TKO’s and has been TKO’d once.
Mariano is not a good grappler. His takedown defense is very bad & he will back himself up to the cage only making it easier. He is decent in the clinch, when he gets the plum he’s aggressive with knees & elbows. He can be taken down in the clinch very easily, along with doubles against the cage. It seems like he has no knowledge of how to defend double underhooks & just gets dumped. Off his back, he lies flat, and allows fighters to beat him up & get in dominant positions. He allows himself to get mounted & his submission defense is not good. In his fight vs Lando, he did show a little bit of improvement. He was able to re-guard and attacked with a sloppy omaplata. It looks like he’s learning a little bit, but still needs a lot of work. He was submitted in his last fight vs Lando Vannata who is a striker. He has been submitted three times in his career & has one submission. His cardio is not great, and he slows down in round 3 due to all the explosive movements he does. Mariano is going to need to keep it standing, try to work the body & then go to the head. He needs to work on his composure to not allow Puelles to get ahold of him & use his reach to stay on the outside. He should have the speed & striking advantage.
This is a striker vs grappler match and I have to side with Vegas and pick the grappler here. I think he can survive long enough on the feet and if he gets Mariano down I think he will eventually lock up a sub. Mariano could catch him on the feet, but I think it is KO or bust for him.
On DraftKings, I like Puelles because he should be looking to grapple and his ITD line is -155. He should get this fight to the ground asap and if he does he could get a finish in round 1. I think he is in play in all formats here, but it is hard to trust him at $9k. He isn’t a great fighter himself and he could fail at takedowns and get KO’d. I do think I will look to be overweight on Puelles but I would be careful not to go too heavy to where your night is over after the first fight. Mariano, I think is a GPP punt only. If I was just making a few lineups I would just fade him here. If I end up having Puelles as a core play, then I think I will want at least one Mariano hedge lineup.
Winner – Claudio Puelles via 1st round Submission
Sijara Eubanks $9,100 vs Bethe Correia $7,100
Sijara Eubanks
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida BJJ
From: Maryland
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -270
Sijara Eubanks badly needs a win here. After multiple weight issues at 125 lbs, Eubanks returned to 135 lbs in her last fight with a spirited effort. She had a hotly contested fight with Aspen Ladd but came up short via decision. This is her second fight at 135 in the UFC & the second fight with Mark Henry & Ricardo Almeida. Eubanks’ striking looked improved in her last match & I expect her to continue her progression with that gym. She is almost 35 years old & needs to get going if she wants to earn these bigger matchups. She is getting a former title challenger who has fallen on hard times in this matchup. Eubanks is an aggressive, forward pressure fighter on the feet. Both these fighters are used to controlling the center, so something has to give here. Eubanks is the fighter with more volume & more diversity in her striking. She is lighter on her feet with faster hand speed. Eubanks has nice leg kicks & good one-twos. She will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. She likes to attack the body to close the distance into the combos. She has pretty decent head movement in the pocket & will throw long combinations. Eubanks also will throw dangerous head kicks which Correia has been susceptible to in the past. Eubanks is durable & has never been finished. She proved she can give it & take it in a great war in her last match. She did wear down in round 3 of her last match, but Aspen Ladd kept a killer pace. Eubanks has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Sijara Eubanks is a Jiu-Jitsu black & a good grappler. She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. Her single leg from the outside is her most effective takedown. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard heavy elbows. When she takes opponents down, she does a good job of staying on top & winning the round. She has good cardio and can keep a strong pace for all three rounds. She only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat. I do feel if she takes Bethe down she will have a major advantage in top position. Not many fighters have even attempted to take Bethe down. I feel if Eubanks can feint to draw out the wild overhands of Bethe she could duck under into a takedown. Eubanks has one career submission.
Bethe Correia
Age: 36
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Pitbull Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-4-1
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +230
Bethe Correia looks like she may be on her way out. She is 36 years old & has one win via split decision in her last 6 fights. She has been finished in back to back fights & weighed in 5 lbs over in her last fight at 141 lbs. Correia actually had a good performance overall vs Aldana, making it a competitive fight, but she was submitted in the third round. Correia will be looking for her first win in over 3 years here vs Eubanks. Correia is a striker. She isn’t the greatest athlete and is fairly flat footed in her stance. She has a decent jab to the body & head. She likes to throw one-twos and has a nice left hook. She will throw right hooks & overhand rights but doesn’t set them up well. She actually has a pretty nice uppercut she will throw after a hook combination, and it’s probably her most powerful punch. She likes to attack the body with hooks & straight punches. She isn’t a kicker but will throw leg kicks & occasional body kicks. She can throw those kicks without setting them up at times and be countered. She really struggles with movement and needs opponents to sit & trade in the pocket with her to be successful. She will try to throw things such as spinning backfists & superman punches to try to close distance. She doesn’t have good foot or hand speed, and she really struggles with movement & kicks. In her last fight, she really struggled with the straight punches & movement of Aldana. She showed a lot of heart & eventually just started walking down Aldana & throwing hooks & overhands in combination. When she was putting her hands together & making Aldana fight moving backwards she was having success. She was knocked out with a head kick in her match with Holly Holm. She is tough & will sit & trade, but she has been knocked out twice. She has two TKO victories.
Correia isn’t a terrible grappler. She is physically strong for the division & likes to duck under into double underhooks when opponents get aggressive on her. She will control them against the cage, but she doesn’t have a lot of offense from there. Bethe Correia isn’t an offensive wrestler. She has just two takedowns in her UFC career, both in the same fight vs Marion Reneau. Correia has 85% takedown defense & hasn’t been taken down in the UFC since 2014. She is facing a black belt with a heavy wrestling game plan in this fight. It will be interesting to see if Correia will be able to keep it on the feet. Correia needs to avoid being put on her back here. She can sometimes shoot takedowns from way too far out, get reversed, & end up on her back. When she gets taken down, she has poor defense. She doesn’t have good guard retention & opponents have been able to pass to dominant positions like butter. Marion Reneau who isn’t as high level a black belt as Eubanks was able to mount Correia & dominate from top position. In her last match, she shot another poor takedown, and was submitted by Irene Aldana. That was the first submission loss of her career. She has no submissions.
I like Eubanks here. I think she has a big edge if she can get takedowns and I think on the feet it will be close enough to make any takedowns lock up a round. I like her on the feet as well but Correia can keep it close with volume if it plays out of the feet for 15-min. I will take Eubanks to win at least the first 2 rounds though and hopefully, she does look for takedowns.
This is an interesting fight for DK. I am nervous about paying so highly for Eubanks here when she gasses in fights at sea level and now she is going to have to deal with the altitude. She is one of my more confident picks to win but I think Bethe can keep it close if she can keep the fight on the feet. I think Bethe is a decent cash game punt here and she could score 30 in a loss which I would be ok with. Eubanks I am still not sure on. I think she is playable in all formats, but I do want to see how she looks at weigh-ins before I get too much exposure to her. I don’t think we have to pay up for the $9k fighters in every lineup so I am ok with avoiding her if you want. However, I think this will be a fairly high paced fight and she should be looking to grapple which could score highly even in a decision win. I would guess my exposure would be somewhere around 25% on Eubanks this weekend and Bethe would just be a cash punt or a lineup filler in 1-2 max GPPs.
Winner – Sijara Eubanks via Unanimous Decision
Vinicius Moreira $8,300 vs Paul Craig $7,900
Vinicius Moreira
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Five Rounds
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 135
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -120
Vinicius Moreira is still searching for his first UFC victory. He has had a rough go so far getting knocked out in both of his first two UFC fights. Both of these fighters were knocked out on the same card June 29th, so they are returning very quickly. Mamute is an elite Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but there’s question marks whether his overall game is UFC level. His striking is very raw & if he can’t get fights to the mat he is a sitting duck. Vinicius is very stiff on the feet. He does not have good technique on the feet at all. He has very slow, plodding footwork, and throws very low output. He is very flat footed. He doesn’t step-into his punches, and his hand speed is very slow. When he throws punches, he doesn’t bring his hands back to his head fast enough and can get countered with clean shots. He will throw heavy kicks to the legs, body & head. He doesn’t set them up well, but fighters have to respect the power on them. In his last match, he threw a un setup spinning kick & left himself in danger. He doesn’t have good defensive footwork and will just back straight up when opponents throw instead of angling off. His striking game is almost throwing a big shot to fall into a takedown attempt. He will put heavy pressure on opponents in the beginning of rounds and really try to back them up & against the cage. His defense is atrocious, he’s almost easier to hit than he is to miss. He gets insulted when you miss him. He stands very tall, and leaves his chin exposed. He seems to have a good chin and is willing to eat clean shots to get inside but has been knocked out twice now including in his last fight. He has one TKO but standing up I don’t see him as much of a threat at all besides winging a bomb.
Vinicius is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and dangerous when he gets in top position. He does a good job of getting in on a body lock against the cage and will work for single legs & trip takedowns. He will shoot doubles against the cage as well, and then will chain wrestle until he can get it to the ground. He will also shoot & then pull guard. He has nice half guard sweeps, and when he gets on top, he has excellent guard passing skills and will quickly move into dominant positions. He has a very strong mount, and he does a great job of forcing opponents to give their backs, flattening them out and getting rear naked chokes. He can attack with an armbar from back mount also. He also has a good arm triangle setup from mount. He is heavy on top & when he cements positions he is hard to get out from under. Moreira has 8 submissions wins. His cardio is very questionable & I expect this fight to be very sloppy if it hits round 3.
Paul Craig
Age: 31
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 69
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Paul Craig is returning just a little over two months after being flat lined by Alonzo Menifield. He will be taking on another fighter who was knocked out by Menifield recently in Vinicius Moreira. Paul Craig isn’t a great striker. He likes to throw out a jab and try to stay long as he does have a long reach. He likes to throw round and front kicks to the body, and also will throw nice spinning kicks to the body and head. He will throw a one-two, but his hands aren’t great. He likes to counter, and go second, but if fighters pressure and close the distance on him, he struggles. He seems to fall in love with one shot and get super predictable, like throwing a switch high kick over and over and with little power. If you get him moving backwards and throw overhands to counter his jab, he has little answer and will crumble. He doesn’t react well to shots. He has been finished 3 times by strikes. Craig has one TKO victory.
Paul Craig is a dangerous submission artist, with 10 submissions in 11 wins. Craig has good dirty boxing he will attack with hard uppercuts and solid knees. He is open to be hit in close range. Craig has pretty good single and double legs, and he showed improved wresting against Ankalaev & Crute. He doesn’t have incredible top control and fighters are able to stand up from under him, but he will attack with front chokes, and land short punches and elbows. Off his back, he is dangerous if opponents are in his guard, he has a nasty triangle and armbar. He will land hard elbows in his guard and beat fighters up off his back. If fighters pass his guard, they are able to hold and beat him down. He does do a good job of being calm and surviving, and just needs one moment to lock up a submission. His cardio is not good & at elevation it will probably be even worse.
I have no clue how this fight will play out. Both guys are primarily grapplers, but this is going to be Craig’s first UFC fight where he might have the edge on the feet. I could see him wanting to keep this standing and if that is the case he probably wins a sloppy, striking decision. I think Moreira has the edge on the ground, but he isn’t a good wrestler and he doesn’t offer much on the feet. This is a total pass fight for me, but I will take Moreira just because I think this fight does hit the ground and he is more likely to finish with a sub.
This is the hardest fight to know what to do with this week. I won’t be touching it in cash because I am not confident in either guy and I am not sure how this fight plays out. For GPPs, I think both sides are in play and it could score highly if we get grappling. If either of these guys get a 1st round submission at their prices, then they are probably on the optimal lineup. I do want shots on both guys if I am making multiple lineups, but my preferred guy is Moreira. I won’t be going all in on this fight, but I think it could be in 50% of my total lineups and I would probably lean 30% Moreira and 20% Craig, if that is the case. If you have a stronger lean on who wins this fight, then I would go a bit higher on that guy. If this fight stays standing, then I don’t see either guy scoring well and that is why I wouldn’t go too heavy on it.
Winner – Vinicius Moreira via 2nd round Submission
Sergio Pettis $9,300 vs Tyson Nam $6,900
Sergio Pettis
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 8-5
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -350
Sergio Pettis is looking to snap his two-fight losing streak. He is making the return down to flyweight after a loss at BW vs Rob Font. Pettis has sputtered since getting a number one contenders fight vs Henry Cejudo & is in a must win fight here. He is taking on a UFC newcomer in Tyson Nam. Pettis has experience fighting in Mexico. He actually headlined a card vs Brandon Moreno & had a nice five round decision win. He is an excellent striker, he throws tight, straight punches, with little to no telegraph that are deadly accurate. He also has very formidable kicks in his arsenal as well. He has nice leg kicks, round kicks & front kicks to the body. He also throws hook kicks to the face. Pettis has one of the best jabs in the UFC, he does a great job of jabbing in the pocket and stepping back, making opponents miss and countering with a short shot they don’t see coming. He has a great one-two off the jab, and very nice pull counters with his right hand. He will throw an accurate check left hook, and he really hurt Joseph Benavidez with it. He does a fantastic job of controlling the center of the cage by switching stances. He will walk opponents down and if they try to blitz him, angle off, switch stances, and jab from the opposite stance. He has very good defense, and always keeps opponents at the end of his punches, but the few times he’s been clipped, he’s shown maybe he doesn’t have the best chin. He has been finished twice by finish in the UFC early in his career. In his last fight vs Rob Font, he really struggled with the jab & forward pressure of Font. That is something that Nam is going to bring as well. He doesn’t have big power, and just has 3 KO/TKO’s & none in the UFC.
Sergio Pettis is not the best grappler. Pettis does have good distance control & circles off the cage pretty well. His takedown defense isn’t the greatest. Fighters can time double legs on him & he isn’t the strongest in the clinch. He got taken down by a couple body locks against Rob Font. Rob Font was able to back Pettis up, and use his punching combinations to setup takedowns. Off his back, Pettis isn’t bad, but can be controlled against heavy top pressure fighters. He will use his guard to attack armbars, triangles & leg locks, but uses them more to scramble, than submit. Sergio Pettis did get a body lock takedown against Rob Font late in round two but was swept with a kimura. Pettis has just 3 career submissions. Pettis has never earned a finish in the UFC.
Tyson Nam
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: N/A
Gym: Hawaii Elite
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +290
Tyson Nam is a knockout artist who I am excited to see compete in the UFC. Tyson Nam has already had a ton of experience. He had a bad, rough patch in his career from 2012-2014 where he lost 4 in a row but has won 6 of his last 7 fights. Nam does have experience against high level competition like Eduardo Dantas, Ali Bagautinov, & Marlon Moraes. He holds knockout victories over Bagautinov & Dantas. Tyson Nam is a huge 135er & going to be significantly bigger. Nam is taking this fight on short notice, but he was already training for a fight around the same time. Nam should be in shape & ready to go. Nam has fought in many 5 round fights & usually picks up as the fight goes on. Nam has a nice jab, and good one-two. He will double jab himself into range for his overhand right & right hooks. He has devastating power & is one of the hardest hitters in the entire division. Nam is a forward pressure fighter who likes to walk people down, block & return. His game is to back fighters up towards the cage, touch them, get them to open up & then knock them out. He has good head & body movement & slips, and rips well. He will come over the top with dangerous hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. 125ers do not want to bang in the pocket with Tyson Nam. He will land nice jabs left hooks & diligently attack the body. He will use head kicks to keep opponents from circling off the cage. In space, Nam isn’t the fastest FLW. He can be a little flat footed & allow opponents to dance around him.
Tyson Nam has very strong takedown defense. He will dig underhooks & disengage. Nam is very strong for 125 lbs & athletic. It’s hard to get in on his hips. Nam has nice body lock takedowns. He manhandles opponents in the clinch. In this fight, I could see him maybe implementing some wrestling to exploit that weak point of Pettis’ game. Nam likes to stand up in opponent’s guards, and rain down big shots. He has fight ending power when he lands. If he can use his forward pressure style, body shots & takedowns, he could slow the movement of Pettis & start to sit down on bigger shots when he becomes more stationary.
I think Nam is live here as one of the bigger dogs on the card. I can’t pick him outright, I just think he has some value in his line. He has big power and he can also win this fight on volume. Pettis is the better overall fighter, but he is too inactive at times and as a 3/1 favorite I wouldn’t want to risk that on a fight that could be close. I do think Pettis will probably get his hand raised but this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Nam. It is Nam or pass for me this week and I will have a full fade on Pettis at $9.3k. Pettis has never had a DK score that would even 10x that price, so he is an easy fade and even with 150 lineups I would probably have no more than ~5 shots on him. I think Nam will make my player pool because he does have KO power and he is so cheap. I also don’t think he gets finished so he has a decent floor and could be a cash punt. Dog or pass all around though for me and the best move is probably to just pass.
Winner – Sergio Pettis via Unanimous Decision
Angela Hill $8,500 vs Ariane Carnelossi $7,700
Angela Hill
Age: 33
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA/Entram Gym
From: New York
UFC Record: 4-7
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Angela Hill is making yet another quick turnaround in her quest to be the female Donald Cerrone. This will be Hill’s fourth fight of 2019. She lost a close match in her last fight to a very good fighter in Yan Xiaonan. Hill has lost 3 of 4 fights, and now against a newcomer this is a must win fight. Angela Hill is a very quick and nimble striker. She has good movement on the outside, using false start, stutter step movements to throw off her blitzes and mixes it in with a lot of kicks and teips to the body and high kicks as well. She has great leg kicks off her blitzes and usually that is the shot she finishes with after she throws her right hand. She has a very nice jab & good right hook. She will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. She will attack the body with punches & kicks. She is great at mixing it up & targeting all areas. She will throw a left hook to leg kick combination. She will fake the left hook & throw a leg kick. She has a great overhand right and solid timing catching opponents coming in with it. She is good at moving her head in the pocket and rolling with shots to lessen the impact. She will slip & return with nice punching combinations. She is very good at seeing kicks coming & parrying them. She has nice head kicks & hard round kicks to the body. She is very good early, she is extremely fast and keeps a heavy volume of leg kicks and blitz attacks. Her in and out movement is very good. She is always pressing the fight & going forward. She throws a ton of volume & fights at a very fast pace. She can get caught against cage and unloaded on but has a solid chin and does a good job of tying up and reversing her position off the cage. She has some variety in her shots throwing a nice superman punch and step-in elbows. In this fight, she needs to pressure forward, feint & use leg kicks. She is going to be the fastest girl Carnelossi has ever fought, and I think she can stay in her face & counter better than any opponent she’s ever faced. She does lean back at times & can angle off with her hands low. She has to be careful with that here, because I feel Carnelossi could land hooks or overhands on the exits. She has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes. She is very durable.
Angela Hill is improving as a grappler and much better than earlier in her UFC career. That didn’t show in her last match. She was quickly submitted in her last match and will be looking to fight the wrongs here. She has good technique in the clinch. She has good head positioning, will dig an underhook & land nice knees to the body. She will also throw uppercuts & overhand rights. She will exit the clinch with hard elbows. I expect this fight to take place on the feet & I don’t see Carnelossi going for takedowns. If Carnelossi does go for takedowns, I think Hill has the takedown defense to defend or get back to her feet. Hill has never earned a submission in her career. She has been submitted 2 times.
Ariane Carnelossi
Age: 26
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: N/A
Gym: Inside Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: +125
Ariane Carnelossi is a 12-1 Brazilian fighter taking this match on close notice. She has won 12 consecutive matches since losing her MMA debut. It was a loss to Amanda Ribas who is also in the UFC. This will be Carnelossi’s first fight out of Brazil. She has not fought very many high-level fighters but is coming off a victory over an 8-1 opponent. Carnelossi is very aggressive. She is jacked & a very physical fighter for the division. Her striking is not very technical. She is just a seek & destroy fighter. She is constantly coming forward & willing to trade in the pocket. Carnelossi will throw some solid leg & body kicks. She throws hard & has power in both her hands & kicks. She will throw nice one-twos which are actually powerful. When she lands her right hand clean it definitely rocks opponents. She will close the distance with sloppy hooks & overhands. She throws a lot of shots wide & fighters who move & counter can piece her up. She does throw a lot of arm punches & stands flat footed just winging shots at times. She is still green a little bit. When she starts to sit down on more shots & bring her feet with her, she will be much more effective. When she can back opponents to the fence, she will unload with long punching combinations to the body and head. Carnelossi doesn’t get tired & is very durable. She will constantly walk fighters down & is a little terminator. She kind of reminds me of a worse version of Jessica Andrade on the feet. I have seen her losing fights but continuing to come forward, wearing on opponents & getting late KO/TKO’s. Carnelossi has 8 career knockouts & has never been finished by strikes.
Ariane Carnelossi is not a very active wrestler. Carnelossi will use wild blitz combinations to back opponents up & clinch up with them against the cage. She has good control there & is very strong. She will dig double underhooks & control there, while looking to chain wrestle. I have seen her grab a high crotch single from that position, lift & then dump her opponents explosively. Her wrestling doesn’t look very good though, and she isn’t active in the clinch with strikes. She is active when she can land a combination & back opponents up. She will close the distance, grab the Muay Thai plum & throw nasty knees to the body & head. When she gets fighters down, she doesn’t have great top control, and will just stand up when opponents threaten with their guard. I feel she uses the clinch more to rest, & I haven’t seen her attempt many takedowns. Carnelossi isn’t really a submission threat. She has one submissions & was submitted in her lone loss.
I think I like Carnelossi here for the slight upset. She has real power and she will be throwing high volume while she is fresh. She has enough power to get a knockout here, but I think she at least wins round 1 and then hopefully 2 as well. She will be the fighter pushing forward and Hill will be looking to hit and move. I think Carnelossi does more overall damage though and when she can pin Hill against the fence, she is going to tee off on her. I think Hill picks it up late if she survives but I don’t see her finishing and I think Carnelossi gets a 29-28 decision here.
I think both sides of this fight are in play for DK and they could both be under owned. I like the volume from Hill and even in a decision win she can pay off her price. My preferred play is going to be Carnelossi though and I think she does get more than 10x if she wins here. I think she has a shot at the KO too and if she can get that it will likely come early and that would put her on the nuts lineup. I think she is in play in all formats because of her price and I think she gets the win here as an underdog. I don’t like too many dogs on this card, so she will probably be one of my favorites. I wouldn’t go too heavy on her, but I will be overweight on her to the field and I might end up going even 40% or so. I don’t see me having too much Hill, but she might make my player pool if I get up to 20 or more lineups.
Winner – Ariane Carnelossi via Split Decision
Kyle Nelson $8,600 vs Polo Reyes $7,600
Kyle Nelson
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: House of Champions
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 357
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Kyle Nelson is still searching for his first UFC win after an 0-2 start to his career. Nelson looks to be well-rounded. Nelson has a solid jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw nice one-twos. He has a good counter left hook. He has very nice step-in knees to the body. He has nice leg kicks, along with front & round kicks to the body. His front kick to the body is pretty nasty & he hurt Diego Ferreira with it. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. He comes out fast & is dangerous in round one. He has good power & forces a lot of opponents to shoot bad takedowns due to his pressure. He was putting it to Diego Ferreira a bit before gassing out. Nelson likes to use a high guard, so he is hittable to the body. He does seem to slow way down in round 3. He has 3 KO/TKO’s all in round one. 6 of his 8 finishes are in round one. He was TKO’d for the first time in his last match.
Nelson is a solid grappler. He doesn’t go for takedowns very often or the clinch. He will shoot reactive double legs on occasion. In his last fight, he did land a nice reactive double leg on Matt Sayles. He was able to use the single leg to circle to the back & take him down against the cage. I feel in this fight he has to have noticed the poor takedown defense of Reyes & will try to exploit that. If he gets top position I could see him having a lot of success. He has good takedown defense, will reverse, and take top position. He does let fighters get in on his legs against the cage. I feel higher level wrestlers will be able to take him down. He has heavy elbows in top position & good control. He will cut opponents open with big elbows. He will progress to mount and likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He was able to take the back & attack with a tight rear naked choke that almost finished Matt Sayles. If he gets Marco Polo Reyes in that situation, I don’t see him getting out of it. He also had a nice guillotine he attempted. Nelson showed the ability to attack the legs to create scrambles off his back. He did allow Matt Sayles to posture up & land some big ground & pound. The fighters he has beaten on the mat are not very high level. He was finished with G&P against Diego Ferreira & taken down fairly easily. Nelson has 4 submissions & has never been submitted.
Marco Polo Reyes
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145 (debut)
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 219
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -105
Marco Polo Reyes has been struggling as of late. He has been knocked out in three of his last four fights. At 34 years old & with those performances, he may be fading. He is making the drop to 145 lbs for the first time in his career for this fight. He needs a win here to stay in the UFC. Polo Reyes is a very one-dimensional fighter. He is purely a boxer brawler. Reyes is a forward pressure fighter. He wants to inch his way into range, cut his opponents, back them towards the cage & get in a fire fight. He has a nice jab & left hook. He will throw one-twos, jabs, and overhand rights. He will close the distance with straight punching combos & likes to finish blitz attacks with head kicks. He will attack the body with straight-rights, lefts, and right hooks. In the pocket, he is dangerous if fighters just plant their feet & trade. He has brutal power in his right hand & can close the show. He struggles mightily with movement. He will try to double jab into range & blitz in, but he’s just not that fast. Fighters with good movement & solid kicks can pick him apart all night. He is heavy on his lead leg & susceptible to leg kicks. He will also take a shot to give a shot & isn’t the most defensively sound. If opponents stand & trade, he will make them pay & that’s mainly his game. He has won 7 fights via KO/TKO. He has been finished 4 times by strikes & his chin is questionable.
Reyes is not a good grappler. His takedown defense is not good. He allows fighters in deep on his legs especially with double legs. He will try to stuff the head, but most of the time he ends up on his back. He has 37% takedown defense. He can be taken down with body locks easily also. Really, any takedown in space he struggles to defend. He is better at defending takedowns when he’s against the cage. He can use the cage to change position & create scrambles. He was able to defend a takedown against Jason Novelli and use the cage & take top position. His top game is not dangerous. He isn’t a passer & will just try to posture up and land punches from mount. He doesn’t have great submission defense & fighters are able to use their guards to tie him up negating much damage. When he is on his back, his defense is not good. He was quickly finished with ground & pound in his last match. He doesn’t have a very good guard, and fighters can pass it easily. Novelli was able to take his back in the dying seconds of their fight. He has been submitted two times & has one career submission. I don’t think he is much of a threat to submit anybody unless he really hurts them with punches first.
On the feet, I like Polo Reyes here. I think he will have way more volume and probably gets a knockout at some point if he is the one that wins. Nelson is going to be the better ground fighter here though and Polo Reyes doesn’t have a lot to offer there. If Nelson wins I think it will be by submission. Either way, I don’t see this one going all 3-rounds. I am not confident picking either side here, but I will take Reyes because I think he could get back to his feet and tire out Nelson and finish him in the 2nd or 3rd round.
I like both sides of this fight for GPPs, but my preferred play is Polo Reyes. I have seen a lot of people on Nelson this week and maybe that lowers Reyes’ ownership a bit here. I do think he has one of the higher ceilings as an underdog, but I also don’t trust him enough to go too heavy on him. I think Nelson is in play for an early finish here though and at his price that is probably enough to make the winning lineup. I don’t love the $9k’s this week, so I think we can hover in the midrange and take shots on both of these guys for GPPs. For cash, this is a total pass fight for me. I do want this in half or more of my GPPs though, but more so the Reyes side.
Winner – Polo Reyes via 2nd round (T)KO
Jose Quinonez $8,700 vs Carlos Huachin $7,500
Jose Quinonez
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Alliance MMA/Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Jose Teco Quinonez will be looking to bounce back after having his four fight UFC win streak snapped. He was submitted by Nathaniel Wood in the second round. Quinonez is getting a home game fighting in Mexico City. He has put in a great camp at Entram Gym with teammate Jeremy Stephens. Quinonez definitely has the experience edge in this matchup. This will be his 7th UFC fight. Quinonez’s three losses have all come against high quality opposition in Davi Ramos, Alejandro Perez & Nathaniel Wood. His loss to Perez was due to a foul also. He clearly won two rounds of the fight but was docked two points for an illegal headbutt. Quinonez is a good striker. He Is light on his feet with good in & out movement. Quinonez has nice leg kicks, and long punches. He has a risk averse style on the feet of touching, moving & staying long before he times an overhand. He feints well. He has a nice jab, and a good pull counter straight & right hook. He will pull fighters into very nice front knees to the body also. Quinonez will throw occasional head kicks. He likes to throw switch kicks to the head. He throws nice front kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks to the body. Quinonez will pick up the pace & pressure as the fight goes on. He is still smart in how he attacks, but he will walk opponents down, switch stances & force them to back pedal. Quinonez can sometimes get caught as he tries to blitz in. He can overextend on his punches & leave himself exposed to counters. Quinonez also can lean back without moving his feet. He will raise his chin high & expose himself. He has been dropped in multiple fights but has great cardio & recovers very quickly. He isn’t the easiest guy to hit, but his defense does need a little work. Training with Jeremy Stephens, I feel is a good look for a power puncher like Huachin. Quinonez has been finished just once by KO/TKO vs a 155er in Davi Ramos. He isn’t a big knockout threat & definitely has a point fighting style. Quinonez has two career TKO’s.
Jose Quinonez is a very proficient grappler. He is active seeking takedowns & I see him doing that here. Quinonez will bounce around on the outside until his opponents close the distance for him, or he safely gets in. He has nice timing on single & double legs, and very good trips. He will use the shots on the legs to come up into double underhooks, where he is very proficient with body lock & trip takedowns. He is long & uses his length well to get fighters to the ground. He controls well against the cage & will land nice knees to the body. He catches kicks & uses that to get takedowns also. On top, he is heavy & transitions well. He has good back takes & controls it well a body triangle. He isn’t the most active with submissions & is more about control. His cardio & ability to continue to wrestle & push the pace pays dividends later in fights. He sometimes can struggle to hold fighters down, but he won’t slow down. Quinonez’ takedown defense looks a little questionable. He was taken down by Teruto Ishihara & then dominated on the mat vs Nathaniel Wood. Quinonez was able to takedown Nathaniel Wood early with a body lock but got swept. When Quinonez got taken down, he gave his back trying to stand up & was submitted shortly after. I don’t expect him to have to worry about many takedowns in this matchup. Quinonez has one submission & was submitted for the first time in his career in his last fight.
Carlos Huachin
Age: 23
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Pitbull Martial Arts Center
From: Peru
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 200
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Carlos Huachin had a tough task for his UFC debut. He had to take on a rising contender in Raoni Barcelos but fared well. He had success striking with Raoni but showed deficiencies on the mat being finished in round two with G&P. Huachin is extremely aggressive early on and has fast hand speed. Huachin has nice feints & fast hand speed. He has a nice jab, overhand right or jab, right hook. His counter overhand right is powerful. He will explode into big uppercuts. He can get countered when he winds up the lead uppercut. I have seen him wobbled because of that multiple times. Huachin is a wild man in regional scene fights. He just goes in there, plants his feet & goes to war. He will come forward with heavy combinations. He will throw hook & uppercut combos. He doesn’t have great defense in the pocket & can run in on straight lines. I have seen him countered hard, rocked and dropped. He doesn’t throw kicks & is primarily a boxer. He will mix it up at times & attack the body with punches. Huachin showed more composure in his UFC debut. He took the counter approach early & wasn’t nearly as wild or aggressive. He eventually got more confidence & started putting combinations together. He had initial success, but eventually was dropped & finished on the ground. Huachin is definitely dangerous on the feet with power. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his 10 wins. Huachin was finished for the first time in his career by ground & pound in his last fight.
Carlos Huachin doesn’t look like a great wrestler. I have seen fighters time his wild hooks with double legs. I have seen him use double underhooks to defend doubles, and then jump on guillotines. I don’t like seeing fighters who use flying guillotines, because more often than not they end up on their backs. Off his back he is “scramble-ly”, and will try to move on bottom, but isn’t extremely technical. He allows opponents to pass rather easily, because he is aggressive attacking legs or going for low percentage submissions. I have seen a fight vs Bruno Pereira where he was taken down & looked to kind of Russian tap in a leg lock, which made his opponent break the hold. The ref didn’t stop it & Huachin was able to take top position & frustrated Pereira. He took the back & got a rear naked choke later in that same fight. In that fight though, Pereira kept dropping down for leg locks instead of staying heavy in top position. It gave Huachin the ability to scramble & eventually take the back & get the submission, but he was taken down multiple times. Huachin was dropped by Raoni Barcelos & then dominated on the ground. He could not get-up off his back. Huachin got his guard passed multiple times, failed to control posture, got beat up & eventually finished. He allowed Barcelos to take mount multiple times & eventually take the back. Huachin was tough & scrambled out of a few chokes & positions, but eventually was pounded out with elbows. Huachin has never been submitted & has two career submissions.
I see Quinonez being the better fighter everywhere here except maybe power. I think he will be the more active striker and landing shots at range and mixing in takedowns. I think Huachin is more likely to get a knockout, but if that doesn’t happen I think Quinonez cruises to a decision win. I think a lot of these fights go the distance this weekend and I am going to side with the fighter who has the crowd cheering for them more often than not in close fights.
Fight Goes To Decision is -155 here and that is keeping me from clicking this fight in a lot of my lineups. I don’t see either one of these guys scoring highly without a finish and I do agree with Vegas that it goes all 3. My preferred play is going to be Quinonez because I think he is the better, overall fighter and I do think he lands a couple takedowns as well. I don’t see him scoring 100+ here but I do think he gets around 10x. I think both sides are in play for GPPs, but we don’t have to make it a point to target either guy IMO.
Winner – Jose Quinonez via Unanimous Decision
Martin Bravo $8,100 vs Steven Peterson $8,100
Martin Bravo
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 272
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -110
Martin Bravo is making a return after a long layoff. He is still searching for his first victory in almost 3 years. He hasn’t fought since his split decision loss to Alex Caceres which was in July 2018. Martin Bravo is a forward pressure fighter. He has nice, inside low kicks. He has a decent jab and uses his front hand to gauge distance. He will throw a lot of overhand rights. Bravo will try to flurry with punch combinations when he backs fighters near the cage. He was able to use a nasty body shot against the cage to finish Claudio Puelles. Bravo’s striking is really not very good. He basically just walks opponents down, tries to use inside leg kicks, body & head kicks to clinch up with them against the fence. Bravo is tough & will return with a punch when he gets hit, but his defense is porous. He also doesn’t look to have very much pop on his punches. Bravo tends to walk in on straight lines. Alex Caceres was able to drop him with a big straight in the second round. Bravo has great cardio & recovers quickly but takes a lot of damage. Bravo was knocked out in less than 30 seconds vs Humberto Bandenay with a head kick. If Bravo’s durability goes, that will be a massive problem for him. His style is to basically use forward pressure, volume & his durability to grind out victories. Bravo has 4 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes just once.
Martin Bravo showed off some wrestling chops in his last fight. He uses his forward pressure to back opponents up against the cage & clinch up with them. He catches kicks well & uses that for takedowns. Bravo will use single legs to come up into underhooks & look for trips. Bravo did hold down Alex Caceres for a minute or so near the end of round one but didn’t do much damage at all. He didn’t have much success holding Caceres down after that point. I think Bravo’s wrestling isn’t the best & I feel that Peterson may be the better grappler. Bravo does have 5 submissions & has never been submitted. I have not seen much of him off his back, or his takedown defense.
Steven Peterson
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 196
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -110
Steven Peterson is making a quick turnaround after his last fight. Ocho also suffered a decision loss to Alex Caceres in his last fight. Peterson has lost back to back fights & needs to win here. Peterson is a dog & all about pressure. He will throw leg kicks. He throws nice jabs. He likes to throw one-twos. He will throw overhand rights to close the distance. He will throw a right hook to a straight-left hand combination. When he gets inside, he will attack with hooks & uppercuts. He will throw multiple overhand rights in a row when opponents are near the cage. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He will throw jumping front kicks, and superman punches. He doesn’t move his head & will just walk forward on straight lines. He has a fantastic chin and will walk through shots with no issue. He has no problem taking damage to give his own & welcomes a brawl. The problem is he has been a punching bag in his UFC fights. He is slow & really struggles to get inside. He will stand in the pocket & wing shots. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s & has only been finished once by strikes.
Peterson is a grinder and a solid grappler. He is good at controlling opponents against the cage & stays active there. He will throw nice knees & elbows. He has solid body lock takedowns. He has decent single legs. He jumps on guillotine. When he takes top position, he is very heavy. He will methodically pass to better positions. In half guard, he will throw short elbows & attack with arm triangles. He will get the crucifix position if he moves to side control. He will throw hard elbows to the head & knees to the body from side control. He has solid back takes & good control. He will soften opponents up with nice elbows before trying to lock in the RNC. If one person is the more dangerous submission fighter I would definitely say its Peterson. Peterson, I feel has the better wrestling also. Peterson was able to do more with position & control better against their similar opponent Alex Caceres. Peterson has 8 submissions & never been submitted.
This is a close fight, but I have to lean with the guy from Mexico. Bravo is the better overall fighter here IMO and I think he will probably land at a higher rate. This should be a high paced fight from both sides though and Peterson could be the guy pressing forward. Either guy could land takedowns here, but I expect this fight to mainly play out on the feet and with Bravo having the crowd behind him, I have to think even in a close fight the judges lean his way.
This is another fight that is supposed to go the distance, but I am more interested in this one. I think this will be a higher paced fight and I think the winner probably scores over 10x here. Since they are the same price, I might even go 50/50 on them and just make my favorite 1-3 lineups and just duplicate them to have the other guy as well. My preferred play is Bravo though and if I was only making 1 lineup, it would be him that I would be looking at. This isn’t a must target fight at all, but it is one I will be looking at both sides and I could see it making ~30% of my lineups. I don’t hate it for cash but my lean there would be Bravo as well. If you are picking Peterson, then I think he would be fine as well for cash. I like the floor from both guys, but we will need to hit on our other spots if we take a loss here even if it is a 40-point loss.
Winner – Martin Bravo via Split Decision
Irene Aldana $9,400 vs Vanessa Melo $6,800
Irene Aldana
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Lobo Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -550
Irene Aldana had her 3-fight winning streak snapped in her last match. She had the opportunity to jump into the top 5 of the division but fell short vs former title challenger Raquel Pennington. Aldana is making a quick turnaround & fighting in her home country. She was supposed to fight Marion Reneau who is a solid name but will now be taking on UFC newcomer Vanessa Melo. Aldana is a slick boxer who strikes at range and controls distance very well. She has great footwork & lateral movement. She has a nasty jab, and heavy leg kicks. She has a nice one-two, and her straight-right hand is very fast and accurate. She will throw nice counter left hooks. She will throw a jab, straight, right uppercut combination. She will also throw an uppercut to straight-right hand combo. She is very fluid with her combinations, has good power and hand speed. Aldana doesn’t move her head when she throws much & can get hit with jabs & hooks entering range. She isn’t great fighting backwards, she will do a lot of leaning back & covering up. When Rocky went forward & threw combinations she had a lot of success. She is heavy on her lead leg & can be leg kicked. She also can be hit to the body because she uses a high guard. She is the significantly faster fighter with her foot speed in this matchup & she needs to try to fight long. She isn’t much of a kicker, but she has good leg kicks, and will occasionally land a body kick. She was throwing more front kicks to the body in her last match, and she should throw those here. She is good at staying in the pocket & countering with combinations. Aldana doesn’t hit as hard moving backwards, and fighters are willing to eat her shots to give one. She has 5 career KO/TKO’s. She has been TKO’d twice. I think she is a bit on the chinny side, but she’s very tough.
Aldana is very physically strong, and good in the clinch with knees and elbows. She won’t go for takedowns very often. She is just 2-4 on takedowns in her UFC career. She has solid takedown defense and does a great job of digging double underhooks and reversing the takedown and taking top position. She has strong elbows on top and will attack with submissions as well. She likes to take the back & has solid rear naked chokes. She sprawled on a bad takedown attempt of Bethe Correia, took the back & locked in an armbar. She is good in the scrambles and usually lands on top. She can be controlled against the cage & taken down by fighters who can setup takedowns with strikes. She has great get-ups though & overall is a good grappler. She was able to deny & reverse position on almost all the takedown attempts of Pennington in her last match. When she was taken down, she aggressively looked for leg locks. She has good cardio and will push for all three rounds. She is a finisher and has finished 7 of her 8 wins. She has three submissions all by rear naked choke. Aldana is going to be the faster fighter who throws more volume. She should look to stay at kicking range, use front kicks and leg kicks to setup her punching combinations. Get in & get out. If she keeps this a range striking fight, she should be the fighter who is more technical hits harder & throws more volume.
Vanessa Melo
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Babuino Gold Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +425
Vanessa Melo will be making her UFC debut on short notice in enemy territory. Melo has won 5 consecutive fights & is coming off a win against Jan Finney. Melo has also defeated Molly McCann. I really am not extremely impressed with Melo. Her striking is very basic. Her footwork is just not very good. She is flat footed & slowly tries to inch her way into boxing range. She tends to do a lot of waiting right in front of opponents, so she can counter. Melo will throw some inside leg kicks but is almost exclusively a puncher. Melo has a decent jab & lead left hook. She will slip a shot & come over the top with a right overhand or hook. She will skip & return with the jab or left hook. She throws a lot of arm punches lacking power. When fighters pressure Melo, she tends to back up in straight lines. She gives up the center pretty easily. She doesn’t move her head & gets hit entering range. She also just isn’t the fastest or best athlete. She does come in good shape. She tends to start slow but walks opponents down in the latter half of the fight. Melo does not have big power with 0 KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.
Vanessa Melo isn’t a super active grappler & won’t look for takedowns or the clinch much. I have seen her shoot takedowns when she can back opponents to the cage & get double legs. Her takedown defense doesn’t look great. Off her back, she does look hard to hold down. I really haven’t seen much of her off her back. Melo does have two career submissions. She has never been submitted. For Melo, she needs to walk Aldana down, make the cage small & counter when Aldana tries to strike. She needs to try to get her tired & maybe go for doubles against the cage.
Melo is making her UFC debut on short notice here. She is the biggest underdog on the card though and for good reason. I think Aldana is going to be the better fighter everywhere here and I think she will look to keep this fight standing and she probably pieces Melo up all 3-rounds. She can make fights closer than they should be, but I like her a lot here and she is a fine parlay piece.
This is Aldana or pass for me. I do like Aldana for cash if I can reach her because she is my most confident pick on the card and she is the highest favorite. I don’t think we have to have her in any format though. I will also be looking to get her into my GPP player pool and she is probably my top play between her, Pettis, and Eubanks. We just don’t have to go that high if we don’t want to this week. I think she does score well in a win though and I will get exposure to her. Full fade on Melo for me though.
Winner – Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision
Askar Askarov $8,800 vs Brandon Moreno $7,400
Askar Askarov
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Berkut FC
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -165
Askar Askarov is an undefeated Russian prospect at 10-0. This will be his UFC debut & his first fight in North America. Askarov has faced some tough competition & looks ready for the UFC stage. This is his first fight in over a year. Askarov is a fluid striker. He likes to play the outside game to start & use a lot of kicks. He has excellent feints & is very fast. He throws nasty leg kicks, both inside & outside. He has a stiff, stabbing jab. Askarov will throw nice left hooks. He has a nasty one-two. He has a nice overhand right. He has good head movement and will slip & return with straights & hooks. In the pocket, he is very good at slipping shots, ducking & rolling while returning with clean counters. He has power in his hands when he can walk fighters into his counters. Once he gets his reads & opponents timing, he will start to walk them down. He is very methodical, he doesn’t throw a ton, but when he does he’s accurate & powerful. He is very good at landing a punch while grabbing a leg at the same time & getting the takedown. He does hold his hands a bit low & I have seen fighters be very aggressive with him early & have some success with blitzes. Overall, he has good defense & movement though. He has good head & body movement and is superb at catching kicks. Askar is undefeated at 10-0 & a very confident fighter. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Askar Askarov is a dynamic submission grappler. He will pull off submissions in fights most fighters don’t even know how to attempt such as twisters. He is a very strong wrestler to boot. Askarov is very physically strong for the division, and muscles fighters around in the clinch. He is excellent at getting the tight waist, circling to the back & landing suplexes. He will punch his way into this position excellently & blends striking to grappling very well. He is also excellent at catching kicks & getting takedowns, along with foot sweeps. On top, he is very heavy & loves to take the back. He has strong control from there & sticks the submissions very well. He has very good defensive wrestling, and even if he does get taken down, he’s very good off his back. He has a dangerous guard, throwing up submissions & looking for sweeps. He is also very hard to hold down. He has excellent front chokes he will attack with when opponents shoot in from too far out. He will put opponents to sleep with darces, anacondas, & guillotines. Whenever I have seen him taken down, he will immediately look for the double wrist lock from inside his guard. He has great grip strength and can not only manipulate posture but sweep or finish with it. Askar has 7 submissions in his career. He has finished all 10 of his pro wins.
Brandon Moreno
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Ludwig Martial Arts
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Brandon Moreno is returning to the UFC, as they try to rebuild the FLW division. Moreno was cut but was busy in the meantime winning a title in LFA. He will be taking on a debuting UFC fighter from Russia in Askar Askarov. He is getting the opportunity to return in his home country of Mexico. Moreno has a long reach for the division. He likes to bounce around on the outside & leap into punching combinations & kicks. He has a pretty good jab. He uses a lot of misdirection, playing and moving with his arms so opponents don’t know what he’s about to do. He has solid fakes & feints. He will throw occasional leg kicks. Moreno will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will throw an uppercut, straight-right hand combination as well. In his last match, he hurt his opponent with a big uppercut & then finished him with G&P. He will throw nice head kicks, and he dropped Dustin Ortiz with one. Moreno is a Mexican warrior, and if you want to stand in the pocket & trade he is game for that. He will sit down on big hooks, uppercuts & try to take opponents out. Moreno is not very active and doesn’t have the greatest power to keep people off him. When he’s pressured, he can back up in straight lines. He throws wide shots & can be countered. I don’t think he can win fights consistently at the UFC Level without being able to take his opponents down. He is one of the better finishers in the division, but technical strikers have shown the ability to pick him apart. This fight I don’t see him being able to compete standing up, and he needs to push the takedown. Moreno has just two KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped & submitted fighters. He has a strong chin & has never been finished by strikes.
Brandon Moreno is a crafty Jiu-Jitsu player. His wrestling is not very good, but he sometimes will time good double legs or get clinch takedowns. He will try to pull guard or lure opponents to get on top of him if he can’t get them down. In top position, he passes quickly & looks to take the back. He has good ground & pound to create passing situations. When he takes the back he has good control, and rear naked chokes. He recently has competed in combat Jiu-Jitsu & fared well. He went 2-1 with two finishes. Moreno’s takedown defense is not very good. He will try to use front chokes to counter takedowns. He locked into a guillotine against Louis Smolka when Smolka was in on a single leg. He has a nice darce choke. He is good in scrambles. He jumps on submissions and will sweep off his back well. He will attack with leg locks, and triangles. Moreno has 10 submissions & has been submitted just one time. For Brandon Moreno, he is going to need to keep heavy pressure in this fight, get in Askarov’s face & make him skirt the cage. He needs to look for takedowns & put Askarov on his back.
This is going to be a good one. Askarov is an undefeated prospect making his debut and he looks like the real deal. Moreno is making his return to the UFC here and he is a solid fighter himself and we could see a lot of fun ground scrambles. I think Askarov is going to be the much better wrestler of the two though and I see him being the guy in more dominant positions and I think he is much more likely to get a finish. I like what I have seen from Askarov though, so I am going to take him to win all 3-rounds here.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card and one I will be getting exposure to on both sides. Askarov could end up being a core play for me this week and I do like him in all lineups. I think he could get an early sub here and could score more than the $9k fighters. I will probably have 40% or even more on Askarov this week and for that reason, I want to hedge a bit with Moreno as well. He has finishing ability for sure and he will have the crowd behind him here. I will probably look to go around 15% or so on him and this will be in half or more of my lineups. If this fight stays standing for 15-minutes, then that could kill the potential of the $25k so I want a good amount of lineups without it in case that happens.
Winner – Askar Askarov via Unanimous Decision
Alexa Grasso $8,400 vs Carla Esparza $7,800
Alexa Grasso
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 66”
Gym: Lobo Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Alexa Grasso will be looking to build off the best performance of her career in her last match. She was able to dominate Karolina Kowalkiewicz on PPV in a great fight. She is getting the opportunity to take out a former UFC champion in Carla Esparza in her home country. Grasso is a good striker. She is fairly fast & likes to go forward and walk opponents down. She will throw inside, outside leg kicks. She has an alright jab, and good straight-right hand. She has a nice one-two. She will throw a nice straight-left hand lead, and straight-left, overhand right, right hook combination. She is at her best when she can back opponents up against the cage & unload with combinations. She has very fast hand speed & will unload with left & right straights & hooks mixed in with uppercuts. Her straight-right hand has power, and that’s the shot she usually hurts opponents with. She will mix nice front & round kicks to the body in between the combinations. She has a solid round kick to the head. When she does let go like that, she tends to forget about defense & leave her chin right up in the air. While Grasso has solid foot speed, when she strikes she isn’t in & out, she is flat footed & there to be countered. Fighters like Felice Herrig & Randa Markos were able to counter her single shots with combinations, and make her fight moving backwards, where her offense is limited. Grasso can be low volume at times & let her opponents dictate the pace of the fight. Her last fight was probably the best striking performance of her career as she was able to go first & dominate. She can also get her kicks caught & be taken down that way. Grasso doesn’t have the biggest power, but she has some pop & 4 KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes
I actually think Grasso is a better grappler than striker. She doesn’t necessarily have the wrestling to get the fight to the ground, but she has great takedown defense & scrambling ability. She has a strong underhook game in the clinch & will control opponents in that position, while landing knees and elbows over the top. Grasso will go for singles occasionally against the cage. She will use her sprawl to take the back. Grasso also will use a front choke, and even flying guillotines to counter the takedowns. Grasso was able to deny most of the takedown attempts from Randa Markos, and even used the underhook & heavy hips to reverse to top position. The only way Randa Markos was able to take Alexa Grasso down was through catching her kicks. Grasso has an active guard and will throw up armbars & triangles. She is hard to hold down & will work back up to her feet. She likes to belly down & transition into a single leg or body lock. It does expose her back & she was submitted via rear-naked choke trying to stand up vs Suarez. Markos was able to get to dominant positions and landed some good G&P from mount. In her last fight, she was submitted very quickly vs the best grappler in the division in Tatiana Suarez. She was actually able to deny the initial takedown attempt and reversed position against the cage. She stood up a couple times from bottom, but overall, she was rag-dolled & submitted fairly quickly. When she takes top position, she is very aggressive looking for G&P & advancing position. Due to that she doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters are able to scramble back to her feet. She isn’t a submission threat with 0 submissions & has just been submitted one time in her career. Grasso has great cardio & usually has a strong third round.
Carla Esparza
Age: 31
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Carla Esparza was able to win a decision against Jandiroba in her last match. Esparza had lost two straight fights previously, so it was good to see her bounce back. Esparza is being fed to Grasso here it seems & needs to prove her worth by turning back the young up & comer. Esparza has been training at big bear for this camp which is at elevation, but significantly lower than Mexico City. This will be the first fight in Mexico for Esparza & the second fight outside of the United States. She is 0-1 losing in Canada to Randa Markos. Esparza is a much-improved striker and has much better footwork on the feet. She does a good job of using head movement & feinting her way inside & being in & out. She will circle to the right & walk opponents into heavy leg kicks, straights & right hooks. She will throw an inside leg kick, overhand left combination. Carla will wain forward with hook combinations. She does a good job of faking level changes & throwing body & head shots off it. She is great when she blitzes forward, throwing in combination & not getting tired. She will throw superman punches & front kicks. She shouldn’t throw kicks in this fight & just look to box. Esparza has 3 KO/TKO’s. She got TKO’d in her last match & took a lot damage on the mat. She has been finished by strikes twice in her career.
Carla Esparza is a NCAA college wrestler. She has shown that defeating good Jiu-Jitsu fighters with top control such as Rose Namajunas. Esparza has nice double leg overhands and good top control. She doesn’t have devastating ground & pound, but she will move to dominant positions and control on top. Her takedown defense is not bad, but in her last three fights she has been taken down in every fight. She can blitz in & give her hips away at times with her striking. She does do a good job of exiting with knees to the body if she can see the takedown coming. Off her back, I don’t really like Esparza. She doesn’t have good get-ups & can get exhausted having to fend off takedown attempts. She is tough, will never give up, and continue to scramble & try to win the fight even if she’s exhausted or getting dominated. Esparza has taken down all 9 of her UFC opponents, and isn’t a slouch in the grappling department, but should look to keep it on the feet here. Esparza does have 5 submissions & been submitted only once.
This is going to be primarily a striker vs grappler fight. Grasso is the better striker here and as long as this fight is on the feet I see her winning. Her weakness is being put on her back though and Esparza is a wrestler. If Esparza can consistently get takedowns in all 3-rounds, then she is probably going to win. I think Grasso is improving every fight though and I think she will be able to either stuff takedowns or get back to her feet when she is taken down. She will also have the crowd on her side here. I like Grasso to win a striking decision, but we could see some close rounds if she can’t stuff takedowns.
This midrange pricing puts both these ladies in play and I think both are fine for cash as well. If Esparza wins, she is probably going to have multiple takedowns and I think she can score well in a decision. If Grasso wins, then she will have kept the fight on the feet and she can set a high enough pace to get 10x+ with just sig strikes. I won’t be targeting this fight heavily, but I wouldn’t talk you off the side you like. I prefer Grasso here in all formats though and if I have 20 lineups I would probably have 1-3 Grasso and 0-1 Esparza.
Winner – Alexa Grasso via Unanimous Decision
Yair Rodriguez $8,200 vs Jeremy Stephens $8,000
Yair Rodriguez
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Lobo Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 7-1
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Yair Rodriguez is coming off one of the most miraculous wins in UFC history. He was one second away from losing a decision, before landing an insane elbow that put Korean Zombie out cold. This will be his first fight in 2019, but I think it’s good he took time off. The fight with Zombie was a FOTY candidate, and he did take a lot of damage. Rodriguez is a dynamic striker and one of the most fun fighters to watch. He has strong, low leg kicks, and I think he needs to use those and circle off to stop the forward motion of Stephens. He will also throw oblique kicks to the knee and front kicks to the body. He has a nasty spinning back kick to the body, and to the head. Rodriguez isn’t a great boxer, but he is a Mexican warrior and will sit down and trade with opponents on the inside. He likes to throw a check left hook or straight right hand. He has a nice spinning back fist in close range. He is very dangerous and can finish the fight at any time. He has 5 KO/TKO’s and has been finished twice with strikes. Rodriguez needs to make this an outside fight, he needs to move, throw leg kicks to make Stephens reset and then try to find a finishing shot as Stephens closes the distance.
Rodriguez is a decent wrestler, he is good at timing double legs, but I see him using anti-wrestling in this fight if anything. Rodriguez is good in the clinch, he has good trip takedowns, and he is good defensively in the clinch. He didn’t have good takedown defense when Edgar got in on his legs and wasn’t able to get-up or threaten from his back. He usually does have a very active guard and will throw up triangles or armbars. If he gets taken down by Stephens I think that he will be in trouble and needs to avoid getting the fight taken to the ground. He has 3 submissions and never been submitted himself.
Jeremy Stephens
Age: 33
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Alliance MMA/Entram Gym
From: California
UFC Record: 15-15
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Jeremy Stephens needs to bounce back from consecutive losses. He had strung 3 wins in a row together in early 2018 but was finished when given the opportunity at former champion Jose Aldo. He returned earlier this year to fight super prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov & lost a tight decision. Stephens did seem like he was picking up as the fight went on & the pressure was getting to Zabit. I’m sure Stephens is happy he has 5 rounds here to try to break Rodriguez. Both fighters have phenomenal cardio, and even in Mexico City I expect this to be a high paced fight. Jeremy Stephens is a seek & destroy type of fighter. He has arguably the most power in the division & is extremely durable. He is constantly marching opponents down, switching stances to try to cut off the cage. He will mix in heavy, low kicks to try to slow their movement as well. He has an excellent jab. He will double jab his way into range for combinations. He has a nasty double jab two & double jab, overhand right. He will attack the body with those same combinations as well. He likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries to the body & then go to the head. He will fake the body shots & throw heavy uppercuts. He has a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He has good head movement. He will slip the jab and come over the top with heavy right hooks & overhand rights. He is a bruiser & willing to sit in the pocket & take one to give one. You saw this very notably in a recent main event of his. He was dropped in an exchange vs Josh Emmett, but proceeded to get-up off the canvas, then drop & knockout Josh Emmett brutally. He will use spinning backfists to catch opponents circling off the cage. I expect his whole game plan in this fight to be predicated on making Rodriguez go backwards, jamming his kicks & trying to get him to fight with his back near the cage. When Stephens gets opponents stationary against the cage, that’s where he’s dangerous & dynamic. He will dig heavy shots to the body & come over the top with one-shot knockout punches. He will throw nasty flying knees he has flat-lined opponents with. He also throws nice high kicks & has knockouts with those as well. In this fight, I see him trying to use his hands & leg kicks mostly, walk Yair down, make him fight off the back foot, and turn up with combinations when he cuts him off. Stephens can overextend at times & fall in love with his power. His forward pressure style also always gives him the chance to walk into something. His chin has been granite over his career, but he was finished recently due to a body shot vs Jose Aldo. Maybe it’s a good idea for Rodriguez to target the body with shots & try to take him out that way. Stephens didn’t slow down one bit in his last fight with Zabit & if he can keep that same pace in this fight except for 5 rounds it will be interesting to see what happens. Rodriguez was gassed out in round 5 of his last match & Korean Zombie let him off the hook a bit giving high fives & hugging. Stephens when he sees Yair tired will take his head. He isn’t going to be high fiving or any of that. Stephens has one punch knockout power & 19 career KO/TKO’s. He has a great chin & is very durable. He has been finished KO/TKO just twice in his career.
Jeremy Stephens is probably going to be the better wrestler in this matchup. I don’t see him using a game plan of offensive wrestling, but I don’t expect to have to him to worry about being taken down. Zabit was able to win round two vs Stephens by taking him down & taking his back. Stephens was able to defend the takedowns initially & get back to his feet, but Magomedsharipov is very long & has excellent riding ability with his wrestling. Stephens made Zabit work to get the takedown & didn’t take a ton of damage on the ground. I do think Zabit needed the wrestling to rest, because he looked tired late in round 3. If Yair is gassing due to the forward pressure, I don’t think he has the option to grapple. Jeremy Stephens will look for cage control or double leg takedowns if he’s getting outclassed on the feet. He hasn’t had to resort to that in a long time though. One of the most dangerous aspects of Stephens game though, is his ground & pound. If he drops a fighter or gets on top somehow, he will go crazy with ruthless ground & pound. He will rain down brutal hammerfists & elbows and puts fighters out cold. He knocked Choi out with nasty ground & pound and broke several bones in the face of Josh Emmett. If Rodriguez is on the bottom against Stephens, he better be ready to control posture as best he can.
This is going to be a fun fight that should play out on the feet. Yair is the more well-rounded, flashier striker. I think he is quicker as well and he will be the home favorite with this fight being in Mexico City. Stephens is the more powerful striker though and he will likely be the guy pressuring forward while Yair will look more to hit and move to avoid Stephens’ big power. Stephens could knock out anybody in the UFC, and I think that is going to be his best path to victory here. I think Yair will be the guy landing more strikes and he will have the crowd cheering for him as well which could sway judges. Plus, he could get a KO of his own. I think this fight goes all 5-rounds though and I will take Yair to win a 49-46 Unanimous Decision here.
With this being 5-rounds and right in the midrange of the salaries it makes it an all-in fight for me. I would be shocked if the winner had less than 10x here and they probably get closer to 100+ DK points. I will also be stacking this fight in cash because people will get too cute thinking they know who will win and I would rather just take the 100+ and the win and accept the loss as well. I have no issues losing 2 fights each week in cash and this is a close fight even if you do think you know who wins. For GPPs, I will probably be around 65/35 in favor of Yair. I think Stephens will be the more popular guy this week and Yair is my pick to win, so that is where I want to get some leverage. If you want to go 65/35 the other way I think that is totally fine. I won’t be stacking this fight in GPPs though because I don’t see there being enough action for that to work, especially at altitude.
Winner – Yair Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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