BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 242 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Abu Dhabi. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $50k prize. I do plan on going lighter than usual on this card though, so I might make 10 or less lineups this week. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Don Madge $8,700 vs Fares Ziam $7,500
Don Madge
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Fight Fit Militia
From: South Africa
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 159
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -155
Don Madge is making his second appearance in the UFC octagon. He had a lot of momentum coming off his UFC debut. He was a huge underdog but was able to upset Te Edwards via nasty head kick knockout. He didn’t really capitalize off the momentum & it’s been nearly a year since he’s fought. He was supposed to fight fellow striker Magomed Mustafaev, but a UFC debutant has had to replace him & step in on short notice. Don Madge is a great striker. He is a veteran of over 100 Muay Thai fights. He likes to come forward with a high guard & back opponents up. He throws straight, sharp, has a nice uppercut, and a good one-two. He has a nice lead left hook & will throw a left hook, right hook combination. He throws nice leg kicks. Hs has a really nice rear leg round & front kick to the body. In his last fight, after going to the body with the kicks, he went high & landed a rear leg round kick to the head. He followed that up with another head kick with the other leg knocking his opponent out. He slips & rips well in the pocket & has nice punching combinations. He has experience fighting 5 round fights and has good overall cardio. He also had nice knees and has a finish via knees in his career. He has fought some big names in Muay Thai and is actually a pretty big star in Thailand and South Africa. He looks to have a good chin and is very calm in a war. Madge has 5 career knockouts & has been finished by strikes just once.
Due to Madge’s extensive Muay Thai experience, he is solid in the clinch. He has good knees, elbows, and nice body lock takedowns. When he gets opponents down, he does a good job of getting to the back and getting a rear naked choke. He doesn’t seem to be a great wrestler, offensively or defensively, but he is good in scrambles and when he ends up on top he does a good job of getting to the back and finishing. In his last fight, he was taken down, but was able to attack off his back with an armbar & triangle. He has finished all his wins and is 0-1-1 in decisions. His 3 losses in MMA have all been to the same person, one via TKO, one via submission and one via split decision. Madge is going to need to chop the legs, go to the body, back Ziam up & try to break him down. He has to deny the takedowns & keep the fight on the feet.
Fares Ziam
Age: 22
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Bulgarian Top Team
From: France
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 155
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +135
Fares Ziam is jumping into this spot on short notice. He is a 10-2 fighter from France. Ziam has won 5 consecutive fights with 4 finishes. Ziam is a glory kick boxer also & going to want to keep this fight on the feet. He has nasty, chopping leg kicks he throws early & often. He likes to throw a jab followed by leg kicks inside & outside. He has a good one-two. His straight-right hand is nasty. It’s extremely accurate & stuns opponents almost every time it lands. He has a nice counter left hook. He will throw nice round & front kicks to the body & head. He will feint low & go high with kicks & has a couple head kick knockouts. Ziam’s movement is not the best in my opinion. He stands tall & doesn’t control the center well. He gets cut off & will be stuck with his back against the fence & his chin high. Opponents are able to attack the body as well as land overhands & hooks to the head. He is dangerous in close range with elbows & short punches. He is very fast & has power that back fighters off. He has pretty good durability, but I have seen him dropped to the body in Glory. He has never been finished in MMA by strikes. Ziam has 5 career knockouts.
Fares Ziam is a tall, long fighter & it helps him be very dangerous in the clinch. He will dig double underhooks or get the Muay Thai plum & land big shots. He has nasty knees to the body and head & sick elbows. He can knock opponents out with clinch strikes. He will also go for body lock takedowns. He even was able to circle to the back & get a suplex in a recent fight showing he’s improving his wrestling. He had a very nice double leg in his last fight. He likes to take the back. I actually think he’s a better grappler than striker in MMA. His ground game on bottom looks questionable & his takedown defense needs work. He has pretty good takedown defense in the clinch, but not against wrestling shots. He can also throw kicks without enough space at times. When he’s taken down, he doesn’t show much off his back. He allows opponents to pass into dominant positions and gives up his back to stand up. He is explosive & sometimes can scramble back up to his feet, but he has been submitted twice by rear naked choke. He does have a triangle choke off his back, along with a rear naked choke. He also got a guillotine choke in his last match. Fares needs to work on his ground game, but with his length, he should at least be able to become good defensively. Offensively Ziam already has good grappling & 3 career submissions. In this fight I think Ziam needs to get takedowns & control from top position. I think he will be able to land some nice counters & the striking will be close, but I think overall Madge is the better striker. Ziam needs to have long periods of top control to win this fight.
Madge looked very impressive in his UFC debut and now he is fighting a solid prospect in Siam who is making his UFC debut on this card. I think this will be a fun fight, but I have to go with Madge here. I think his striking is going to be too sharp here and I think he can have success on the ground as well. I see him hurting Siam at some point and jumping on his back and finishing with a rear-naked choke submission.
On DraftKings, I have a good amount of interest in this fight as a whole. My preferred play is Madge though and I think he can finish on the feet or the ground. I like the -160 FDGTD line as well and this is the first fight of the night, which I always like. I think Madge will have a decent amount of ownership though and I think Ziam could go a bit overlooked. I am going to look to be overweight to Ziam now and maybe even double my projected ownership. I could see me having about 20% of both of these guys and I would guess that puts me in line with the field on Madge and over on Ziam. This pretty much is a GPP fight only for me though.
Winner – Don Madge via 2nd round Submission
Omari Akhmedov $8,300 vs Zak Cummings $7,900
Zak Cummings
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +100
Zak Cummings is 2-0 since moving up to 185 lbs. He is coming off one of the best performances of his career against Trevin Giles. He was the underdog in that fight but was able to eat some big shots, stay right in the pocket, and eventually find his own. Cummings opened a big underdog in this matchup, but the line has changed a lot & now Cummings is the slight favorite. Cummings is a southpaw, pressure fighter on the feet. He has started to implement more stance switching. He likes to switch stances & throw outside leg kicks from both legs. He likes to feint a lot, draw out counters, and then go. He will throw some good jabs. He has a good check right hook and left uppercut. His straight-left hand is powerful, and probably his best shot on the feet. He is low output and can get stuck waiting for his opponents to throw. He is flat footed, and faster fighters can close the distance, land and get out. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw head kicks as well. He has a strong chin and is extremely durable. His ability to take punishment is phenomenal. He has never been finished by strikes in his career. He has 6 KO/TKO’s.
Cummings is a very good grappler & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is strong in the clinch. He has nice knees to the body and legs. He does a good job of trapping the wrist, and then disengaging with a big combination. He will throw big hooks to the body. He has good singles, and body lock takedowns. He isn’t very active in looking to get fights to the mat and has preferred to strike mostly. He gets most of his takedowns when opponents shoot in on him. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his last 6 UFC fights. He will lock in nasty front chokes. He has a great guillotine & used that to win his last fight. In that fight, he dropped Trevin Giles, and jumped on the guillotine choke. Cummings has 12 submissions in his career & has just been submitted one time. 3 of his last 4 wins have come via submission. In this fight, Cummings has to be a brick wall. He has to walk Akhmedov down & constantly go forward. When Akhmedov lands or tries to throw a hook combo, counter and stand his ground. He should look to counter with straight punches as Akhmedov throws wide. If Akhmedov goes for a takedown, stuff it or make him pay by taking top position. He has to pick up the pace as the fight goes on & maybe try to take Omari out in round 3.
Omari Akhmedov
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: DagFighter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 6-3-1
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Omari Akhmedov returned from a long layoff to take out Tim Boetsch in March. He is one of the more unsung fighters in that division having been unbeaten in his last 4 fights. He hasn’t lost since 2016, & that loss was to a monster in Zaleski Dos Santos. A win for either guy would be massive & push them into top 10-15 matchups. Akhmedov has been fighting some unsung but very tough fighters such as Zaleski Dos Santos, Marvin Vettori, & Razak Alhassan. I feel he should be talked about a little more, but his weight class changes & layoffs have quelled his momentum. Akhmedov is a solid striker. He can strike going forward or backwards. He likes to use lateral movement & walk opponents into leg kicks, hooks & overhands. He throws pretty nasty, inside low kicks & will wing dangerous hooks & overhands. He has a pretty good straight-right hand as well. When Akhmedov goes forward, he doesn’t throw a lot of variety, but a lot of volume. He will come forward throwing big, looping hooks. It’s a Russian style striking, big casting hooks to close a lot of distance. He does a good job of using his lead hand to gauge distance & then leaping into them. He has a nice straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will attack the body as well with straights & hooks. When he goes forward & gets confidence he will get very aggressive. He has some good body kicks & throws front kicks to the face. His defense isn’t the best. When he’s in the pocket he throws a lot of wide shots. Opponents are able to throw tighter, straight punches & counter him. When he gets hit he will just back up in a straight line. Marvin Vettori was able to put together some long punching combinations by just continuing to pressure forward. Akhmedov can be low output at times & just try to pot shit from the outside. He can allow opponents to control the center & throw more volume especially in the later rounds. He has been stunned & knocked out in the past but is very durable. He can take a lot of damage & has big heart. When he gets stunned he will plant his feet & trade. He is actually very dangerous when he’s hurt. Akhmedov has been TKO’d in his two UFC losses. He throws hard & if he connects, opponents are in trouble. He has 7 KO/TKO’s including 2 in the UFC.
Omari Akhmedov is a strong grappler. He doesn’t have the cardio or top game to grind for three rounds so he wrestles in spots. In his last fight with Tim Boetsch, he did have good clinch control. He was able to dig double underhooks and control the bigger fighter. He landed some nice shoulder shrugs & knees to the body. He went for a few body lock & trip takedowns but couldn’t land any. He has shown some good single & double leg takedowns. When he fought Abdul Razak Alhassan he used his striking to set takedowns up very well in that fight. He doesn’t have the greatest top control, and fighters’ get-up from bottom on him. In this fight, it’s interesting, because I’m not sure Akhmedov wants to try to takedown a BJJ black belt like Cummings. Akhmedov has 5 submissions, but none in the UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career. Akhmedov also tends to gas out, especially when opponents put pressure on him. He will try to keep opponents off with pot shots, but he noticeably fades. In this fight, that’s what I see Omari trying to do. I think he will work the leg kicks, & counter boxing to try to stick & move. I don’t see him going for takedowns in this fight, but maybe will look to control him against the cage.
This is a close fight on the feet and on the mat. I have no real lean on this fight, but I think it will be a back and forth, slower paced fight that mainly takes place on the feet. I don’t see either guy having much higher volume and if neither land takedowns then I think it will come down to who lands the harder shots. I think Cummings is the more dangerous fighter though and more likely to finish. I also think Akhmedov is more likely to slow down as the fight goes on. I think this is close to a 50/50 fight, but I am going to lean with Cummings to get his hand raised.
On DraftKings, I don’t have a lot of interest in either side of this fight. My preferred play is Cummings because I am picking him to win and he is the underdog. But I don’t think either guy has a high ceiling, so I’d prefer Cummings more as a cash game option, but I don’t like many dogs on this card so it puts him in play for GPPs as well. I doubt Akhmedov makes my player pool with 20 or less lineups but he does have a KO chance and should be low owned. If you want to be contrarian then he could be a way to $50k, I just don’t see it.
Winner – Zak Cummings via Split Decision
Nordine Taleb $8,200 vs Muslim Salikhov $8,000
Nordine Taleb
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: France
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Nordine Taleb comes in the slight favorite in a battle of two top 15 hopefuls. Taleb has been lingering around that area for what seems like ages & just hasn’t been able to break through. He bounced back from back to back losses to win against Kyle Propelec in his last fight. At 37 years old this is a must win for Taleb. Taleb is a very technical striker. He likes to counter himself & play the outside game. He has a nice jab & good at moving in & out. He will throw a jab, left hook & has nice one-twos. He has nasty kicks with both legs. He will throw heavy leg & body kicks with no wind up. He has a very nice counter, straight-right hand he will pull counter with. He will throw the right leg round kick to the body to a straight-right hand combination. He has nasty front kicks to the body along with jumping switch kicks. He has great round kicks to the head as well. He likes to catch kicks and throw a right hand down the pipe. He is very fast with his kicks. He likes to pick his shots, pot shot & move, and is low volume. He likes to fight a deliberate pace, but he also can bite down on the mouth piece & go to war. He showed this against Santiago Ponzinibbio. He was knocked out by Sean Strickland & I feel his durability could be going a bit. He has good defense & has been historically hard to hit in the UFC. Taleb has power with 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished just twice.
Taleb is very strong & a decent grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ under Firas Zahabi. He is good at denying the clinch & exiting with a big knee to the body or elbow. He doesn’t go for takedowns much but will reverse & get on top. He will also shoot double legs when he can back an opponent against the cage. He has gotten one takedown in his last four fights. That takedown was against Claudio Silva where he didn’t even follow him to the mat. He did show a good wrestling game in the past, but that was in 2015 against a lesser opponent. He has a good sprawl and is good at denying clinch entries. He is very physically strong. Taleb is methodical & very heavy on top. He likes to pressure pass to dominant positions such as side control. He has heavy elbows when he lets them go. He is also good at catching kicks & dumping opponents. He can have lapses in judgement in grappling scenarios. He ended up on his back against Oliver Enkamp by being too aggressive in a scramble. In his fight vs Claudio Silva, he went for an ill-advised leg lock attempt, gave his back & was submitted shortly thereafter. In this fight, I think maybe his path to victory is through wrestling & he at least has to threaten with it even to create striking openings. Taleb should have an advantage if he takes top position, but he has zero submission finishes. He has been submitted two times. In this fight I think Taleb has to own the center & use his wrestling to get takedowns or setup his strikes. He needs to attack with body locks & double legs and see if he can get Salikhov down. If he can’t, he needs to use those takedown attempts to come over the top with shots. He also is going to have a significant reach advantage, so if he can use his kicks & long-range attacks to keep Salikhov on the outside, that could be a path to victory.
Muslim Salikhov
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Berkut FC
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Muslim Salikhov is in a similar situation to Taleb. He doesn’t have nearly the experience in the UFC, but at 35 he has to get going. Salikhov was a legendary Wushu & kickboxing competitor but is only 1-1 so far in his UFC tenure. He lost his UFC debut, but bounced back in a big way with a vicious knockout his last fight. He hasn’t fought in over a year & a half, and let that momentum slip away. He was suspended by USADA for Turinabol but was cleared due to them not being able to decipher if he took it before or after he was in the UFC. At 35 years old that is a question mark, because if he was using he may look bad here. Salikhov hasn’t beaten anyone noteworthy so far in his MMA career & this would be his biggest win by far. He did defeat Melvin Guillard, who doesn’t fight these days. Salikhov is extremely light on his feet. He has great distance control, in & out movement, and feints. He is super-fast closing the distance with both punches & kicks. He has a nasty jab & heavy low kicks. He has a nice, leaping left hook & overhand right. He will throw nasty left hook & straight-right counters as opponents try to get inside. He is always looking to setup spinning attacks which are extremely dangerous. He pull counters excellently with his punches & kicks. He has many KO’s with spinning techniques. He has flawless technique on his spinning back kicks both to the body & head. He will start low & attack the body until opponents lower their guard & then go high. He has excellent spinning backfists as well. He has a nasty switch kick to the body & head. This man is a problem on the feet. He has over 100 combined knockouts between his Kickboxing, Wushu & MMA careers. He added a UFC knockout to his resume in his last fight in brutal fashion. His defense on the feet is excellent. He has great head movement, circles out excellently, and has great eyes. He catches kicks & counters with punches as his opponents are off balance. The only issue I would say he has is sometimes he can get hit with overhands after opponents feint takedowns. Overall, he is just very quick & hard to hit. He has never been knocked out in MMA. In 199 kickboxing matches he has been knocked out 1 time.
Salikhov isn’t an offensive grappler, but pretty good defensively. He is very strong & his footwork makes it hard to time a shot on him. Alex Garcia was able to take him down by putting him against the fence & chain wrestling. His initial takedown defense is very strong. He has a heavy sprawl & digs good underhooks to deny doubles. His issue is with chain wresting because he is slow in the transitions. He is explosive & will look for moments to dig an underhook & get back to his feet, but he needs work off his back. When he got taken down by Alex Garcia, he was able to reverse & stand back up in round one but was quickly finished in the second when taken down. He was taken down against the cage, took some big ground & pound, gave his back & was rear naked choked. His takedown defense is probably always improving & it’s already pretty good. Both Salikhov’s MMA losses have come via rear naked choke. He has two career submissions both via arm triangles. Getting a submission over a brown belt is not very likely here. He is going to want to keep it standing & get the knockout. He needs to use a lot of feints, fakes & forward pressure. He needs to back Taleb up, cut the cage off & then counter when Taleb makes mistakes. Taleb likes to catch kicks & vs Salikhov that may be a bad idea. If he fakes low & goes high, Taleb could be in trouble. He should try to attack the lower body with leg kicks body kicks & then start to go high later in the fight. He should be the much quicker fighter with his footwork. Salikhov also needs to stay off his back. If he can make this a striking fight he will be tough to beat.
I think Taleb is the more well-rounded fighter and that is why he is favored in this fight. His edge in this fight would be mixing in takedowns and winning rounds with top control or trying to get a submission. However, he has no submissions on his record and I don’t know that he is good enough to land takedowns consistently here. I think we might have a striking battle in this one and I think Salikhov has the edge on the feet. I think will be the one landing harder shots and that could help him win a decision, but I think he gets a knockout at some point in this fight.
Salikhov is my preferred play in this one but I don’t think this is a fight we have to force into our lineups. Salikhov is in play for me for the KO potential but if he doesn’t get a KO he could lose or just not score highly in a win. Nordine, I am not really interested in because there are other favorites I would rather target more, and I don’t know how high of a ceiling Nordine has here. I wouldn’t talk anybody off him, I just don’t think I will be on him personally. Salikhov is in play in all formats for me but he won’t be a guy I force into lineups.
Winner – Muslim Salikhov via 2nd round (T)KO
Belal Muhammad $9,100 vs Takashi Sato $7,100
Belal Muhammad
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -365
Belal Muhammad bounced back from his decision loss to Geoff Neal with a unanimous decision victory over Curtis Millender. Muhammad is 5-1 in his last 6 UFC fights. Muhammad is a very dedicated fighter who will definitely be ready to go & in fantastic shape. He is a forward pressure fighter on the feet with good distance control. Muhammad is a technically sound, well-rounded fighter. He has very crisp boxing. He has a great lead hand, nice jabs & left hooks. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He has a solid one-two & will throw a jab, overhand right or an overhand right lead. He is good at slipping the jab & throwing an overhand right. He will throw one-twos to the body to a right hook to the head. In the pocket he is very good. He can slip & return and picks his shots well. He has nice, cheeky uppercuts in close range. He will use his jab to set up his right hand and right hook and will throw 8-10 punch combinations keeping super heavy pressure & volume on opponents. He does a great job of sliding out of the way of shots & countering with jabs & straight-right hands. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional round kick to the body & front kicks to the head. He is not much of a kicker, and predominately a boxer. He is good at cutting off the cage, and safely getting inside with feints & fakes. He has great cardio & is usually the fighter controlling the center of the cage. He likes to hand fight to create openings for punches. He does hold his hands low & can walk into punches at times. Sato is a slick counter puncher, so Muhammad has to be defensively sound here. He doesn’t have big power, and only has 4 career TKO’s. He has a strong chin, and opponents will have to put him out cold to stop him. He has good ability to recover, and tie opponents up on the ground when they go for the finish. His cardio allows him to fully recover & start to put the pressure back on quickly. He has been KO’d only one time in his career.
Muhammad is the better grappler in this match. If he can’t get the takedown, he will still push opponents to the cage and grind in the clinch. He has good knees to the body and will exit with spinning backfists & elbows. He does a good job of transitioning from a single to a double getting his hands locked & dumping opponents. Muhammad is a strong wrestler. He has very good timing on singles & especially double legs. I expect a heavy dose of wrestling in this fight, due to the obvious weakness in Sato’s game on the ground. On top, he has solid control & good elbows. He also has good back takes. I highly doubt he will get put on his back here, unless he is dropped. He isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career. He has never been submitted himself.
Takashi Sato
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tribe Tokyo MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 87
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +305
Takashi Sato had a successful UFC debut. He earned a nice knockout against veteran Ben Saunders. He is getting a big opportunity here to jump the ladder. If he can defeat Belal Muhammad he will likely have a ranked opponent in his next fight. Sato has a lot to gain & not much to lose here. Sato is a good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab, & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow which is nasty. He will attack the body with nasty body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent at just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard, because he’s able to see the shots coming, move counter & discourage his opponents. He also is heavy on his lead leg & is there to be leg kicked. That is something Belal Muhammad is very good at, so he needs to be ready to check kicks. Sato has a good chin but can be hurt. He has gotten rocked on several occasions & knocked out before. He has good recoverability & has only been finished by strikes one time. Sato has knockout power with 10 KO/TKO’s.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body lock & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game, he likes to take the back & will get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last two fights via ground & pound. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch, he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at sprawling & circling to the back himself. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control. Sato isn’t a submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted one time.
I think Muhammad is the better striker and wrestler here. He should be the guy pushing the pace and controlling where the fight takes place. I think Sato is live for a counter punch KO but other than that I think Muhammad will be too much for him. I see Muhammad boxing him up and mixing in takedowns to win a clear 30-27 decision here.
I think both sides are in play for this fight, but I think the best play is Muhammad for cash. Not even saying I will use that myself, I just like him for the win and he is probably good for ~82 points. I don’t love that for GPPs, but he does have a higher ceiling than that, so he probably makes my GPP player pool. I would just rather target other fighters in that range. Sato is a GPP only play and that is because he has a KO chance and will be very low owned. I don’t like his chances at the KO but if he gets it he will score high and have a shot at that $50k. If I was making 10 lineups I would guess they both make maybe 1 lineup for GPPs. I am not against fully fading this fight either.
Winner – Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision
Ottman Azaitar $8,900 vs Teemu Packalen $7,300
Ottman Azaitar
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Jupps Fight Team
From: Morocco
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 142
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -235
Ottman Azaitar will be making his UFC debut at 11-0. His brother fought in the UFC earlier this year, but Ottman will try to be the first in the family to earn a win. Azaitar is an athletic, explosive guy, but not very technical. Azaitar is very aggressive & throws a lot of volume. He will throw a lot of kicks, one-twos, and jab, overhand rights early. He will throw leaping, lefts hooks to the body & head. In his last match, the first left hook he landed ended the fight in less than 20 seconds. He will throw nice left hooks to the body to right hooks to the head. He throws a lot of volume & when he gets hit he just returns with punches of his own. It makes it a 50-50 fight & he’s been dropped several times. He does have big power & has been able to win those kinds of knockdown, drag out fights so far. He has nice leg kicks, good round & front kicks to the body. He will throw occasional head kicks. At times his kicks come slow & sloppy. His defense on the feet is poor. He holds his hands low to begin with & when he punches, he doesn’t bring them back to his face. He holds his chin right in the air and doesn’t move his head. He will sit in the pocket & throw wide hooks & uppercuts but leaves himself super open to hit. Ottman has 7 KO/TKO’s including 3 in a row. He has never been finished by strikes.
Ottman Azaitar is a strong fighter for the division, but an average grappler. In the clinch he has nasty knees to the body. He will dig double underhooks, push opponents to the cage, and get body locks or double legs. On top, he is very aggressive with ground & pound. His top control isn’t great & he doesn’t have much of a submission threat. He has one rear naked choke victory. Azaitar’s takedown defense is not good. He will jump on guillotines instead of defending at times & only has one guillotine victory. Off his back he doesn’t have much at all. He doesn’t have good get-ups & gasses out on bottom. He doesn’t have great cardio in the later rounds if it’s a grappling heavy fight. Azaitar has two submissions. In this fight Azaitar is going to want to try to catch Packalen coming in or time a knee on his entry. He is going to have the power advantage here, and I think he will be faster.
Teemu Packalen
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Primus Fight Team
From: Finland
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 years 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +195
Teemu Packalen is making his return after taking over 2.5 years off. The combined time of his last two fights have been less than a minute. He is 1-2 in the UFC but has been in the octagon a grand total of 54 seconds in over 4 years. Packalen is a very tall 155er with a long reach. He is going to be significantly taller in this matchup. Packalen is a ground specialist with limited striking skills. Packalen likes to move, throw long punches likes jabs, straight-rights, and then dive on the legs. He will close the distance with straight punch flurries. He can feint takedowns & come over the top with powerful overhands. He will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw some occasional kicks but not many. His defense is not good. He will reach a lot, extending his hands from his face, and holds his hands low. He stands tall & is susceptible to body shots. When he finished Thiboult Gouti, he dropped him with an uppercut, jumped on the back & got a rear naked choke. In his last fight he got knocked out very badly against Marc Diakiese. Packalen has 2 KO/TKO’s both on the ground.
Teemu Packalen is a good submission grappler. He has a pretty good single leg. He shoots it quickly, but after a couple shots it becomes very obvious. He will get in on the single to pull guard as well. He will attack leg locks when he pulls guard. When he takes top position, he is aggressive looking for submissions. He will hunt kimuras from half guard or side control & jump on rear naked chokes. In guard off his back, he will attack with armbars, triangles & is dangerous. All his finishes have come on the ground. He has finished all 8 of his fights. This is a winnable fight for Packalen. He needs to make Azaitar work, get him tired & try to find a submission on the ground.
Azaitar is making his UFC debut here and he hasn’t fought in over a year. Packalen hasn’t fought in 2 years himself so we could see improvements from both guys here and I really don’t have a strong lean either way on this fight. I think Azaitar will be the better overall striker but mostly because of his power. I think he can dictate where this fight takes place as well, but I think Packalen could have an edge on the ground and possibly submit him. I’ll lean with Azaitar by KO but there are too many unknowns for me to be confident in that pick with his -210 odds.
I think this is a great fight to target for GPPs with the -215 FDGTD line. My preferred play is Azaitar and he is going to be a core play for me this week in GPPs. I think he has a good shot at an early KO. I think he is in play in all formats but more so GPPs. I do think he will come with a lot of ownership though, so I am going to look to have more than 40% to be above the field. I want some Teemu as well because I don’t think anybody will be on him this week and if I am going to have a lot of Azaitar lineups then I do want some hedge lineups here. Teemu winning could score a lot of points and it would kill off a good portion of lineups with Azaitar, so he is an ownership play for me but GPP only for him.
Winner – Ottman Azaitar via 1st round (T)KO
Liana Jojua $8,400 vs Sarah Moras $7,800
Liana Jojua
Age: 24
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Akhmat Fight Club
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -145
Liana Jojua is a 7-2 prospect out of Georgia. She has won 5 consecutive fights to get this opportunity. I was not really impressed with Jojua’s striking. She doesn’t really offer much & is slow & stiff. She really will only look for one-twos. She will throw a left hook, straight-right & left hook, overhand right. She doesn’t throw many kicks or much of anything besides that. She does keep heavy pressure on opponents & keeps them on the back foot. She has pretty good composure & looks durable. She has never been finished. Her stand up isn’t very dangerous & she just has one career TKO.
Jojua’s grappling doesn’t look bad. She will use her punches to get in & duck under for double legs. She looks to be ok in the clinch & will attack the body heavily with punches & elbows. She will get some clinch takedowns as well. She has no problem pulling guard or dropping for leg locks. Her wrestling really isn’t that good, offensively or defensively. In her last match, she was taken down several times & was controlled in top position. She is a leg lock girl & always hunting for the legs & 50-50 position. She will finish them but is very adept at using them to sweep. She has nice armbars off her back as well. In top position, she has good ground & pound and passes well. She will go to side control & throw down heavy hammerfists. She is a finisher on the mat with 5 submissions. She has been submitted one time. In her last fight she got put in some armbars but was easily able to defend. Against Sarah Moras, she may get her arm broken. She needs to be sharper & avoid even being in that situation. Jojua has good cardio & went 5 rounds hard in her last match. I actually thought she lost that fight even with a point deduction for her opponent. She is still young at 24 years old & has a winnable matchup here. In this fight she needs to go for takedowns or sweeps off her back. I think the striking is probably 50-50 or 60-40 Moras so she should try to get top position. In my opinion, Moras has very bad takedown defense & if she can get top position she may be able to grind out a win.
Sarah Moras
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Toshido MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +125
Sarah Moras is in dire need of a win. She has lost 3 consecutive fights, and four of five overall. She has been in the UFC since 2013 but is on her last limb here. She has some nice wins but with a record of 5-5 she is hard to trust. Moras is a grappler, who is an armbar specialist. She is very aggressive on the feet, and likes to close the distance with wide hooks, followed by head kick at times. She will throw hard, check left hooks. She also has decent leg kicks. She has some power, and she can rock fighters on the feet. She is tough and has the ability to walk through shots. She was TKO’d for the first time in her career in her last match & dropped several times by Lucie Pudilova so her durability may be waning. She has two career TKO’s.
Moras is an opportunistic grappler. She has good double legs, but she also lacks the drive on her shots as well. She will attack with singles as well. When she gets on top, she likes to work mainly from guard and just land short G&P and control the round. She can get bulled over and end up on her back off her takedown attempts, but she is comfortable there. She has a nice guard and a very good armbar. She is a savage in the cage & has 0 problem snapping someone’s arm in half. Her takedown defense is very bad though. She can be controlled on her back and other than the armbar, she isn’t very dangerous. If opponents can pass her guard, she lays flat & doesn’t offer much. She was TKO’d with ground & pound in her last fight. Moras does have 3 submissions & has been submitted one time. She needs to be aggressive & go first in this match. She is going to be the bigger fighter in my opinion & needs to try to be offensive with her wrestling, control on top & grind out a win. On the feet, I think she could be successful also if she throws combinations & backs Jojua up.
I think Jojua has a great matchup to get a win here in her UFC debut. Moras is dangerous on the ground but Jojua looks solid there herself and I think she might be the better wrester from what I saw as well. I think she can get a submission of her on as well if she can get the fight to the mat. On the feet, I think Jojua has a big edge though and if she can keep it there then I think can win a striking decision or even get a referee stoppage.
I hate that I feel like I have to target this fight, but I think we do need to in GPPs. Either fighter could get a submission win at any point in this fight and if it is in the 1st round then they are very live for the $50k lineup. I don’t think either will be highly owned, so it won’t take much to be overweight on either or both, but I do want some shots on this fight and more so on the Jojua side. I think she has more ways of scoring highly and I think the UFC wants her to win here. I am going to look to be overweight on her and I don’t even hate her in cash games. I doubt I go that route in cash, but I don’t hate it with this week’s builds. Moras is a GPP only shot for me and I wouldn’t have many lineups with her, but I will take a shot or 2 most likely. If this fight doesn’t end early, then it’s likely off the winning lineup but I think it goes way over looked and I will take some shots because of the early sub potential.
Winner – Liana Jojua via 1st round Submission
Zubaira Tukhugov $9,500 vs Lerone Murphy $6,700
Zubaira Tukhugov
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Years 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -400
Zubaira Tukhugov is making his return after a long suspension. He was suspended for a USADA violation & punching Conor McGregor in the brawl at UFC 229. That incident is probably what he’s most famous for up to this point, but he is a good fighter with a 3-1 UFC record. His one loss was a split decision to top 10 fighter Renato Moicano. Tukhugov hasn’t fought since the Moicano fight which was over 3 years ago. Tukhugov is a good striker. He holds his hands low but is very light on his feet & quick in & out. Having his hands down helps with disguising when his punches are coming. He also leaps into shots very effectively. He has a nasty, leaping left hook. He is very fast with it & closes a lot of distance. He will double up on the left hook. He likes to throw left hook, overhand rights or right uppercut combinations. He will throw some straight punch flurries. He will throw some nice kicks, body kicks, head kicks, and nice spinning kicks. His striking is a little wild & he needs to get this fight to the mat in my opinion. He isn’t a huge knockout threat on the feet but has 6 KO/TKO’s. He’s been finished by strikes one time.
Tukhugov is a strong wrestler & he needs to implement a grappling heavy game plan here. His in & out movement makes it hard to know when he’s going to throw a punch or duck under for a takedown. He has a nice single leg. He also is very good at using his left hook to setup an interesting foot sweep takedown. He has good top control & does enough with ground & pound to keep top position. He isn’t the most aggressive grappler in fights & will stand & trade. In this fight, he needs to avoid that, get in on the legs, take Murphy down & grind out a win. He isn’t a submission threat, but in this fight if he works Murphy on top he may get one. He only has one submission & has been submitted one time.
Lerone Murphy
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: All Powers Gym
From: England
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 315
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +325
Lerone Murphy is going to be making his UFC debut in hostile territory. He will be taking on one of Khabib’s boys in the Middle East. He is undefeated at 8-0, but this will be his first bout outside of England. He also hasn’t fought the toughest or most experienced competition. This is a big step up for him. Murphy has pretty much been a buzz saw so far in his career. He is extremely fast, athletic & dominated most of his opponents. He has very good in & out movement, while switching stances at the same time. He has a good jab, & heavy leg kicks. He has a nasty one-two. His straight-right hand is a lightning bolt & extremely accurate. Murphy has great head movement & is calm in the pocket. He will slip & rip with hooks & overhands, along with body shots. He has nice kicking technique, good round kicks to the body and head. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body & head that have a lot of pop on them. He is explosive & closes a lot of distance with his blitz combinations. His defense is good, but he slows down & his hands drop. He will back up against the cage, shell up & try to slip shots instead of moving. Murphy is dangerous with big power. He has 5 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.
Murphy’s grappling is still largely a question mark. He has good movement & probably will be hard to get in on. From the limited grappling footage I’ve seen of him, it seems he needs work. I don’t like his clinch work. He uses a lot of strength instead of technique. His takedown defense & Jiu-Jitsu also look questionable. In his last fight, he did get a body lock takedown & finished with ground & pound. He doesn’t have any submissions. In this fight, he definitely is going to want to keep it standing. He is very dangerous early & all his finishes are in the first round. In this fight I think that’s his best chance of winning, starting fast, taking advantage of Tukhogov’s layoff & knocking him out early.
Murphy is making his UFC debut here and is the biggest underdog on the card. He looks to have some power and athleticism, but I don’t see how he wins this fight other than a knockout. He does have the power to get that KO and I wouldn’t put -500 on Tukhugov because of it. But, I do think Tukhugov is the more technical striker, more well-rounded striker, and has the edge on the mat. I think he has way more ways to win and I think he does as long as he avoids the big power from Murphy.
I don’t see this fight making many lineups for me. Tukhugov is going to be priced out of most of my lineups at $9.5k because he doesn’t go for enough takedowns and he doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to pay that price off. He is KO or bust for GPPs, so I think he is a better cash game play than anything. For GPPs, I prefer Murphy as a dart thrown because he does have power and could get a KO. Any win from him would do but if he got an early KO then he is a lock for the nuts lineup. I will take a shot or two on him but just chasing that $50k and I wouldn’t be taking that shot personally in higher stakes contests.
Winner – Zubaira Tukhugov via Unanimous Decision
Andrea Lee $8,800 vs Joanne Calderwood $7,400
Andrea Lee
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Karate Mafia MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -225
Andrea KGB Lee continued to impress picking up another victory against Montana De La Rosa in her last match. Lee is 3-0 in her UFC career, and has won 7 fights in a row. Lee is athletic & hits hard. Lee has a good jab & nice leg kicks. She has a good right hook, left hook combination. She has a nice uppercut/shovel hook she will throw to start combinations. She is good at slipping punches & returning with body punches. She will counter with a lot of left hooks & overhand rights. She has solid round & front kicks to the body. She is good at blocking or catching kicks & returning with her own. She keeps the volume high & is always coming forward. Lee is stiff at times on the feet & can throw un setup kicks. She can be countered due to that, but she has a very good chin. She will continue to press forward. Lee has 2 KO/TKO’s & has never been submitted.
Andrea Lee is a beast for the division & extremely strong. She dominates in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head and can just maneuver these girls around. She will land a lot of trip takedowns, and head & arm throws. She is very good at getting a tight waist, circling to the back & getting suplexes. She has great cardio & wears these girls out in the clinch. She has a very heavy top game. She likes to pressure pass to dominant positions. She likes to get the crucifix from side control & is a great back taker. She has excellent control there, even if she is high on the back she can readjust & flattens most opponents out. She will almost use a full nelson position to flatten opponents out. She is good at transiting from the back position to an armbar. She has big G&P from there & good rear naked chokes. She has strong takedown defense. She is very good at bellying down into a single leg when she’s taken down. She will also attack with triangles & armbars in her guard. Lee has 4 submissions & been submitted one time.
Joanne Calderwood
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +185
Joanne Calderwood suffered her first loss at FW in her last match. It was close & a title eliminator fight, so there was no shame in the loss. Calderwood is still 3-1 in the FW division, and if she can defeat Lee she will be right back in the mix for a title shot. Calderwood is a forward pressure fighter. She walks opponents down and does a good job of controlling the center of the cage. She is very good with her lead leg and uses it to control distance like a jab. She has a nice front kick to the body & head, and solid front round kicks to the head. She has nice inside leg kicks and has a very kick heavy style. She has a decent straight-left & left hook. She likes to throw body kick to straight-left combinations. She has nice spinning backfists and spinning back kicks to the body. She will throw nice front elbows, and front knees to the body as well. She throws a high volume of shots out there, and if opponents don’t give her anything to worry about she will get confident & walk them down with combinations. She is a bit slow & doesn’t move her head, so she is very hittable. She enjoys getting hit & tasting blood and hasn’t been finished by KO/TKO yet in her career. She has 5 KO/TKO’s in her career.
Calderwood has been training a lot of grappling since moving to Syndicate and it paid dividends. In her last two matches she has been able to mix it up & use her grappling to help win fights. Calderwood will look for takedowns, usually either single legs or body locks. She has a solid body lock trip, & a good timing on her single leg. She also will level change very well into body lock entries & mixes it up well. Her takedown defense is questionable. She can be taken down when she’s pressuring with well-timed shots. She has shown a nice bottom game, attacking with half guard sweeps, & submissions. She was able to get an armbar in her fight against Kalindra Faria. She will also attack with elbows from bottom trying to cut opponents open. Calderwood has good cardio & can easily go three rounds.
I think this is a close fight and it should be a good one. Both women are solid strikers and they throw with a good amount of volume, so I expect a fun kickboxing fight here. Either could land takedowns, more likely Lee, but I think both will look to stand and I see this fight being closer than the odds. I have gone back and forth on this fight and I might change my pick to Lee after weigh-ins, but right now I’m going to lean with the underdog because I think there is value in her line. I think she can win this fight with her volume and I also think she could be the one mixing in takedowns. I think this goes all 3 rounds and could be a close decision that could go either way.
On DraftKings, JoJo is my preferred play. I would rather target other favorite’s in Lee’s range, so I don’t know if she even makes my lineups, but I think she will be owned enough where I am fine getting away from her and getting leverage elsewhere. I am not against using her and she is in play for all formats, I would rather just use JoJo and I like her for cash as well. I think any win from JoJo is going to get at least 10x here and I don’t think she will be very owned in GPPs. I plan on being overweight to JoJo and she is my favorite cash punt on the card. Not a confident pick to win but I think she is too cheap and live in this fight.
Winner – Joanne Calderwood via Split Decision
Mairbek Taisumov $9,000 vs Diego Ferreira $7,200
Mairbek Taisumov
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 7-1
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -270
Mairbek Taisumov ran his UFC winning streak to 6 in his last fight, but it wasn’t the cleanest performance. He missed weight by 5 lbs & had a closely contested fight even though he was a massive favorite. Taisumov has defeated pretty weak competition during his UFC run. He can’t get a visa to fight in the United States & it’s really stunted his career. Not being extremely active is an issue as well. He has basically fought once a year since 2015. He will be coming off yet another year layoff. Taisumov is an excellent counter striker with great feints & footwork. He will pressure fighters but stays at his range very effectively, sliding just out of the way of shots & countering with his right hand. He doesn’t usually go first with the hands. He walks fighters down, feints, uses leg kicks & occasionally goes high with the kick or throws a front kick to the body. He has heavy round kicks. His pull counter straight & overhand right is nasty. He has a nice left hook. He cuts the cage off very well & forces bad takedown attempts and sloppy striking from his opponents. He is very good at blocking & returning in the pocket. He is extremely accurate & in this fight that’s all he needs to do. He needs to walk Diego into punches, be technical when he brawls and counter with tighter shots. He has huge power & a lot of finishes in the UFC. He has 15 career knockouts. He has been knocked out one time.
Taisumov is obviously going to want to keep it standing here. Taisumov is a very good defensive wrestler. He limp legs out of takedowns very well & has a great sprawl. I don’t think Diego will be able to take him down. Alan Patrick was 0-14 on takedown attempts & Desmond Green was 0-8. Taisumov needs to be careful, maybe let Diego control the center first & get reads. Eventually he should start going forward, drawing out shots from Diego & countering and picking him apart. Diego isn’t the type of guy to back down & if he goes into desperation mode & gets wild if he gets hurt or feels the fight slipping away he very well could get knocked out. The only way I see Taisumov having trouble is if he lets Diego bank time clinching him against the cage & can’t deal with the forward pressure.
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Age: 34
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +230
Carlos Diego Ferreira is looking better than ever lately. He traveled to Russia & dominated a fighter who was also on a 6-fight win streak in Rustam Khabilov. Since returning from his USADA suspension Diego has been on a tear. He has won 4 consecutive fights, and a win here would most likely get him a top 10 opponent. Ferreira is very aggressive & will walk opponents down and throw bombs. He has a nice jab and a good straight-right hand. He has a good left hook, and dangerous uppercuts in the pocket. He lets his hands go in close range and is very aggressive. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination in close range. He will throw a double jab, straight-right hand or double jab, uppercut combo. He has nice leg kicks, and he likes to end combinations with head kicks. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will attack the body with hooks, straight punches, and keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He has dangerous spins in close range and will land hard spinning backfists. He will land hard body kicks, and he does a good job of slipping punches in the pocket and returning with straights. He doesn’t move his head & is very hittable.
Diego Ferreira is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in the sport. In this fight, I think Diego will be trying to use a similar game plan to the one he used vs Poirier. He needs to look to control against the cage & go for takedowns or even pull guard. He was able to get good position in the clinch on Poirier with double underhooks but couldn’t get a takedown or do much with the position. Diego isn’t the best wrestler & that could be an issue in this fight. I think for him to finish he’s definitely going to have to get it to the ground. He showed again how truly elite his BJJ is vs Khabilov almost submitting him multiple times & being extremely creative & dynamic in scrambles. If this fight hits the mat even if Taisumov is in top position, it’s not where he wants to be. Ferreira has great cardio also & will keep pressuring for three rounds.
Taisumov is the much better and more powerful striker here and I think he has the defensive wrestling to keep this fight standing. Ferriera is a solid fighter and he is well-rounded, but I think he needs a submission here to pull off the upset. I don’t see him getting lucky with a KO, so I think he will need to be successful with takedowns and I don’t see that happening. I like Taisumov as long as this fight stays standing, and I think he could get a KO in any round.
It’s pretty much KO or bust for Taisumov to make that $50k lineup but I think he gets it, so I am fine with him in all formats. I won’t make him a core play this week, but I do plan on being overweight if possible. Ferriera is definitely in play as well and any win from him could put him in contention for that $50k lineup because he is so cheap. I think he could end up being popular so if I have him too popular when I do my ownership projections then I might just full fade him. If he is under 15-20% in my projections, then I am fine with throwing him in. If you are using him then I think he is a guy you want to be overweight on.
Winner – Mairbek Taisumov via 2nd round (T)KO
Curtis Blaydes $9,400 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov $6,800
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 28
Height: 6’4
Weight: 262
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 6-2-1
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -500
Curtis Blaydes will try continuing his climb back to the top against Shamil Abdurakhimov. He returned to his winning ways in dominant fashion his last time out defeating Justin Willis & will be looking to put back to back wins together. Curtis Blaydes is a big wrestler who trains out of team Elevation. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and one-twos. He is quick for a heavyweight and will throw some nice body & head kicks. He has a nice left hook, right hook combination. He has a strong overhand right. When he backs opponents to the cage, he will explode with quick punch flurries. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou in their first fight, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock fighters unconscious. His speed, footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 8 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice in his career both to Ngannou. He may be returning too quickly after being knocked out & his chin needs to be monitored here.
Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who are athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is very good at closing the distance safely, and timing when to shoot, and I don’t see him getting hit coming in nearly as much as previous fights. He likes to grind in the clinch as well, where he will get his opponent to the cage, and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top, he is vicious. When he can get to dominant positions, he is extremely heavy and has some of the best G&P in the sport. He will rain down powerful elbows. He likes to control from half guard. He has no problem controlling on top & just winning the round. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career & has never been submitted. Blaydes has tremendous cardio.
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Age: 38
Height: 6’3
Weight: 258
Reach: 76”
Gym: Peresvet FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +400
Shamil Abdurakhimov is getting a big opportunity. This is a big step up in competition & a chance to be vaulted into the title discussion. If Abdurakhimov can beat Curtis Blaydes with 5 wins in his last 6 he may be looking at a top 5 opponent. He is light on his feet and has good movement for someone his size. He has a very patient, and risk averse style. He uses a lot of movement on the outside and doesn’t get in range, and then likes to close the distance with good, straight punches and hooks. He has good accuracy and timing on his straight punches and can catch fighters closing the distance with it. He does a good job of throwing the straight-right and then coming over the top with a right hook. He has a good, straight punch to the body and a great check right hook. He has a good spinning back kick and has some decent kicks, but he doesn’t throw them often. He does have good power with 8 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Abdurakhimov is a solid grappler as well. When opponents close the distance with a shot, he does a good job of ducking under and getting double underhooks. He has good body lock takedowns, and good double legs. He has good control on top and will be busy enough to keep it on bottom. He has good cardio and does a good job of slowing down the fight if he gets hurt. Off his back he is not good. He has been finished twice by ground & pound in the UFC and looks very uncomfortable off his back. If Blaydes gets on top of him I could see the fight being over shortly after.
I think Blaydes is the better fighter everywhere in this spot and I think the only way he loses would be a KO because these are Heavyweights with power. Blaydes should be the quicker, more technical striker though and I think he has more KO power as well. Blaydes is also the better wrestler and I do expect him to look for takedowns early and often and I see him getting a ground and pound finish at some point.
Blaydes is going to be a top 3 play on the slate for me. I like him in all formats and I think he has the 2nd highest ceiling on the card. I will likely have him or Khabib in almost every lineup I create, but if I have to choose between the two I would have to side with Khabib. Shamil is a GPP only type play and he could be on that $50k lineup if he gets an early KO which is always possible with these HWs. He will be very low owned and Blaydes will be chalky. I will have at least 1 Shamil lineup in case he gets it, but I plan on having more than 30% Blaydes if I can afford it and I like him in cash as well.
Winner – Curtis Blaydes via 1st round (T)KO
Islam Makhachev $9,200 vs Davi Ramos $7,000
Islam Makhachev
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -345
Khabib’s main man Islam Makhachev is getting the chance to compete here on the same card. Makhachev has won 5 consecutive fights. He is 6-1 in the UFC. He likes to walk fighters into his punches. He has a nasty one-two, and big power in his left hand. Islam has very heavy head kicks and front kicks to the head. He will throw nice question mark kicks. He knocked out Tibau with a nasty straight-left hand. He will throw a right hook, straight-left, and nice overhand left leads. He has solid defense & good footwork. He doesn’t get hit much & has largely dominated all his UFC fights. His one career loss, he was caught with a bomb, and knocked out. Islam isn’t a huge knockout artist with only 3 career finishes via strikes.
Makhachev is a brilliant grappler. He will back opponents to the cage with forward pressure, clinch up against the cage & has excellent control, body locks & trips. He has excellent pressure passing ability. He will turn the legs & move directly into mount. He will also get to half guard, trap the far wrist & rain down shots until opponents give their backs. He has incredible top control & when he takes an opponent down they are usually not getting back up. On top, he is always looking to improve position, while landing ground & pound. When he can get to dominant positions like the mount or the back & posture, the fight is usually over & he’s laying down heavy ground & pound. He can wrestle all day & will continue to get takedowns for 3 consecutive rounds if he needs to. Islam has 7 career submissions. He has nice armbars from mount & good rear naked chokes. He has never been submitted.
Davi Ramos
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira Dubai
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +285
Davi Ramos is 4-0 as a LW. He has 3 finishes & won his first UFC decision in his last fight. His one loss in the UFC was at 170 lbs. This is a step up for him & if he wins this fight he will probably get a top 10 matchup. Ramos has stated that he wants to fight Khabib, so this is a very close proximity. Ramos is a big, strong, explosive fighter with knockout power. He is a short and compact fighter, who can close the distance, and land left and right hooks. He likes to throw the overhand right a lot and will try to set it up behind a jab or left straight. He has big power in his kicks, thudding body kicks, and powerful leg kicks. He should be much more active with his kicking game. He likes to hang back and counter his opponents. He will not use much footwork, fakes or feints, but rather just slowly walk opponents down and stay in their face to try to get them to throw so he can counter with a flurry or overhand right. When opponents are pressuring him, he has no problem letting his shots go. He will throw heavy hooks & overhands in combination. He has decent head movement. He has a nice and powerful jab when he gets fighters moving backwards, as well as a nice step-in knee. He has a nice uppercut, left hook combo. He throws an explosive flying knee, and he can finish the fight with it. He is improving every fight with his stand up. He tends to wing a lot of shots & just throws bombs when pressured. Against Chris Gruetzmaker he was hit with some solid shots & tired a bit. Ramos only has 1 KO/TKO, but he definitely packs enough power to finish a fight. He has a strong chin and has never been finished.
Ramos is a multi-time ADCC Submission Wrestling gold medalist. He is a black belt and has some of the best BJJ in the sport. Ramos is not a bad wrestler and does a good job of mixing up his takedowns. He does a good job of catching kicks and countering with punches or getting the takedown. He has decent double leg shot, but it can be telegraphed at times. He has nice body lock trip takedowns and has a lot of strength in the clinch position. He lands nice knees there and can control opponents and bank time. In top position, he is very heavy and has great pressure passes to side control or mount. He will search for the arm triangle from half guard. He is looking for submissions and keeping position over ground and pound, but when he postures up he can land heavy shots. If he gets on his opponents back it will be very hard for them to survive. Ramos has a good guillotine too & is just overall very dangerous with submissions. He has 7 submissions & never been finished.
This is a very tricky matchup stylistically. Makhachev is a dominant wrestler and Ramos is a dangerous submission artist. I hope we see this fight play out on the mat for the clash of styles, but this could also turn out to be a slow paced striking match if the grappling cancels out. I think Makhachev will be the pressure fighter, but Ramos strikes at a higher pace on average and if this plays out on the feet he could win on volume alone. I do think Makhachev is the rightful favorite, but this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line for me.
I think both sides are in play for this fight and it could be an awesome grappling match with a lot of points. Or, it could be a low scoring striking match if the grappling cancels out. I am not sure what to expect from this fight, but Ramos is going to be my preferred play if I had to choose. I would rather play Khabib and Blaydes up in this range so that will limit the amount of Makhachev I can afford. I don’t love a lot of underdogs this week and Ramos scores high when he wins. He does have paths to victory too, so I do want shares of him. I think this is a GPP fight only for both sides though and I don’t think it will be one I get much exposure to.
Winner – Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision
Edson Barboza $8,500 vs Paul Felder $7,700
Edson Barboza
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-7
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Edson Barboza is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA history. He has knockouts with punches, kicks, spinning kicks, flying knees, he can knock anyone out with anything. Unfortunately, he has taken a ton of damage recently & was knocked out 6 months ago. He needs a win badly here in this rematch. Barboza is excellent at controlling distance & that will be the tale of this fight. If he can keep it at his range, he will win the fight. He has a very nice jab, and brutal low leg kicks. I anticipate he will use his leg kicks much more in this match to keep distance than his jab. He was able to destroy both the legs & body of Felder in their first fight. Barboza has a nice one-two, and a nasty left hook. He will throw a devastating counter left hook to the body or head & angle off. Barboza has nasty switch kicks to the body as well, with no telegraph. He probably has the fastest kicks in MMA history. He will throw hard, round kicks to the body & head. He has devastating spinning back kicks to the body & head. We have all seen his spinning heel kick knockout of Terry Etim. He is very good at catching kicks & returning with low kicks. He is always looking to setup one of these one shot finishes, and fighters cannot enter the same way against Barboza. He has nasty flying knees. The way to beat Barboza on the feet is through pressure. He is much better at using his boxing to counter, but it’s still the way to beat him. He tends to make mistakes when he gets pressured heavy & has broken in fights before. He will also become much more defensive & not throw as much. He has shown extreme toughness lately and survived brutal beatings. He was able to prove how dangerous he is even after being dominated for 3.5 rounds, and almost finishing Kevin Lee in round 4 with a spinning heel kick. Barboza has 12 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes three times. He does seem to have a questionable chin if fighters can land clean on him.
Barboza moving to ATT after his fights with Khabib, and Lee IMO has a lot to do with addressing his wrestling. He was dominated & could not stop the takedown or get-up off his back in those matches. Barboza actually has shown solid takedown defense outside of elite level takedown artists. In this fight with Felder, I doubt he will have to defend any shots. He has very good hips & does a good job of staying up against the cage. The only two fighters who have dominated him on the mat in the UFC are Kevin Lee & Khabib. Barboza is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but I have never seen him attempt a submission. He will go for double legs at times & sometimes when he breaks, he will shoot bad shots. He attempted takedowns against Kevin Lee & Khabib after being dominated in the grappling and had an ill-advised shot into a darce against Tony Ferguson. He has one submission & has been submitted twice himself. Barboza does tend to get tired & if this fight becomes a dog fight, it could be bad for him.
Paul Felder
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Paul Felder has been showing the best form of his career since going to Roufousport. On the feet he is technical. He has a nice jab, and left hook. He will throw nice straight-right hands. He has a nice one-two. Felder likes to throw a right hand to the body to a left hook combination. He will throw hard roundhouse kicks to the body and step-in knees. He will throw a knee to the body to a straight-left combination. He will load up and throw brutal leg kicks. He has great spinning techniques with spinning backfists and spinning heel kicks. He will throw spinning back elbows, and front elbows. He definitely has power, but I wouldn’t call him a knockout artist. He does have 10 career KO/TKO’s. He is extremely tough & durable. He has never been finished by strikes. His one TKO loss was a doctor’s stoppage.
Felder is a dangerous grappler. He has shown he is good in all facets, his clinch game is strong, and he has great knees to the body and the head and some of the best elbows in the business. He dropped Stevie Ray with a massive knee in the clinch, and then followed up with devastating elbows to finish him. He finished Oliveira with the same nasty G&P elbows after surviving a lot of deep submission attempts. He has some of the nastiest ground and pound along with Jeremy Stephens, in a long time. Felder is going to have to get inside & I feel the clinch he will be dangerous with elbows for Barboza. He has good takedown defense & get-up game. He attacked with an armbar when he was taken down by Perry. He can get beat up in the clinch with elbows himself & was finished via cut against Trinaldo due to that. Felder needs to close the distance & throw more than one. He isn’t a submission threat but using the clinch & takedowns to create striking openings may be a smart game plan.
This is a rematch from 2015 when Barboza won a unanimous decision and handed Felder his first loss. I do think Felder has improved since then and Barboza has taken a lot of damage in fights since then, so Felder could be live for a KO upset here. However, if this goes all 3 rounds I think this fight will be very similar to their last fight and I have to favor Barboza. He has the best kicks in the sport and I don’t see Felder making this a phonebooth type fight, so I think the kicks get the job done and possibly by finish.
I do want exposure to both sides of this fight but not a lot. Both sides could score high in a knockout win, but their last fight was a FOTN performance and Barboza only scored 62 points in that win. Felder only had 24 in a loss. That says that we shouldn’t target this fight and it could be highly owned with it being the co-main. So, I am not against a full fade if that is what you want to do. I just am not sure this one goes all 3 rounds and I do want some exposure to both sides unless I think they are both just too highly owned for a couple lineups to even matter. If that is the case I will fade. I don’t hate either side in cash if you have a strong lean, but I will probably look elsewhere myself. I do prefer Barboza but if I was making 10 lineups I might have 1-2 Barboza and 1 Felder.
Winner – Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Khabib Nurmagomedov $9,300 vs Dustin Poirier $6,900
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 11-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W27
Betting Odds: -450
Khabib is an underrated striker. He has a solid jab, and tricky boxing. He does a good job of coming into fights with a great game plan and executing it to a tee. Against a very dangerous kicker like Edson Barboza, he moved forward with looping hooks and uppercuts making Barboza fight on the back foot and taking away his kicks. Against a crafty southpaw with good lateral movement like Michael Johnson & Conor McGregor, he was much more cautious closing the distance. He did a lot of circling away & moving until he found a well-timed shot. He does a good job of faking a level change and coming back up top to the head with a nice shovel hook. He has a good one-two, and he likes to close the distance with flying knees, but all of it at the end of the day is to close the distance and get a hold of his opponent. His chin has looked granite, and he has never been dropped in his entire MMA career.
Khabib is an astonishing grappler. He is a master of sport in sambo and a judo black belt and has the widest array of takedown attempts in the sport. He has great double legs and can take his opponents for a ride with big slams. He will literally jump on a single leg and grab a hold of the leg like it’s life or death until he drags his opponent to the mat. Khabib doesn’t mind taking ugly shots, because all he needs to do is get a hold of you and he is like a magnet. He sticks to his opponents like glue, and even if he doesn’t get the initial takedown, he will lock his hands together in the clinch and chain wrestle until he gets what he wants. He has great body locks, inside trips and is relentless switching back and forth until he gets the takedown. He also has great suplexes. When he gets on top, he has unbelievable top control. He does a great job of grape vining the legs, and slowly working his way to mount. He also loves to get two on one wrist control and beat his opponent up while they have their arm trapped. He is a phenomenal guard passer and will move right into the mounted crucifix where he is devastating with ground & pound shots. His ground & pound is brutal and relentless with huge power really draining the energy from his opponents. Usually he only needs one takedown to dramatically weaken the fighter he is going up against. He has a nasty kimura, and actually has good triangles and sweeps off his back. Khabib has great cardio and puts a pace and pressure on fighters that breaks them. Khabib needs to not engage much & just move. He needs to circle away, make Dustin come to him, and when he plants his feet or gets off balance, get the takedown, especially early on. Khabib actually has very fast hands, one-two jabs, but he isn’t someone to put combos together. So, once he gets his takedowns going if he can get them early on, then he will be able to maybe start landing jab, overhand right or one-twos. Dustin is a fighter who plants his feet a lot & when he gets opponents on the back foot, he comes forward in a straight-line throwing combos. He can’t do that in this fight because I feel like Khabib will easily take him down if he does. Khabib has that nasty single leg & if his opponent sits down on a punch & plants his feet, he will be in on the leg & they’ll more often than not be on their back.
Dustin Poirier
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: ATT
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 17-4-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought:
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +360
Poirier is a powerful, counter, southpaw striker. He has an excellent jab both to the body & head, and hard one-twos. He will throw a nasty straight-left, right hook combination. His left hook is extremely powerful & he can knock opponents out cold with it. He will switch stances & throw it as opponents are looking to exit & hits them when they don’t see it coming. Poirier has great low kicks. He has a very nice left round house kick & front kick to the body. He has adapted a style of using long range shots such as jabs & straight punches to pick at opponents, and then counter when they become aggressive. His counter left hook is nasty. His ability to counter moving backwards will be crucial in this fight. If he can’t land shots that back Khabib off, it could be a long night on the feet for him. Poirier hits extremely hard especially at 155 & has more one punch power. He’s has 12 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Poirier is going to need to have the grappling performance of his life here. He is very good in the clinch. He will throw a straight-left hand into the single collar clinch & then throw nice uppercuts and short punches. He is excellent at getting clinch takedowns. He has very good trips & foot sweeps. He will also look for double legs. He does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage until he can take them down. He has very good takedown defense. He will attack with front chokes, specifically darces to defend takedown attempts, and is very good at them. Poirier is strong on top. He has good control & will also look to just land shots from opponent’s guards if he can. He postured up & battered Anthony Pettis with punches & elbows before finishing him on the ground. Pettis has an elite guard & couldn’t submit Poirier. He was able to pass the legs when Pettis went for subs & took the back several times. He will get mount & look for armbars. His takedown defense is definitely going to be tested here. He has fought many wrestlers in his career. I guess you can say Eddie Alvarez is a wrestler, but he likes to strike. Alvarez was able to get in some dominant grappling positions in their second fight. Other than that, the last pure wrestler he’s fought is probably Jonathon Brookins. He needs to be able to stuff the takedowns or get right back up when taken down to tire Khabib out. Poirier has 6 submissions & has only been submitted one time. Poirier, in this fight, needs to use more lateral footwork work off the jab, keep it in Khabib’s face & try to pull counter or walk Khabib into a knee or kick as he shoots. I also feel like Poirier should maybe even shoot at the legs himself or go for the clinch against the cage like Al Iaquinta did to give Khabib something else to think about. If Khabib is only worried about striking, he can just move, avoid the fight & wait on his moment. If DP shoots on his legs, especially if he can take him down, I could see it throwing him off. Dustin is going to want to walk Khabib down. He can’t let Khabib back him up. He needs to control the center of the cage, try to force Khabib to get frustrated coming forward & make mistakes. He needs to use his jabs to back Khabib up, get him flustered & then land some counters & take him out. Khabib has struggled the most with southpaws I guess if you want to say that. He was hit a few times clean by Conor & Michael Johnson.
This is to unify Khabib’s championship belt vs Poirier’s interim championship belt that he won after Khabib was suspended due to the post fight brawl with Conor McGregor and his team. Khabib is the most dominant fighter in the sport. His pressure style and wrestling/grappling is really unmatched, and he would be a big betting favorite against anybody in the division. Poirier will have the edge on the feet here, but he is going to need a KO to get a win. Khabib’s wrestling is too good to not win at least 3 of the 5 rounds and I highly doubt he wants to go out there and have a striking battle with Poirier. I have to pick Khabib to get the win with his usual dominant performance, but I do think Poirier hangs in there all 25-minutes. The betting line is a little too high on Khabib here for me though, so I would say if you want to bet him then parlay him with somebody else you feel very confident in. I would rather take the dog here if I was going to bet it, but I think it is KO or bust for Poirier so if I do bet him I will take a 1u shot on the TKO prop when it comes out to get a better line.
Khabib is the best play on the slate for DraftKings. He is a lock for over 100 when he wins, and he has the highest ceiling on the card. He will also be over 50% owned by the field so we will need to go over 60% if we want any leverage. I am planning on doing that, but this is an all-in fight for me. If Dustin wins he will easily pay off his value and I want shots at that. I think Khabib could be in for a rough weight cut and I am a huge Dustin fan, so I would love if he could come through with a KO. I just think Khabib is too good and I will likely go 70/30 on this fight with my lineups. I will be stacking this in cash as well and that is likely where I will start my lineup, followed by JoJo as a punt. Then I will go from there. You could fade this fight to be contrarian if you want in GPP’s, but I have a hard time seeing the winner not on the optimal lineup and Khabib is DraftKings gold in general.
Winner – Khabib Nurmagovmedov via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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