Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

Painting the Black with Mdell: MLB Early Slate Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and Draftkings

Pitching Breakdown

Saturday, April 21st, 2018

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!

NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!

ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!

Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!

Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com

K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.

An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite

BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.

Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.

wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.

 

 

Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)

 

Early Slate (everything BEFORE main)

Danny Duffy (8.5k FD) (8.2k DK) @ DET: This play is mainly because of how bad the Tigers have been to LHP lately. They have the 2nd lowest wRC+ at 42, have a 28.6% K rate and just .109 ISO. They have not been good against LHP. One thing that concerns me a bit is this is his first start on just 3 days rest in a long time. Each start he has gotten better and better and what a time to face the Tigers when they are near the bottom in just about all advanced categories. He’s had much better luck on the road this year with just a .200 wOBA allowed and 2.31 ERA, but just a .167 BABIP, hence the word luck before. The good thing for him is he has been a lot better against RHH too which DET will probably have 7+ in their lineup. He has a 30% K rate to RHH compared to just 10% to LHH, he’s also getting 15% LESS Hard% to righties. This is a pure GPP play because Duffy is not that safe, but he has upside in this matchup.

Carlos Martinez (9.8k FD) (11.2k DK) vs CIN: A starter vs the team with the worst run differential in the league, yes, please. Lets put into account that the Reds are throwing good ole Homer Bailey this afternoon. The Reds have a .237 average against C-Mart with a 22.9% K rate, but to RHP they have just a 68 wRC+ and a 24.8% K rate. He’s getting 56% GB this year and a 27.5% K rate as well. Martinez can be dominant against any offense, it just depends if he is throwing strikes out not, which he struggles with sometimes evident to his 12.8% walk rate. The Reds usually toss out equal lefties and righties and Martinez has done decent against both, but slightly better against lefties. He’s struggled at home so far this year but will turn it around. His upside is extremely high in this matchup.

Aaron Nola (8.4k FD) (10.6k DK) vs PIT: It finally looks like PIT is starting to cool off a little and Arrieta just DOMINATED them the other night. They still are about average in K% and wRC+ and have an OK ISO, but Nola has been very good this year. He’s not getting the K’s that he’s used to getting, but I expect that number to start to rise from the 16% it’s at now. He’s getting his highest O-Swing%, highest Z-Swing%, and more first strikes, but he’s getting less SwStr% and they are hitting more pitches in the zone than the past. I believe his numbers will start to normalize as his pitches are still at or around the same velo as they have been over his career. The Pirates will be pretty split neutral here and Nola has shown more success and K’s to RHH than lefties. He’s not striking out really any lefties, and they are giving him a lot of issues so far. He has a 27.8% K rate to righties and just 8.8% to lefties. He’s not getting his hard AT ALL with both sides getting 20% or less hard contact. I think he can do fine on this early slate here with the limited options.

Mike Clevinger (8.9k FD) (10.1k DK) @ BAL: Just like I said about Bauer last night. Baltimore has the 2nd highest K rate at 27.5% to RHP and about average ISO and wRC+. They swing and miss A LOT and Clevinger gets a decent 9.3% SwStr%. He’s only giving up about 25% Hard% this year with his highest GB% of his MLB career (47.9%). His struggles come, just like Martinez when he cannot find the strike zone. He’s been a little better this year with his walks and has a 20.6% K rate which is lower than his usually K%. He was great in his first start on the road this year and will look to keep it going here. He’s got pretty similar numbers to both sides of the plate while striking out a bit more LHH but also walking a lot more of them. If you are playing on a slate with Clevinger, he’s a great GPP option and fringe cash play.

Blake Snell (8.1k FD) vs MIN: DK does not have him listed on the early slates, but have him on the single game. He has been simply amazing in his last two starts after two sub-par starts (against NYY and BOS though). He has come back and pitched well against CWS and TEX. He gets a MIN team who everyone thinks CRUSHES LHP, which they CAN, but this year they have not shown it. They have the 2nd highest K% to LHP at 29.9% and just a .092 ISO. Looking at their average and OBP, they are taking walks (11.5%) and getting some soft hits, as they have the LOWEST Hard% in the MLB to LHP (25.5%). Snell has a 34.6% K rate to LHH and a 28.8% to RHH and the Twins will most likely have just 3 lefties in their lineup. Snell has shown that he has great upside. Against the Twins, I think he’s a great GPP play.

 

My Personal Rankings

  1. Carlos Martinez (all formats)
  2. Aaron Nola (all formats given the options)
  3. Mike Clevinger (all formats)
  4. Blake Snell (lean GPP)
  5. Danny Duffy (GPP)