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Weather and How it Influences MLB DFS

Weather and How it Influences MLB DFS by DFSWeather

There are a handful of ways that weather can influence a Major League Baseball or MLB DFS game. I feel like I could write a 100-page book on the subject but I will try to keep it brief. In order of greatest importance here’s how MLB weather affects fantasy games.

1) Cancellations. Unlike any other DFS sport, MLB is the only one where you have to worry about a game not being played on that day due to the weather (it is an extremely rare event for an NFL game to be cancelled due to the weather and I am not counting the NBA’s New Orleans Pelican’s leaky roof). A cancellation in MLB can be overcome if you have 1 or 2 batters from that game but you are lowering your odds of a winning lineup. 3 or more, or if you have a starting pitcher from a canceled game, then you are basically throwing your money into the fireplace. My team and I (more on this later), are going to be the most valuable in giving it our best-educated guess as to whether or not a game will be played at 6:55 PM (everyone knows not to use players from a game that was canceled at 3 PM).

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2) Delays, especially long-lasting and early in the game. If you paid $12,000 for Chris Sale to be your starting pitcher, you are counting on a good game from him, with a goal of north of 40 fantasy points. If the game at Fenway is interrupted by a heavy shower in the 2nd inning and the game is halted for an hour and 10 minutes, the heavy monetary investment the Sox have in Sale will likely keep him from coming back into the game after he has cooled down. I should note, delays are extremely difficult to predict as to when and if they will occur.

3) Wind. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist here to know that the stronger the wind is blowing out to a particular part of the outfield, the better it is for the hitters. And vice versa if the wind is blowing in. However, there are parks where wind plays a bigger factor than others. Wrigley Field (home of the Cubs) and Fenway (home of the Red Sox) seem to be most influenced by the wind. That is because they are the last guard of the old ballparks which have a more open design that allows the wind into the field of play better and combines with the orientation and geography of the ballparks as well (more of that in #4 below).

4. Air density. The most obvious and extreme example of air density is Coors Field in Denver where the Rockies play. Being nearly a mile high in elevation, the air is much less dense and a ball in flight (whether it be batted or thrown), encounters fewer air molecules in its flight path and thus less energy of the thrown or batted ball is used shoving air molecules aside and more energy is used for the velocity of the ball and thus it can travel further. A batted ball will get up to a 15% increase in distance as compared to comparable conditions at sea level. Also, a thrown ball will travel that much faster. Also, a curveball will not break as sharp because it has less “grip” on the air it is traveling through. Though not nearly as dramatic, both Chase Field in Phoenix and Sun Trust Field in Atlanta are located greater than 500 feet above sea level and receive similar, though dramatically smaller, influences.

Getting back to Wrigley and Fenway, and other parks as well, air density can change on a small, but not insignificant basis, on a day to day basis. I won’t get into the science (you can ask me about it if you want to), the warmer and more moisture air contains (measured by a meteorological variable called the dewpoint) the lower the air density is and the further a batted ball will travel. When this is combined with the wind, it can be a big factor in how an offense performs. Let’s get back to Wrigley and Fenway. Both parks are found at a northerly latitude where both early and late in the season the temperatures can be quite chilly. The park is oriented in a way where chilly northeast winds (ironically those winds blow off bodies of water, Lake Michigan and the Atlantic and help keep the temperatures down too) are blowing in from right field. The combination of low temperatures and a wind blowing in makes things very hard on batters. In the summer, if the temperature is 85 and dewpoints rise to an uncomfortable level of near 70 degrees, the winds will be out of the south or southwest. These wind blows out to left and center, causing the ball to carry well and help offenses dramatically.

Though these parks are the extreme in my opinion, other parks see similar shifts in temperature and dewpoint depending on the day and season. Minnesota, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, both New York teams, the White Sox, Baltimore and other locales can see changes in air density that will influence the game.

5) Other factors. Doing DFS forecasting for 3 years, you learn some things when it comes to the weather and how it influences MLB. Stephen Strasburg doesn’t fare well when the temperature is greater than 80 degrees and it is humid, David Price doesn’t pitch well in the cold. A marine layer will sometimes move into Angel home games and the ball will stop carrying as good as it did earlier in the game. Stadiums with retractable roofs will generally play better for the offense when the roof is open.

But there are season by season factors to watch as well. How will the humidor in Arizona affect games? Will Sun Trust’s 2nd year be similar to the 1st (a general boost for left-handed hitters)? Why do some ballparks seem great for hitters one year and not so much another (Camden and Fenway standout). Why generally are the more runs scored during night games (as compared to day games) in San Diego?

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About me and my team. I am lucky enough to be offered the chance to work with interns from Penn State this season. This will keep our workload more manageable, as well as add some new bells and whistles. Across the different platforms I use (more on this below), we will be able to manage our time better as we get closer to lock time.

I have always had a love for the weather. Growing up in central Massachusetts, snow and ice storms are one of my earliest and fondest memories. After graduating high school in 1992, I took my love of the weather to the University of Massachusetts at Lowell where I got my bachelor’s of science degree in meteorology in 1996. From there, I received my teaching certificate in the state of Massachusetts and taught high school math and science until 2007. At that time, I was offered my dream job as a meteorologist at AccuWeather in State College, PA. I focused on astronomy and long-range at AccuWeather until I left in 2015 to focus on other goals. One of those goals of mine, combining the weather with my love of sports, was realized in 2015 when I worked with Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer at Daily Roto. After 1 baseball and football season with them, I partnered with Daily Fantasy Cafe in 2016. By this baseball season, I knew I wanted to do something that no one else was doing, so I left my partnership with DFC in May of this past year. I want to be the best (well I feel I am already that) and most relied upon meteorologist in both the DFS and Vegas world. I have proven my worth over the past 3 MLB and 2 NFL seasons as 1 of the 2 best known DFS meteorologists in the world. I want to be able to give you an advantage, either through DFS or via Vegas or both, over your competition.

You can find me in the Army’s Slack Chat room, on Twitter (@dfsmlbweather) and on my own page (dfsmlbweather.com). We will also be on Facebook Live, Periscope and YouTube under dfsmlbweather where we will provide a video rundown of the weather for the MLB day.

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