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PG:
* ALL FORMATS *
Kemba Walker (CHA @ DAL) – DK: $8500* / FD: $9100
You might not need Kemba with all the heavy artillery on tonight’s slate but he’s still in a fantastic spot vs DAL, who have been brutal defending the PG position all season.
Lonzo Ball (LAL @ MEM) – DK: $8100 / FD: $7600*
Isaiah Thomas is out, so that’ll assure Ball of a massive workload. Since the All-Star break, Ball has posted 36+ FPs in all but four games.
* BETTER VALUE ON DRAFTKINGS *
Dennis Smith Jr (DAL vs CHA) – DK: $5900* / FD: $7100
According to our aDvP numbers, PGs vs CHA are not a great matchup… at all. However, this price on DK might be too good to pass up. In fact, DSJ seemed to be more productive since Wesley Matthews had that season-ending injury, and 30s were the norm in that scenario.
Ish Smith (DET vs CHI) – DK: $4900* / FD: $5600
Three-straight games with 30+ FPs and mins. Reggie Jackson is still on a 15-20 minutes limit, so that’ll leave Ish enough time to do this thing against a Bulls team on the back-end of a B2B.
* GPP *
Ian Clark (NO @ HOU) – DK: $3800* / FD: $4200
Clark sees the biggest boost in minutes when Rondo is off the floor, and he’ll likely be matched up with Eric Gordon for most of this game. Cha ching!
Elfrid Payton (PHX @ ORL) – DK: $5800 / FD: $5700
Saying it up front… I AM NOT PLAYING ELF!!!!! There it is. However, I’d be a damn fool to ignore the fact that he’s going back to Orlando on a massive revenge mission, a situation we have seen many players thrive in. Elf has been terrible over the last few games, but I’m not going to be surprised if he does well with an injection of motivation… I’m just betting against it.
DJ Augustin (ORL vs PHX) – DK: $5300 / FD: $5300
Elf won’t be a sneaky play, but the guy matched up him certainly will be. Augustin had done 5x-value or better in the three games prior to last, and now he faces a PHX team that has allowed the 3rd-most FPs to PGs over the last month.
Cameron Payne (CHI @ DET) – DK: $5500 / FD: $5200
I don’t love the Bulls outlook as a team tonight, but Payne has done 5x-value or better in five-straight games. DET is allowing the 5th-most FPs to PGs over the last month.
SG:
* ALL FORMATS *
James Harden (HOU vs NO) – DK: $11,700 / FD: $11,800
There’s way too much anti-Harden talk when he’s in such a great spot… and I know what it is. Both DK and FD have injury tags next to Harden’s name- people see that and immediately think the worst (he’s fine, probable to play tonight), especially coming off one of his most unproductive games of the season. Our SIM model has Harden as the highest-projected player on the slate, about 13 points higher on each site than the 2nd-highest player, AD. I have no worries about Harden tonight in terms of another bad game or fewer minutes because of a minor ankle sprain, all is well in H-Town.
Jrue Holiday (NO @ HOU) – DK: $8200 / FD: $8500
Great spot for Holiday who will get full control of the Pelicans backcourt with Rajon Rondo out. Also, Nikola Mirotic is questionable, when he’s off the court Holiday has a team-high 33.1% usage rate… 2nd-highest (29.3%) when Mirotic is on the floor. HOU’s best two defenders (CP3, Mbah a Moute) will both miss tonight’s game and that’s another added incentive.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL @ MEM) – DK: $6500 / FD: $6300
KCP is projected to play 42 minutes now that Isaiah Thomas has been ruled out. Not only does KCP get all these minutes, but he gets them against a MEM team that just got beat by 61 points in their last game. MEM’s best perimeter defender (Tyreke Evans) is also out… as if there was anything more to like about this whole situation.
* BETTER VALUE ON DRAFTKINGS *
Wayne Selden Jr (MEM vs LAL) – DK: $3700* / FD: $4300
At least 24 DKP in each of the last four games. Tyreke Evans is out and Andrew Harrison is questionable… both situations are good news for Selden, but Harrison being inactive would certainly be ideal.
* BETTER VALUE ON FANDUEL *
Eric Gordon (HOU vs NO) – DK: $6800 / FD: $5200*
Gordon on FanDuel is as easy as it gets at $5200… thank you, come again. He’s not a necessity on DraftKings at $6800, but I do think it could be a very sneaky move for GPPs as people will likely want to split their exposure. Don’t forget, you get the 3pt bonus which is Gordon’s preferred method of dagger.
* GPP *
Troy Daniels (PHX @ ORL) – DK: $3900 / FD: $3700
Booker/Warren both out = boost in minutes.
Luke Kennard (DET vs CHI) – DK: $4300 / FD: $4600
Playing well of late, could get extra run if the Pistons go up big.
SF:
* ALL FORMATS *
Harrison Barnes (DAL vs CHA) – DK: $6200 / FD: $6200
At least 27 FPs on both sites in eight of his last 10 games, 30+ in five of those. SFs vs CHA have oddly been a thing all year, and Barnes gets an even more optimistic outlook if Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t suit up.
Trevor Ariza (HOU vs NO) – DK: $4700 / FD: $5000
I’ve always liked Ariza as an option whenever CP3 is out, but now that Mbah a Moute is out, he’ll have no choice but to play nearly 40 minutes in what will likely turn into a track meet. Ariza’s length and size is his biggest friend tonight.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA @ DAL) – DK: $6300 / FD: $6300
Steady production near 5x value in each of the three games since Nicolas Batum went down.
* BETTER VALUE ON FANDUEL *
Mario Hezonja (ORL vs PHX) – DK: $4900 / FD: $4100*
Hezonja’s recent struggles could be linked to late-season fatigue, but this is a ridiculous price for him on FD with both Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac ruled out for tonight’s games. The Suns have helped people get back on the good foot before, and damnit, they will certainly do it again!
Denzel Valentine (CHI @ DET) – DK: $6100 / FD: $5600*
Homecoming of sorts, he did attend college at Michigan St.
* GPP *
PJ Tucker (HOU vs NO) – DK: $3900 / FD: $4100
Joe Johnson (HOU vs NO) – DK: $3800 / FD: $3900
Gerald Green (HOU vs NO) – DK: $3600 / FD: $3700
I personally like Green’s upside the most out of this bunch, but all of them will have increased roles with CP3 and Mbah a Moute out.
* GPP FADE? *
Josh Jackson (PHX @ ORL) – DK: $7000 / FD: $6800
There opportunity to post big numbers is there against the Magic, but I do wonder if Elf tries to do too much in this game, limiting J-Jackson’s production in the process. J-Jackson should be highly-owned in all formats, so I don’t mind using him in cash/H2H, but the thought of fading him in GPPs is worth a shot… after all, a rookie on the back-end of a B2B in late-March isn’t exactly the ideal spot.
PF:
* ALL FORMATS *
Anthony Davis (NO @ HOU) – DK: $11,500 / FD: $12,700
Quite frankly, I have no idea what the Rockets will do to stop AD. In the past, he hasn’t crushed him to the point of 80-90 FPs, but tonight’s situation is much different. An overlooked boost to AD is the absence of Rajon Rondo… look for AD to get a few extra assists and rebounds because of that.
Julius Randle (LAL @ MEM) – DK: $8300 / FD: $7900*
Kyle Kuzma (LAL @ MEM) – DK: $6600 / FD: $6200*
Another simple explanation, but both guys will have huge workloads because of the Lakers situation. Kuzma is especially appealing here since SFs have crushed MEM recently.
* GPP *
Aaron Gordon (ORL vs PHX) – DK: $7500* / FD: $7800
PHX: Allowed the most FPs to PFs over the last month. Gordon did drop 40 FPs (rounded up on both sites) vs PHX in the earlier meeting this season.
Bobby Portis (CHI @ DET) – DK: $6500* / FD: $6800
Lauri Markkanen’s absence should get Portis extra minutes. Prior to these last two games (just below 30 FPs), Portis had posted at least 33 FPs in six of the previous seven.
Marquese Chriss (PHX @ ORL) – DK: $3600 / FD: $3800
I’m fully aware of how crazy this is, but Chriss did play very well last night and he is projected to play 26 minutes against the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Not much is needed to hit 5x-value at this price.
C:
* ALL FORMATS *
Dwight Howard (CHA @ DAL) – DK: $8000* / FD: $8400
I love the idea of Howard coming back fresh off a suspension. It appears like the Hornets aren’t totally giving up on the season yet, so Howard should be able to clean up on the glass against the NBA’s 2nd-worst rebounding team.
Clint Capela (HOU vs NO) – DK: $6700* / FD: $7200
The Rockets will certainly need Capela to go toe-to-toe with AD. I think that alone puts him on the court for a little more than 30 minutes, and he did go for 50+ on both sites in that first meeting against the Pelicans this season, playing only 24 minutes in that one.
* BETTER VALUE ON DRAFTKINGS *
Andre Drummond (DET vs CHI) – DK: $9300* / FD: $10,200
Drummond gets matched up against Cristiano Felicio, who ranks dead-last out of 80 centers in DRPM. His numbers haven’t been all that great lately, but the number on DK is much easier to hit.
—- UPDATE: Felicio isn’t starting now, still a fine spot against Robin Lopez.
Nerlens Noel (DAL vs CHA) – DK: $4100 / FD: $5000
Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said recently that he’d be switching games on/off in which Noel would alternate sitting with Salah Mejri… well, tonight it’s Noel’s chance to shine. I don’t mind Noel on FD either, but I had to point out how much of a great discount he still is on DK.
* GPP *
Nikola Vucevic (ORL vs PHX) – DK: $8100 / FD: $8100
Vucevic’s numbers haven’t been great lately, but PHX has allowed the most FPs to centers over the last month.
Alex Len (PHX @ ORL) – DK: / FD: $4500
Should be needed for a decent amount of time against Nikola Vucevic. ORL is the worst rebounding team in the NBA.