So we have a 5 game slate tonight. Thanks, DFS world for leaving off the best game. On this slate, we have AD and Harden. Unfortunately, I don’t see fading both of them as an option tonight. There just is not enough mid-tier value. So many things would have to go right for it to work out for you. Unless you feel comfortable stacking Lakers for mid-tier value against the lowly Grizzlies. I’d like to hear some more news on CP3, but at this juncture, I truly do see him sitting. I prefer Harden over AD at this time. Trying to squeeze both into your roster is not a bad option either. Here is my position by position breakdown with pricing for both sites. (FD then DK)
Point Guards:
Kemba Walker (9100/8500): What a game he had the other night. Even though half his shots were open looks, it was still pretty to watch. His price has moved up and I do feel comfortable fading him tonight. Howard is back and he will need to have another masterpiece to beat you. He has had a 61 point showing against Dallas last time out, but I see him falling into more of a 35-45 category tonight. However, if you do plan on fading the studs tonight, you most likely will need to gravitate to Kemba. This is why it is hard for me to want to fade Harden or AD since you are relying on Kemba to have a game where he exceeds value.
Dennis Smith Jr (7100/5900): I have no interest paying for him on FD. His price is extremely fair on DK. According to Vegas, this game should stay close. He has a great projection of 5.9x on DK.
Elfrid Payton (5700/5800): This play is not for the faint of heart. If you are strictly a numbers guy, everything about this says NO. It just looks like he forgot how to play basketball. It doesn’t look like Booker will play and I really did want him to play so the defense opens up a bit for Elf. However, if there is one time you would roster this guy based on a narrative it is tonight. He is going back to Orlando where they traded him for a bag of chips and a free large coke at McDonald’s. I swore him off a long time ago, but tonight could be his troll game. I plan on deploying him for that troll game.
Ian Clark (4200/3800): Here is your value tonight thanks to Rondo being scared to play against Houston for whatever reason. He sat out vs Houston last time. He should see 30 mins at 4k. With value like this opening up, it gives you a gateway to roster the studs without needing a stud to destroy value.
Honorable Mentions: Jerian Grant/Tyler Ennis
Shooting Guards:
James Harden (11,800/11,700): I am not fading him on FD. I also prefer him over AD on DK as well. If you know anything about basketball, shooters who have an off night tend to bounce back the next time they go out. I think this game gets out of hand, and Harden will be the reason why.
Jrue Holiday (8500/8200): He is priced right where he should be on both sites so he is firmly in play. It will be extremely hard to pass up on Holiday tonight with Rondo out. He scored a 47 last time in the exact same situation. That would be right at value. If you plan on fading Harden, you need to have Jrue in your lineup. The only way I can see myself getting off Jrue tonight would be to do a combo of Harden/Gordon. On DK, I don’t think you have the option to fade Jrue.
Eric Gordon (5200/6600): I am locking him in on FD. DK I will not be. That price difference is insane. With or without CP3, I like him on FD. You need CP3 to sit to play him on DK and I think DK priced him that way.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (6300/6500): He will have open looks all night against Memphis. He is my favorite pivot tonight off a lot of the more popular studs. I would much rather play him over Gordon on DK.
Honorable Mentions: Troy Daniels/Luke Kennard/Wayne Selden – Strictly Value Plays…in that order
Small Forwards:
Josh Jackson (6800/7000): He will be chalky yet again. I faded him the last 2 times and it didn’t bite me. Tonight, I am just locking him in and moving on. This will be a fast-paced game against a very bad team.
Jeremy Lamb (6300 on both): He is consistent as of late. We have a positive aDvP matchup here and he should limp into value even if he has a bad game. If he does well he could see 40. I really like pairing him up with JJ on FD, and loading both up on DK as well. The SFs under Lamb and Jackson tonight are at all that appealing.
Trevor Ariza (5000/4700): He is going to get 34 or so minutes tonight. He is a very safe play on both sites. He shouldn’t kill you, but temper expectations. He will hover right around 20-30 points.
E’Twaan Moore (4700/4300): He is one of the more safer value plays on the slate tonight for SFs. He has been very consistent vs the Rockets and could blow up tonight if he gets hot from deep.
Honorable Mentions: Wesley Iwundu/Joe Johnson/PJ Tucker/Dwayne Bacon(DK Especially)
Power Forwards:
Anthony Davis (12700/11500): I prefer Harden on both sites. Harden is first, then AD. The only way I roster AD is if I pair him with Harden.
Blake Griffin (9400/9500): His price is too high tonight for me to have interest. I don’t see the bulls keeping this game close at all.
Aaron Gordon (7800/7500): My favorite play at power forward. My favorite play on the board. Orlando will be scoring plenty of points and he will be the one to put them on the scoreboard.
Kyle Kuzma (6200/6600): You saw how many open looks Kemba got against Memphis. Kuzma will see tons of open looks as well. He is playing SF and Memphis bleeds points to SFs.
Marquese Chriss (3800/3600): He received a crazy amount of minutes last night and crushed value. He is my favorite value play tonight. He should hit value in a fast-paced game even if he only gets 20-25 minutes.
Honorable Mentions: Cheick Diallo (if mirotic sits)/Dwight Powell(If Dirk sits)
Centers:
Dwight Howard (8400/8000): Fully rested after a monster game. His floor has been value against Dallas. He is my favorite center tonight without question.
Nikola Vucevic (8100/7600): No one on Phoenix can guard him. He is a great pivot off Howard, but I won’t be doing that. It will be the Aaron Gordon show tonight in Orlando. Not Nikola.
Nerlenz Noel (5000/4100): On DK, Load him up. He is still only going to get 20 minutes, but his price is extremely fair. If you are paying down for Center I really like Noel.
Alex Len (4500 on both): I have always hated Len, but his minutes are secure tonight at 25. I never consider him “safe” persay, but tonight he is safe enough to atleast get you 20. I like him if you plan on moving to a Harden/AD combo.