In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Ben and I go by xBenJamminx on Twitter and all of the DFS sites.
I recently joined up with the DFS Army and will be providing content for the site and it’s members. I specialize in small slates and NBA is one of my main focuses for DFS.
There is a two game slate tonight and I wasn’t really planning on putting out content yet but this seems like a decent time to start.
What I’m going to be doing is just sharing my thoughts on the slate and highlighting some things I think may be of importance when considering the scope of the slate and the use of game theory to make decisions.
I did an interview with Jason Baumgardner of the Perfect Lineups documentary. I spoke mostly about Small Slate Strategy and my approach so tonight is a good of time as ever to give it a listen.
Here is an overview for today’s slate (Fanduel Pricing)
Players who have dominated previous matchups against today’s opponent over their last 3 matchups (FD Points Per Game)
Eric Bledsoe vs DEN 54.2
Karl-Anthony Towns vs LAL 53.4
Jimmy Butler vs LAL 43.3
Jabari Parker vs DEN 43.3
Nikola Jokic vs MIL 41.4
Brook Lopez vs MIN 40.8
Andrew Wiggins vs LAL 39
Players whose production has increased recently. (3 game FDPG vs 10 game FDPG)
Name / 10gm avg / 3 gm avg / FDPG Increase
Wilson Chandler / 19.9 / 34.8 / +14.93
Kyle Kuzma / 24.1 / 36.6 / +12.49
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 22.5 / 32.6 / +10.04
Players whose minutes gave increased recently. (3 game mins vs 10 game mins)
Name / 10gm avg / 3 gm avg / mins Increase
Eric Bledsoe / 28.1 / 34.6 / +6.57
Tyler Zeller / 13.5 / 19.6 / +6.13
Wilson Chandler / 27.8 / 32.5 / +4.68
Random Notes
Injuries
The only aspect of today’s injuries is that Jamal Murray is a GTD but Probable. He played 38 minutes through chest discomfort last game so while this isn’t terribly concerning, I’d pay attention.
Pace
Nuggets (4.0) and Lakers (3.7) both get pace increases in this matchup.
Pace increases help a team’s fantasy production because they should be presented with more opportunities than they would in an average game. More potential shots which also add value for rebounds and assists as well as more passes which increase the value for steals.
Players with Usage over 25%
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Isaiah Thomas, Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle, Eric Bledsoe, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton
Vegas Lines
Minnesota is favored by 10 and seems to be the only blowout contender but the good thing is that even when Minnesota is in a blowout game, their players still play the a similar amount of minutes.
Point Guard
There’s really only a few viable options today so the ownership will be concentrated on a few guys.
Eric Bledsoe $8,000
Great matchup, great pace and is playing close to 35 minutes a game. Normally I’d be a bit weary of using him at this price because his ceiling is around 5x but this matchup is amazing for him. In his last 3 games vs Denver he’s scored 61.7, 39.3, and 60.2 FD points. His usage has dropped a bit since moving to the Bucks, with that said I’ll have a ton of him tonight and probably start every lineup I make with him.
Jeff Teague $6,700
He plays too many minutes not to play him here, over 30 MPG this year. On a small slate like this you sometimes have to take a stand and I’m not playing any Isaiah Thomas today and will load up on Bledsoe/Teague. Over the past 6 games (spanning 3 years) he has averaged 27.1 FD points per game both home and away. Crazy, 27.1 FDppg over the last 3 Home games vs Lakers and 27.1 FDppg over the last 3 Away games vs the Lakers. IT has scored 27 FD points only twice in his last 10 games and is more expensive so I’ll use my ownership here. At first I thought I may be able to use Tyus Jones as a super value play but he just gets no minutes, I can see using him in a couple if you’re doing MME but I’m not confident in him.
Jamal Murray $6,300
I think he makes a good play on this slate and I really hope he keeps the GTD tag on because he played 37 minutes last game vs the spurs and put up 27 FD points. He scored 23 and 25 fd points in his last two games vs the Bucks. The 25 fd points came on 4-13 shooting so there’s upside for sure.
Shooting Guard
I see myself working in the mid-tier which I consider $5k – $7k. I have no problem with Khris Middleton and Will Barton here, my advice would be if I was using one of these two guys, it would be in a lineup where I don’t have more than 1-2 other high usage guys from that player’s team.
Josh Hart $6,000 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700
These guys have been very valuable to their teams as of late, playing over 30 mpg. I’m using both of these guys and wouldn’t even mind using both in a lineup. That’s a move that the average player probably wouldn’t do but it changes your construction a bit because people would probably go with Gary Harris at the same $6 if they were also using KCP. They each have 30+ upside with secure minutes and a starting spot.
Andrew Wiggins $6.300
He averages 37 mpg over his last 10 games, gets a good up-paced matchup and has averaged 39 FDppg over his last 3 games vs Lakers, including his 46.8 effort in their last matchup. He has as much upside as Middleton and Barton, though he hasn’t shown it as of late, this could be an upside game for him if it stays close.
Gary Harris $6,000
I wouldn’t click him out of my player pool but I’d go Josh Hart over Harris if I had to choose.
Tony Snell $3,500
He’s a straight up GPP punt, plays a ton of minutes and once in a while flashes upside. Don’t build any lineups around him but you can’t argue with 29 mpg for min price on a 2 game slate, even if he has a historically low usage%.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,700 has never topped 50 FD points vs Denver, I’m not sure why but he’s averaged 33 FDppg over his last 3 games vs them. I’m not going to say he’s a fade but I certainly have no problem reducing my exposure to him if if necessary. He’s obviously a beast and can drop 50 every night but he’s going to have high ownership so I don’t mind using Butler in some lineups over him.
Jimmy Butler $9,500
He’s been playing great lately and has almost as many 50 FD point games in his last 5 games as Giannis. In his last 5 Matchups vs Lakers he’s scored 50, 45, 34, 59, 59 so there’s upside here, enough to increase my exposure to him.
After that it basically comes down to Brandon Ingram or Wilson Chandler and I just don’t like Chandler enough to wanna use him because even though he’s had a good two games, he’s not a model of consistency. I’d rather use Ingram even though he’s $500 more but I wouldn’t completely fade Chandler if making a lot of lineups.
Power Forward
There’s not much to choose from here so I’m definitely playing Taj Gibson who plays over 30 mpg with a good matchup. If I have money left over I’ll play Kyle Kuzma, if I need to save a bit I’ll play Trey Lyles, if I’m desperate for savings I’ll use Jabari Parker (even though he’s on a minutes limit). If you’re making 150 lineups, you could consider exposure to Gorgui Deng at a few % points but I wouldn’t use him unless doing that or you have $3,500 left over for PF and you wanna keep that lineup.
Center
Tough decision here with Karl-Anthony Towns $10,300 and Nikola Jokic $10,000. Towns has put up at least 48 FD points in 4 of the last 5 matchups with the lakers. He’s been playing a bit better than Jokic as of late so he’s be my primary option. Jokic has had a triple-double in both of his last 2 games vs the Bucks. I’m using both and if I have the money going with Towns if not then Jokic.
While Julius Randle $7,500 has been hot lately, I don’t really like the price and would prefer to pay up at Center or way down for savings. You can certainly use Randle if you want to make your lineup more balanced, I just prefer to pay up tonight unless you paid up for both SF spots and still want upside at Center. I don’t even mind using Brook Lopez $5,600. His situation has changed but while on the Nets he scored over 30 FD points over his last 4 games vs Minnesota and two of those he played 22 and 27 minutes so maybe there’s opportunity for upside if Julius Randle gets into foul trouble or isn’t playing well.
Besides that I could make a case for Tyler Zeller who has probably been even less on people’s radar than Thon Maker and he’s played over 20 minutes in both of his last 2 games, scoring 28.6 and 18.1 FD points. I wouldn’t expect much but I’ll have him in my player pool.