AND WE ARE BACK. Welcome back to The Sway Bar – Plays, Fades and Values. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. The sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and only 5 times has someone in the top five ended up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 20th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th arent unplayable, but they are just volatile. Obviously the chalk is going to be Truex Jr., Keselowski and Larson.
AJ Allmendinger – Dinger rolls off 20th and carries a pretty solid recent history at Daytona, boasting top thirteens in his last three outings. While AJ isn’t my favorite play by any means – especially starting at the high end of our limit – he is worth some exposure
Chris Buescher – In his four tries at Daytona, Buescher has one top ten finish that came last year at the 400. While he is a talented driver for sure, I feel this 500 will benefit the experienced considering how edgy the cars are. Limited to no exposure on Buescher.
Michael McDowell – The McDowell Paradox. Always a good play, but always starts too high. I’d be a lot higher of McDowell if he started in the 30s, but he is still worth a look. He has top 15s in his last four starts here!
Ty Dillon – Ty has always shown some muscle on plate tracks – but struggles to finish. I feel this years 500 will be espically destructive, so my exposure to Ty will be limited.
Martin Truex Jr. – The Toyota camp is probably the most saavy in the garage, and I am confident they have a plan of a attack for this race that includes keeping MTJ out of trouble and able to compete for a win. He will be one of the more higher owned drivers in the field, but I am comfortable trying to be over on MTJ.
Brendan Gaughan – Gaughn is worth some exposure, even rolling off 25th. He has had great finishes at Daytona over the last few tries and has a knack for being there at the end. He is worth being over on.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne has never really been a hammer on the plate tracks, and this year seem to be more of the same. I have no concerns over his equipment – which means I will still play him – I am just not super confident in his ability to finish toward the front.
Jeffrey Earnhardt – I think 27th is a little too high for Earnhardt, who has a nose for trouble. One of the few drivers I will be under 10% on in this range.
Danica Patrick – Danica’s last few tries at Daytona have been very lackluster – but now the gloves are off. It is the last race of her NASCAR career and she will be boom or bust. Don’t go crazy with Patrick – but she could shock some people.
Justin Marks – Justin Marks is a saavy driver who will have a plan for survival. I like him as much as anyone priced down here. However, the odds on him are super good for no reason at all. He will not win. The odds could push his ownership higher than it ought to be though.
DJ Kennington – The ragin’ Canadian! DJ has shown no ability to impress at the last few Daytona races, and I expect more of the same this year. Worth a play? Probably. Don’t go taking any loans out for DJ though.
Brad Keselowski – The chalkiest, and probably best play in the field. If Brad K finishes, it will be in the top 5 and in the optimal. Determine your DNF projection for Brad, and set your exposure based on that. I expect he will be 60% + in every single contest.
Corey LaJoie – I don’t mind this play at all. This is the car that Cole Whitt really impressed in back in 2017. Lajoie has a top 11 finish at Daytona to his name, and looked comfortable during the duels last night. I like this play.
William Byron – Before getting spun around by air in the duels, Byron looked comfortable and confident – happy to run around in line and not make any high risk moves. I will be playing young Willy B a lot come Sunday.
Gray Gaulding – There are some politics at play here. I would fade fully. I will update this closer to Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson – This is another obvious one. Elite driver, elite equipment, 25-30% DNF likelihood. Should be a pretty easy decision.
Matt DiBenedetto – Matty D is coming off TWO top thirteen finishes at Daytona. He will be running a backup car, but that usually won’t matter at Daytona. I expect Matty D to hang back and avoid the chaos and compete for a top 15 before the day is done.
Aric Almirola – This is my second favorite play in the field. Aric is so so underated by the DFS world, and now that he has some decent equipment – he could be a real hammer in 2018. He is an EXCELLENT plate driver, whose stock is probably down after being taken out in the duels. I like this play a lot.
Kyle Larson – Larson is no lock when it comes to restricor plate racing. In fact he has had some pretty horrible luck in the past. Regardless, you can’t avoid him starting this far back. Look for him to have 50% + ownership come Sunday.
David Gilliland – Gilliland found some trouble during the duels last night, but he is no slouch when it comes to restrictor plate racing. This is a great low downside play, even considering how highly he will be owned.
Mark Thompson – I don’t see any value here. Even if things get nutty, I don’t expect Thompson to finish this race.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.