Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s time! NASCAR DFS is BACK and I couldn’t be happier. While the season doesn’t start for a week – the contests start now! We have three “exhibition” races to tackle this week and it all starts Sunday afternoon. The first on the slate is the Advanced Auto Parts Clash – a duel between anyone who scored a Pole Position in 2018, or has won the Clash in the past. This year, we see 17 drivers take the field and We will talk about every single one today. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
So this slate is going to be a little different than you may be used. Plate races kind of turn traditional strategy on it’s head for a couple different reasons:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- There is only 75 laps. Meaning we only have 18.75 laps led points to give out, and depending on how cautions come probably only 25 fast lap points. This puts a premium on on place differential.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this contest will be playing at least five differential plays. Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – the DNF rate could be more than 50%, or as low as 10%. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With only 17 drivers – there will also be lots of duplicated. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
There was no qualifying for the clash, just a random draw. There was also no meaningful practice data. So, I am going to go through every driver in the field, by starting order, and highlight their history, projected ownership and play-ability in my opinion.
Austin Dillon – Austin drew lucky number one, which puts a big red flag on him for our purposes. In fairness, prior to 2017 AD had a pretty respectable track record at Daytona – so he isn’t a straight away fade. That said, chances are he doesn’t hold the lead and chances are he doesn’t win. This means he is working with just potential fast laps, points for finishing, and a negative point differential. You can sprinkle him in hoping he dominates but I wouldn’t recommend it. I would suspect he will be 15-20% owned, so try to hit under that.
Denny Hamlin – Starting in spot number two is a restrictor plate ace in Denny Hamlin. I like Denny’s chances to grab the lead a little better than Dillon – but I still can’t recommend starting someone this high. He will probably see around 20-25%
Joey Logano – If there is one thing Ford knows it is plate races, and Joey sure can wheel his Ford around Daytona. In the last 5 Clash’s, Joey has scored a top 6. Now he could burn us, but I am still fading Joey as he just starts to high. Trust the process. I think you will see Joey at around 25%
Erik Jones – Taking over the #20 is Erik Jones who will appear in his third race at Daytona, and his first Daytona Clash. He starts 4th and is damn near a full fade in my opinion. Expect him to be owned at 10-15%
Jimmie Johnson – Seven time starts top 5, and brings just a miserable Clash track record with him. Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson have a real history of phoning it in for the Clash. Bigger fish to fry I guess. Fade. Name recognition will probably still allow him to be around 20% owned.
Martin Truex Jr – Mr. Wonderful himself starts 6th. The defending champion will no doubt look to get lined up with his Toyota brothern – but will do so in the pack, not leading it. Fast laps are possible, significant laps led are unlikely, but he could compete for a win. Sprinkle him in the same way you might Dillon. Defending champion clout and will probably see him owned at closer to 30%. I will be way under that.
Kasey Kahne – Poor Kasey took a bit of a downgrade in 2018, moving from the Hendrick #5 to the Levine Family #95. This will mean more moving forward, but at a place track this car can be competitive. Unfortunatly, he starts 7th. I am still going to get a little exposure to Kahne, just because I think most people will fade him. Expect him to be owned at around 10-15%, I will be around that too.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – Ricky makes his return to the Clash tomorrow and will roll off in 8th. Ricky made a real statement on plate tracks last year and I think this year will be more of the same. While most of his success came at Dega, I think Ricky can make some noise this year at Daytona. He is right in the middle of the starting lineup, so I am hoping he goes overlooked. Look to see Ricky at around 20%. Ricky is a decent off the chalk play.
Kevin Harvick – Starting 9th is the Ford of Kevin Harvick, who has a Clash win in 2013 and a top five last year. Daytona hasn’t been great to Harv over the last few years, but anyone 9th and back is worth a look. I expect Harvick will have ownership in the 30s, which I think is about the right place to be.
Kyle Larson – The breakout star of 2017 will round out the top ten. Larson was highly owned every single week last year and I expect more of the same to start 2018. Larson is a serviceable plate racer with a couple Clash top 5s, but not much in the way of wins at Daytona. I will try to be slightly under on Larson.
Ryan Newman – Here is my favorite play of the day. Newman will roll off 11th, not too high and not too low – and has a pretty decent plate race history. However, he has a history of riding in the back to avoid the chaos, a real boom or bust strategy for such a short race – but a strategy I love. I think Newman will be around 30% owned.
Chase Elliott – Chase makes his second Clash appearance and will do so from the 12th starting spot. Chase doesn’t have a great Daytona history, but has shown some prowess. I think he will be a little over exposed based on name recognition, probably to the tune of 45-50%. Not my favorite play by any means, but his low starting spot can’t be ignored.
Kyle Busch – The 2018 betting favorite will roll off 13th. One thing we know about Kyle Busch is he WILL 100% go for the win. He will be aggressive and if he can avoid trouble he WILL finish in the top 5. Now thats a big IF, and Kyle will likely be one of the highest owned drivers in the field – around 55-60%. I would put his DNF rate at about 25%. You can do the math here.
Kurt Busch – The Clash has never been a friend of brother Kurt – but a 14th starting spot will make him unavoidable for our purposes. I would expect to see him played at around 35%. I would expect to be OVER that on all drivers towards the back of the field.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney will make his Clash debut and is Penske debut tomorrow afternoon, and will do so on a track where he has shown some real power at. He takes over one of those Plate-Dominant Penske Fords and will be hungry to make a new statement in his new digs. Expect to see Blaney played at 50-55%, but don’t be afraid to go over that – he has no where to go but up.
Jamie McMurray – When it comes to plate racing their is NO ONE more aggressive than JMac. Here’s the thing – JMac will probably wreck…he is just to aggressive. HOWEVER – a small field will serve to put his DNF rate down a little. Couple that with the fact the he starts second to last? Whew – sign me up. Look to see Jamie played at 55-60%
Brad Keselowski – The plate race king starts last…oh boy. NOW – there is some weight to the fade Keselowski argument – he will be near 65% owned, and it only takes one wreck to finish his day. However, he is a beast at the Clash, and a beast on plate tracks. My only advice here is to trust your own process and remember – fortune favors the bold.
No matter what you do – don’t get married to your money, as things can get wild at Daytona. Don’t be afraid to get weird with your lineups and don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. Avoid heavy exposure to those starting towards the front, and PLAY MME if you are able.
Be sure to check out Taco’s Fast 40 DFS NASCAR Podcast!
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.