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Interesting 4 games tonight. You will honestly need to plug into our Slack Forum throughout the day to see the conversation, as these thoughts may change some. Goalie is a crapshoot, and there are a lot of games that might contain goals. Our coaches are busy right now getting NBA players up to speed on the fundamentals of NHL. Join us!
NHL Advice – Matchups and Focal Points
Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Philly can score with the best of them and Columbus is pretty hot right now. I don’t know that I like either goalie too much here. I can make a case for both, but I can more easily make a case for neither.
PHI1 – The top line is never a bad option, but they feel overpriced for the matchup tonight. Konecny is the exception at his last 5 game line of 3/2/14 (goals/assists/shots) for $5900.
PHI2 – Might be the better matchup tonight in Columbus, and I won’t mind seeing Vorachek in some lineups. But, at similar pricing, I’d much rather see Wheeler, Aho, or Schwartz. I have a sneaking feeling about Wayne Simmonds tonight on that top power play unit. Columbus isn’t great on the kill and Simmonds, while not on fire, gives us access to the top scorers and the second line. His recent production and price isn’t the worst for this kind of exposure.
Defense – It’s all about Gostisbehere for me here. $6600 is expensive, but 8 assists in the last 5 games is definitely productive. I know Provorov is everyone’s love-child, but the dude just isn’t doing enough right now for me to choose him over some punts also relying on shots and blocks to hit value.
CBJ1 – Panarin, Atkinson, and Dubois have 6 goals, 4 assists, and 53 shots between them over their L5 games, and they come affordably priced. I probably take Dubois, though, and run off in search of others…..like the 2nd line below.
CBJ2 – Your value is here! Foligno (3/1/24 for $5900) is running a bit better than Konecny, and is much farther under the radar. Wennenberg is just ok at 0/3/13 and $5300. Bjorkstrand is the sneaky one at $5300 with his 2/13/20 L5 line. Add them up and you have 5/7/57 for $16,500 making them one of the better stacks of the night. Or, of course, take one or two for a neat little #MiniStack.
Defense – Let’s play a game I played with our VIPs this morning. Which would you rather play.
Defenseman A – 0/3/32 for $5900 … or … Defenseman B – 0/3/28 for $5200 ?
I’d love to tell you who these two are, but like I said, I shared this with our VIPs this morning and, well, they get my secrets. And, if you don’t remember what the numbers mean, you need to come inside and see our Research Station. It’s custom built, and there is nothing like it in the industry.
See NHL Advice – Ladder Up – How to Properly Allocate Resources
New VIPs Rock the GPPs!
So, as we sweated this victory out together, AS AN ARMY, last night in Slack I asked “smackptb” if he would share some thoughts on assembling this gem. His answer surprised even me because I didn’t think he leaned as heavily on my Value Stacks and Breakdown articles…
I keep telling people the content is great, but the Slack conversations put him on the winning play, James Neal.
New York Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes
This game should be high scoring again. People know the Islanders give goals. Carolina can score. Carolina, however, also gives goals at times and both teams are on back-to-backs. I’ll be on Cam Ward if he starts, but I won’t touch Greiss with your Fanduel account.
NYI1 – Loaded with talent, but I won’t be on them at these prices unless I have money to burn at the end of my construction process……which I might tonight. There is a lot of value out there.
NYI2 – I’m intrigued by Barzal and Eberle, but I’m also remembering these Barzal numbers have a 5 assist game in them. That single game will inflate these numbers, so temper them back in your head a bit. He only has 7 shots in 5 games. Sure, he has 9 assists, but 7 shots isn’t going to provide much floor for $6400 when he falls shy on the actual production.
Defense – Both Leddy and Pulock are playable. Pulock should wind up popular at his $3800 tag. 22 shots and blocks give you a decent floor. I’m not as high on him as others because I have my value defenseman locked in and will need to balance all that floor with a little production to have a shot at the cash lines tonight. Newer players tend to overvalue shots and blocks and tend to forget that even at cheap prices, you still need goals and assists to build a winner.
CAR1 – These guys definitely hit the radar. Hell, anyone wearing a Hurricane uniform should….even the guy dancing to the power play song in the 5th row. But, speaking of floor, there isn’t much of one with this line. Aho only has 17 shots in 5 games and that’s a steep price to pay for him. If he doesn’t score, he might just dud your night. Staal only has 10 shots. And, Teravainen only has 7. And, you want me to pay $18,200 for that stack? No thanks……hard pass.
CAR2 – They are just ok. I can see using Williams (1/4/17 for $5200) as a one-off, but I’m not really into stacking these guys up. It might completely backfire on me at the rate Islanders give up goals, but I just can’t count on a lot of shooting from these guys, either.
CAR3 – Now, we are getting somewhere. Lindholm (1/3/19 for $4900) and Skinner (4/1/17 for $6500) are my #MiniStack from this game. I’m getting both activity and production well correlated for the price and matchup tonight. Don’t overlook 3rd lines.
Defense – Faulk had a huge game earlier, but I don’t see the beginning of some sustained run. Pesce is where I’d turn for $3700 and his 2/2/16 line over the last 5 games. Compare that to Pulock and you have an average of 13.1 FD points over 5 games versus 7.0 FD points. And, Pesce is $100 cheaper. Twice the production because Pesce is actually helping set up and score some goals. Pulock is not.
Colarado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets
WPG is the top scoring offense at home. COL tends to be weak on the road and is still without their table setter Nathan MacKinnon (rumored to be returning soon). We can jump on the chalk train with Hellebuck tonight or look for another spot like Cam Ward (if he starts). Either way, Hellebuck will be the chalk goalie on the slate with that -200 moneyline favoring him out of Vegas today.
COL1 – Just not shooting enough. Deep GPP play, though.
COL2 – Same as above. Although, I will briefly consider JT Compher at his $4400 price tag as a one-off.
Defense – Barrie is the only playable defender in my opinion, and he is overpriced compared to the others we will focus on.
WPG1 – Scheifele is taking awhile to really get his legs back. That’s fine with me because people are missing Wheeler starting to heat up again. No goals, but 5 assists and 25 shots in his last 5 games make him a very playable top winger tonight. He won’t be overlooked tonight, don’t get me wrong. But, he can fall through the cracks on larger slates. I’m just pointing him out again so you watch his numbers for a nice little heater soon.
WPG2 – Roslovic isn’t shooting a lot, but for $3700, he is producing. Not the worst punt.
WPG3 – Laine and Ehlers are awfully expensive for what are now 3rd liners. They are more than usable, but it just feels dirty.
Defense – Nothing for me to see here.
NHL DFS Winning Tips – Dealing with Variance Once and For All
St. Louis Blues vs Dallas Stars
This game has a coaching narrative to it. Hitchcock knows the Blues and will play matchups. Yeo knows Hitchcock knows the Blues and will play matchups. Let the chess match begin. That said, this game has some talent in it currently running hot. STL is a shot suppression team and can shut things down. I’m not as worried about Jake Allen as most, but I’m not playing him in any cash games, either. STL has been scoring again, and Dallas’ defensive pairings are so worried about stepping up in the rush that they are giving goals on the counterattack. This game should be fun to watch.
STL1 – I like Steen most at 2/6/14, but don’t mind the line as a stack. They have scored 4 goals together in 3 games.
STL2 – Schwartz anchors this line and wouldn’t be bad paired with Schenn….as long as you understand Schenn is slumping a bit and is currently overpriced.
Defense – Watch for news on Colton Parakyo today. If he sits, Vince Dunn becomes attractively priced.
DAL1 – Your top line here is doing all the work for the Stars again. Radulov is still a value play at 1/4/22 for $6700. Seguin is perhaps the best centerman on the board tonight but costs like it. I can take or leave Jamie Benn.
DAL2 – nope
Defense – A ton of your production comes from these guys in the Dallas offense. I suggest you grab exposure to some. Tonight, due to STL being a defensive team, I’m inclined to stick with the cheap guys. Pateryn is quickly becoming a shot-blocking savant with 20+ in his last 5 games. At $4300, he’s still too cheap. Hamius is another at $3600, and if he chips in a goal or assist here and there is very attractive as a deep value play. And, Stephen Johns might be the odd man out being he is now priced with Pateryn but can’t block shots like Pateryn; therefore, just doesn’t have the floor for the same price. Don’t worry about ownership in cash games. You might pivot in GPPs and hope for a goal out of Johns, though.
NHL Strategy – Overtime
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