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NBA DFS Analysis – Happy Valentines Day!

Alright – The last big slate before All-Star Weekend.  There is going to be a lot going on up until lock, and even after lock.  The good news is that most games start fairly early so we should hear most of the news we need to put together a good cash and GPP lineup.  I am treating this slate as normal, and I think we actually have the advantage.  I do not blame you if you choose to do just GPP only tonight, and play extremely light.  There is a good probability a late scratch or two could happen so keep that in mind.  I won’t be doing a game by game breakdown today, but instead will be doing a game by game injury report identifying who will be cash and some viable GPP pivots.  At the end of my article, I’ll be giving a list of where the industry is leaning towards cash and give my favorite cash plays.  Please join me today in #the-loose-goose-nba before games lock.  Today will be hectic if you plan on playing.

 

Atlanta at Detroit (-10.5)(206)

This is a pace down game with a large spread.  There is tons of value that has opened up in this game with Bazemore/Schroder/Ilyasova have already been ruled out.  I don’t see this game being competitive at all, but you can grab some of the value that opened up for Atlanta.  I won’t be touching anyone from Detroit, so I am just going to list the minutes up situations from Atlanta.  Drummond is the only viable option, but like I said, this game is Detroit vs Atlanta’s backups.  Atlanta is already one of the worst teams.  A lot of these guys I list will most likely be showing up in the DS due to the value they present.  I’d grab one or two and move on.  All the following guys are in a huge minute up situations, and I will personally be grabbing Dedmon and/or Prince and that is all.

PG: Delany/Dorsey

SF: Prince

PF: Collins

C: Dedmon/Muscala

Charlotte at Orlando (+6)(211)

This is the third highest paced game on the slate.  No injury news or late scratches should happen between these two teams.  For Charlotte, Kemba has scored 62/53 against Orlando this year already.  He will go under-owned and is one of my favorite tournament plays.  For Orlando, only interest I have is Birch.  His minutes are trending up and his price is fair.

Kemba Walker: Huge Games this year vs Orlando.

Miami at Philadelphia (-6.5)(200)

The only viable player on Miami would be Bam Adebayo.  He has a weird trend where he has a bad game, good game, bad game, good game.  He is scheduled for his good game.  For Philadelphia, I’m not touching Embiid vs Whiteside.  I’ll look into playing Saric if Embiid sits.  Mcconnell is still fairly priced.  I’m not thrilled about this game, but those are some of the pieces to look at.

Indiana at Brooklyn(212.5)(+4)

The total is trending down.  I have zero interest in Cory Joseph, ever.  I haven’t played him and won’t start now unless I receive salary for rostering him.  Dipo is too expensive.  Sabonis is a fine option tonight vs BKN.  He has scored 30+ both games vs them already and is affordable.  For Brooklyn, I like me some Crabbe.  He is taking 15-20 shots a game and is still reasonably priced.  If he adds peripherals, he can get 40 no problem.  I also like Quincy Acy as a pivot from some of the 4k chalky PFs.

Washington at Knicks (209.5)(+4.5)

This game is purely GPP for me.  I won’t roster anyone here for cash.  Satoransky is viable and Beasley is viable.  Short and sweet.

Clippers at Boston (-5)(212)

I don’t like too much from this game for cash purposes.  For the Clippers, Lou Williams is always a GPP option.  I won’t be touching him in cash.  I like Tatum for Boston due to his matchup.  He had 1 game against them and scored 31.7 Fanduel points.  Bradley is almost minimum price and I don’t mind him at all in this revenge scenario coming back home to Boston.  I do not mind him in CASH one bit, but I don’t see him having a ceiling for GPPs.

Toronto at Chicago(+6.5)(219)

Demar DeRozan!  I love him here.  One of my favorite plays on tonight’s slate.  Kriss Dunn is back so that lowers my interest for Chicago players.

Derozan:  Torched Chicago for 56 last time they played.  Lavine Defense?  Sign me up.

Sacramento at Houston(-14)(216.5)

There is merit to rostering Fox tonight.  CP3 is randomly bleeding points, and this won’t last forever so it is something to take advantage of.  Fox is fairly priced and worth taking a chance on.  I have no interest in anyone else from Sac.  I like Harden here, but I won’t be paying up for him in cash because I want to do a balanced approach tonight.  He is certainly a great GPP option, but the blowout risk is there.  I really don’t see this game staying close though.  Gerald Green if Gordon sits is a beautiful pivot off of the Prince/Oneale Chalk at the SF position tonight.

OKC at Memphis (+3.5)(208)

No real interest here either.  Slow paced game.  Russell has had success vs Memphis, but not enough to pay 12k for.  Jarrell Martin is a cash option if Green sits.  For the most part guys, just ignore this slow-paced game.

Lakers at Pelicans(-5.5)(231)

MARDI GRAS!  Highest total on the board, highest pace on the board.  I will be stacking this game every way possible.  Everyone is in play.  AD/MIROTIC/RONDO/HOLIDAY.  RANDLE/KUZMA/POPE/INGRAM/THOMAS.  That’s the list of guys I want on my roster.  I’ll try to fit as many as possible.

Phoenix at Utah(-12)(211)

Utah is on a 10 game winning streak and Phoenix is god awful.  I really want to play Mitchell here, but his price is up and the blowout chance makes me nervous.  Royce O Neale is Chalk again.  I faded him last time, but I don’t mind playing him here tonight.  Jae Crowder is being noticed and he fits in perfectly here.  He is a good cash option at PF.  Joe Ingles has become a favorite in the Army, and he is playable again.  His price is going up though.  For Phoenix, Dragan Bender is the only viable option with Chandler out.  I have no interest in anyone else with Booker back and eating into usage.

Golden State at Portland(+6)(226)

Second favorite game of the night.  LILLARD is one of my favorite plays.  Collins/Davis become great value plays if Nurkic sits out.  Harkless is a viable pivot tonight at min price.  Draymond Green is in.  Green/Durant/Curry from the warriors in that order.

Lillard: Dame Dolla at home will feast tonight.

I will be going over where the industry is going for CASH tonight, then give you my preferred plays in cash.  The best way to become a consistent player is identifying who is cash, and how to properly pivot.

This is where the industry is leaning towards in CASH.

PG: Delaney/Dorsey/Westbrook/Curry/Lillard/Walker

SG: Mitchell/Beal/Harden/Dipo/Jrue Holiday

SF: Prince/Oneale/Durant/Porter/Jackson

PF: Collins/Mirotic/Griffin/Bender/Crowder

C: Davis/Randle/Drummond/Dedmon/Muscala

My roster construction for cash will be fairly balanced.  I want my guys to be able to get at least 25-30 without a problem.  If I look at my lineup and see there is a higher chance he could get less than 25, I remove him.  So no, I won’t be rostering a lot of the chalk Atlanta players.  My goal is to try and mix and match as many of these players as possible.

PG: Walker/Lillard/Curry

SG: Mitchell/DeRozan/Harden/Pope/Bradley

SF: Oneale/Durant/Ingram/Tatum

PF: Mirotic/Crowder/Collins/Kuzma/Aminu

C: Dedmon/Davis/Randle

Good luck everyone!  If you don’t feel comfortable with a cash lineup tonight, stick to GPP and play light!  I’ll see you in Slack!