Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

Forslund’s Full Mount – UFC Fight Night 125 – DFS MMA Breakdown

Welcome back once again!  We are right in the middle of a nice run of UFC events and we have a card every weekend this month.  This week we have a 12 fight card.  With salaries the way they are this week it’s going to be tough fitting everyone you want in cash.  A big key will be identifying the right dog plays.  If you haven’t already seriously consider becoming a VIP and take advantage of all our VIP tools available to you at the Army. We have a great tool called DFS Army Research Station plus our Slack chat only available to VIP’s.  Slack is a great place to discuss the fights with some of the best DFS MMA minds out there. Also, see what a DFS Army VIP Membership has done for some of our members like DBarlow87 who won $250,000 in NFL on FanDuel this season using our VIP tools and content. Without further delay, let’s break down these fights.

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Viana (-400) 9.1k vs Stevenson (+325) 7.1k

This is a pretty simple fight to start the card.  Viana is a decent striker with decent power.  She is a good wrestler with a decent submission game.  Stevenson isn’t very good anywhere.  She has faced pretty poor competition as well (her opponents in her wins combined record is 0-13).  Stevenson is going to be a fade for me most likely.  Viana is playable in all formats.  It just depends on the build of your lineups.

Figueiredo (-150) 8.4k vs Morales (+130) 7.8k

Figueiredo is a good striker with decent power.  He also has decent submissions.  Morales trains out of Team Alpha Male.  He is a decent striker with good combinations.  He has fairly decent submissions.  Figueiredo is going to be my preferred target in this fight.  I wouldn’t force him into your cash lineup.  But, if his salary works at the end I don’t hate the play.  Morales is more playable in GPP’s (I just don’t know how much exposure I want with him).  Overall Figueiredo is my preferred play.

Soto (-125) 8.2k vs Alcantara (+105) 8k

Soto is a solid wrestler with decent takedowns (TD’s).  Alcantara is a veteran fighter.  He is a decent striker with good knees.  He has shown in previous fights to be very hittable.  The main problem with this fight is a don’t have a really strong lean with either fighter.  For that reason alone this is only a GPP fight for me.  If I had to choose Soto is my preferred play but, not by much.  This isn’t a must target fight so it’s fadable as well if, you want to cut down your fighter pool.

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Vera (-140) 8.3k vs Andrade (+120) 7.9k

Vera is a decent striker.  He has a good jab and good leg kicks.  He is dangerous on the ground with his submissions.  Andrade isn’t good in any particular aspect.  He has decent leg kicks.  The one thing I noticed about him is he often times goes for that big strike.  This is a fight I would fade if you are making less than ten lineups.  If making more than that it’s not a fight I will have heavy exposure to.  Vera is my preferred play of the two.

Patrick (-250) 9k vs Hadzovic (+210) 7.2k

Patrick isn’t the best striker though, he does have decent leg kicks.  He is a solid wrestler with decent TD’s.  Hadzovic is a good striker with big power.  He does tend to get taken down fairly easy in previous fights.  Another quick note Patrick is coming into this fight on a significant layoff.  This is a classic wrestler vs striker matchup.  Hadzovic is one of my favorite dogs to use in GPP’s.  I don’t think he is safe enough in cash.  If he can’t stop the TD’s he will lose.  Patrick is also playable in GPP’S. He is just my least favorite of the 9k+ fighters.

Means (-200) 8.8k vs Moraes (+170) 7.4k

Means is a solid striker.  He has very good knees and elbows.  Moraes is a decent striker.  He is a decent wrestler with decent submissions.  Not a fight a really care for in cash.  Means has shown to struggle against wrestlers if he gets taken down.  Even with his troubles I just stated Means is my preferred play of the two in GPP’s.  I don’t think he will be very popular after losing his last fight.  Moraes is worth using a bit as well with limited exposure.  

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Santos (-280) 9.2k vs Smith (+240) 7k

Santos is a good striker with good leg kicks.  He has big power.  He also has good ground and pound.  Smith isn’t really good anywhere.  Plus he has been knocked out seven times in his career.  I really like Santos in all formats.  Smith I may have in one or two lineups if building 20+ lineups just because this is MMA and anything is possible.  Overall I will have heavy exposure to Santos in all formats.

Golm (-155) 8.7k vs Johnson (+135) 7.5k

Golm has never been out of the 1st round (which right there tells us he has a good ceiling).  He is a decent striker with good combinations.  Johnson is a tough fighter.  He has solid TDs and good cardio.  Johnson is a decent play in cash and GPP’s.  As the week has moved on I have started to like him less and less in cash.  I really like Golm in GPP’s and I also don’t think he will be as high owned as others in his price range.  He is also playable in cash (At this time I am not going that route).  

Prazeres (-135) 8.6k vs Green (+115) 7.6k

Prazeres is coming into this fight having won his last 6.  He is a decent wrestler with solid submissions.  Green is a decent striker and will have a reach advantage here.  He is a solid wrestler (Former D1 in fact).  In cash, Green is one of my favorite value plays.  He has very solid odds and this fight is very winnable for him.  Prazeres is only a GPP play for me.  I won’t have a ton of exposure to him.  He is more of a pivot off of some of the other fighters in his price range.  Obviously, if I like Green in cash I also like him in GPP’s and is my preferred play in this fight.

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Shevchenko (-1000) 9.6k vs Cachoeira (+650) 6.6k

Obviously, the odds speak volumes for this fight.  Shevchenko is a solid striker.  She also has solid TDs and good submissions.  Cachoeira isn’t really good anywhere.  She is tough.  She throws a ton of strikes and has decent power (they just don’t always land).  The main issue with Shevchenko is she is the highest priced fighter.  She is playable in all formats but I definitely prefer her in cash more.  She is a massive favorite to win but, Vegas does like this to go to a decision.  If that’s the case it is highly unlikely she would reach value there.  So, don’t go forcing her into your lineups.  Cachoeira is only playable for me in cash just because she opens up so much salary (makes it fairly easy to fit in 4-5 favs).  In short, Shevchenko is playable everywhere just super expensive.

Dodson (-160) 8.5k vs Munhoz (+140) 7.7k

This is a GPP only fight for me.  Dodson is a good striker with fast hands.  He just sometimes throws strikes at a low volume.  Munhoz is a decent striker.  He has very good submissions (his guillotine is lethal).  Dodson, I don’t like that much.  While it’s likely he wins he probably won’t reach value.  Munhoz intrigues me more.  He will most likely need a submission to win.  He would easily reach value if that happened.  Overall Munhoz is my preferred play.

Anders (-300) 8.9k vs Machida (+250) 7.3k

Anders comes into this fight with a 10-0 record.  He is a good striker with good power.  Machida is a UFC veteran and will have the Brazilian crowd on his side.  He is a very good striker all around.  Normally I love to stack the main event in cash.  That’s not the case this week.  Anders is my preferred play in cash.  He is also very much in play in GPP’s.  Machida is in play in GPP’s.  I won’t be using him a ton but, I do think he is worth targeting in them if building more than 12 lineups.  

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Obviously, after weigh-ins, my thoughts could change.  If you want to see my current thoughts or have any questions at all look for me in Slack. Also, keep a lookout for our new MMA Research Station! Good Luck DFS Army!

 

Join the DFS Army

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Sports tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today!  You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!