Welcome back to yet again another Saturday night of fights. This time it’s down under in Australia. We have a solid 12 fight card here. There aren’t a lot of dogs that I like this week. I think the key will be picking the right fighters in the 8,000-8,900 range. As always, remember to stick to that 80-20 rule (80% of bankroll for the card in cash games and 20% in GPPs). Hopefully, all you VIP’s listened to our pod last week where we discussed cash and GPP strategy in general for MMA contests. If you aren’t a VIP member, what are you waiting for? Consider becoming a VIP and take advantage of all our VIP tools available to you at the Army. We have a great tool in the DFS Army MMA Research Station that is very helpful when putting together your lineups. Also, Slack is the place to be to discuss everything MMA. We have some of the best DFS MMA minds in their period.
Before we start breaking down this week’s slate I wanted to congratulate DFS Army Member insanedolfan37742 on his life-changing $100,000 win in NBA on FanDuel earlier this week. We offer the best NBA product in the industry and the big wins keep rolling in.
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Now let’s get down to breaking down these fights.
Abe (-155) 8.2k vs Jumeau (+135) 8k
Abe has solid kicks and a good jab. He also has a solid judo background (in previous fights has used this to get takedowns). Jumeau is a decent grappler with okay takedown (TD) defense. Since both of these fighters are both in the mid-range it’s a good fighter to target some in GPPs. My preferred play is Abe. He strikes at a higher rate 4.2 significant strikes per minute to Jumeau’s 2.9. I will have exposure to Jumeau as well because of the wrestling upside. Not a fight I will have 100% exposure to overall, but definitely not a fight to fade.
Quinonez (-160) 8.7k vs Ishihara (+140) 7.5k
Quinonez is a decent striker (3.2 significant strikes (SS)) and also works well in the clinch. He has good TDs and good cardio. Ishihara is a decent striker (3.4 SSs) and is generally a fast starter. He has shown in previous fights he can be taken down. I like Quinonez in all formats. He lands at a solid rate and has the ability to get multiple TDs. Ishihara’s cardio issues worry me. If he doesn’t get a finish in the first round he isn’t likely winning. Which only puts him in play in GPPs for me (only if building more than 10-12 lineups). Overall my preferred play is Quinonez.
Pearson (-155) 8.6k vs Hirota (+135) 7.6k
Pearson is a veteran and is solid overall. He is a good striker but, in return is also hittable himself. Hirota is a tough fighter and a decent striker. He is also fairly good in the clinch. I most likely won’t be using much at all. There are fighters I like much better above and below him. Hirota is in play as a punt in all formats. Basically, this is a dog or pass fight for me.
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Formiga (-130) 8.1k vs Nguyen (+110) 8.1k
This is a fight you will definitely want exposure to in GPPs. Both fighters are priced even and whoever wins this fight should score very well.
Formiga has solid TDs and is good on the ground. He also has solid submissions. Nguyen is a good striker and a fast starter. This is your classic striker vs. grappler fight. Currently, I don’t have a strong lean either way. Be sure you check out my thoughts post weigh-ins here. Overall a fight I will have good exposure to in tournaments.
Volkanovski (-220) 8.9k vs Kennedy (+180) 7.3k
Volkanovski is a solid striker with good TDs. He is a good grappler with solid cardio. Kennedy will be coming into this fight with a height and reach advantage. He is a good grappler with solid TDs. I like Volkanovski in all formats. He has a solid floor and big upside through his TDs and wrestling. Kennedy is worth using some in GPPs. Overall my preferred play is Volknovski.
Adesanya (-380) 9.2k vs Wilkinson (+315) 7k
Adesanya is a good striker with good leg kicks (especially a very good body kick). He also has good knees and decent TDs. Wilkinson is an okay wrestler with decent TDs. The only thing that makes me a bit with Adesanya is I haven’t seen him get taken down in any of his fights. So, I just don’t know how he would react here. The most likely outcome is Adesanya gets a finish by the second round through his striking. He is playable in all formats. Wilkinson I might have in 1-2 lineups if I am making more than twelve lineups. Overall I will have a healthy amount of exposure to Adesanya.
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Kim (-135) 8.5k vs Brown (+115) 7.7k
Kim is an aggressive fighter with decent striking. He is a decent fighter with good TDs. Brown is a tough fighter with decent strikes. Both of these fighters like to land at a decent rate. With Brown’s odds alone he is in play in all formats as a punt. With Kim, if this fight doesn’t end early I don’t know if he will pay of his salary. I will be using both in tournaments but, my preferred play is Brown for price savings.
Pedro (-290) 9.1k vs Safarov (+245) 7.1k
Pedro has solid TDs and is good on the ground and he also has decent submissions. Safarov is a good striker with good leg kicks and he is a decent wrestler. Pedro is definitely in play for GPPs. I am not sure for cash yet (If it doesn’t end early Pedro is likely not reaching value). Safarov I might have some small exposure to in GPPs. In short, Pedro is the preferred play.
Jingliang (-160) 8.8k vs Matthews (+140) 7.4k
Jingliang is a good striker with good power and he is an okay wrestler with decent TDs. Matthews isn’t really good anywhere. He is decent in the clinch with ok TDs. Jingliang is playable in all formats. Matthews is worth a shot as a punt. This is just a weird fight salary wise because their fighters a prefer more around both of them. This is another fight to pay attention to my thoughts after weigh-ins in Slack.
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Tuivasa (-310) 9.3k vs Asker (+255) 6.9k
Tuivasa is a good striker with good power. Asker is a decent wrestler with a decent top game. The main thing going into this fight is we really don’t know how good or bad Tuivasa is on the ground. With Tuivasa priced as the highest fighter and these concerns, he is not a must play. Asker is worth a shot as a super punt. I haven’t started making lineups yet so, I don’t know if I need to go that low.
Blaydes (-160) 8.4k vs Hunt (+140) 7.8k
Blaydes is an athletic and a good striker. He is a solid grappler with good TDs (quick note will have eight-inch reach advantage). Hunt is a solid striker with big power. I really like Blaydes in all formats. He has a solid floor with a high ceiling. Hunt is worth a shot if you want to use him in a few lineups. I most likely will be just fading him altogether. Once again Blaydes is in play in all formats.
Rockhold (-140) 8.3k vs Romero (+130) 7.9k
First off, the stack is very much in play here for cash. Rockhold is a good striker with very good body kicks and he has very good top position. Romero is athletic, a solid wrestler, and he is a good striker with good power. This is fight that is really tough to call. My current lean is Romero just based on the fact that Rockhold has shown a suspect chin in previous fights. Overall a good fight to have exposure to in general.
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Once again be sure to reach out to me in Slack with any questions you may have. Also, keep a lookout for the MMA Research Station update for this week! Good Luck DFS Army!
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