NHL DFS Advice for 2/15/2018
NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and fantasy. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 11-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
VGK 1: Karlsson, Smith, Marchessault – I know, I know, top line on a team projected to score almost 4 goals. Chalk city. But what you might not know is over the last three weeks this is also the number 1 PP unit in the league. They score at will and EDM can’t defend with 8 guys on the ice. I know it’s a chalky line but they needed to be mentioned anyway.
MIN 1: Zucker, Koivu, Granlund – I love picking on the Caps defense. Their top line is my favorite to pick on now that PIT 1 has figured it out. This line isn’t clicking like they were but I think Zucker is an excellent cash play and as a line they are definitely in play due to the lack of defense Ovi, et al play. I like this line even more now – as I was finishing this article I got word that Grubbauer was starting not Holtby.
DET 1 – Zetterberg, Nyquist, Mantha – Believe it or not this is one of the hottest line combos recently with three goals over their last three games. TB is very easy to exploit on the defensive end and Vasilevskiy is beatable. This is not a cash play but it is one of my favorite GPP plays. TB also struggles to contain centers – Zetterberg always seems to have the puck on his stick, so I wouldn’t hate a Henrik one off in cash or hybrid. It’s risky, though.
Honorable Mentions: TB 1-2, LAK 1, VGK 2, NYI 1-2, NYR 1, EDM 2, CGY 1-2, ANA 1/3, SJ 1-2. BUF 1, NSH 1-2, CAR 3, WSH 1
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Petry: He is one of the most cash safe players on this slate. He has 7 points (4G, 3A) over the last eight games. He also has a very safe floor with the amount of shots on goal he takes.
Subban: I love the Preds tonight and he is the whole package (9 points over the last nine games) and he is willing to shoot from anywhere and block shots when he needs to.
Hamilton: Obviously, I can’t run him against Rinne but if I make multiple teams he will be a part of some others. He has very similar stats to Giordano but he seems to be more involved in the scoring recently. They are a perfect defensive pairing because they are both involved on both ends of the ice. If you have the money, use them together. It will be very lowed, even though on a slate this size you don’t need to worry about ownership.
Honorable Mentions: Doughty, Muzzin, Burns, Vlasic, Josi, Seabrook, Carlson, Karlsson, Russell, Edler, Del Zotto
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict. Just like a pitcher in baseball, they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Rinne: There are 22 goalies on this slate and he is without a doubt my favorite and he even he comes with risk. Pekka has a 6-0-1 record in his last seven games, two of those wins were shutouts, he has a 1.80 GAA to go with a slate-high 0.938 save %. The downside is CGY can still score in bunches. I’m banking on Rinne continuing his hot streak. I have him locked into my cash lineup.
Dubnyk: It isn’t often that I’m willing to pick on the Capitals with a goalie, but WSH is struggling offensively lately (#29 in CF/60 over the last three weeks) and Dubs is running hot. Dubnyk is 5-1-1 with one shutout, a 2.57 GAA and 0.925 save %. Washington can certainly score when they get hot but MIN also plays much better defense in their own building.
Ward: I’m a little scared typing this out. NJ can score, especially at home but Cam is hot right now. He is 5-1-1 woth one shutout, a 2.13 GAA and 0.926 save % over the last three weeks. I wouldn’t trust him for cash games but he is viable in GPPs tonight.
Honorable Mentions: Jones, Raanta, Gibson
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!