Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Career Builder Challenge Recap
Jon Rahm – All Formats – 1st place
Jon Rahm was my lock for the week. With expected high ownership the choice was made to own Rahm well above the field average with the thought that he had the best chance to win. I also felt more comfortable using Rahm compared to other high-end salaries and differentiating line-ups elsewhere. This gamble paid off as Rahm won the tournament and other high-end salaries finished nowhere near the top of the leaderboard. Given the relatively soft pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the cut happening after three rounds instead of two I felt comfortable paying up for Rahm in cash as well.
Chez Reavie – All formats – T36
Reavie was another player I liked in both cash games as well as GPP’s. Week in and week out Reavie is proving to be a super safe cash option and I felt the upside was there in GPP’s to finish at the top of the leaderboard given the fact he led the field in shots gained: approach the week prior. Reavie was solid for cash but fell a bit short of expectations for GPP lineups.
Charles Howell – Cash – T20
This week I took a hard stance on Howell. As discussed in slack chat he was a cash game lock for me but I would be staying away in GPP’s as I felt his ownership would be too high compared to the likelihood of him finishing as a top 10 score for the week. Howell ended up being owned on nearly 25-30% of GPP’s on DraftKings with lower owned, cheaper pivots of Kevin Chappell and Adam Hadwin being available (as mentioned in SlackChat) I felt more comfortable going that route in GPP’s.
Wesley Bryan – GPP – T63
I loved Wesley Bryan as a cheap GPP play this week. This seemed to be working out great after the first day until Bryan went +3 on Friday. Although he recovered to make the cut and play a full four rounds Bryan really did not live up to my expectations and stalled many GPP line-ups of mine from being at the top of the leaderboard.
Overall the week turned out pretty well for myself and other members of the DFSArmy. My top lineup of the week came directly from our Domination Station after making the adjustments to lock in Rahm and completely fade Charles Howell resulted in a GPP win (just wish it was entered into the bigger events)
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Farmers Insurance Open Preview
The PGA Tour will be staying in California this week but we will see a much better field with a few top names returning from Abu Dhabi. Jon Rahm will defend his title while also looking to win for the second straight week on tour. Rahm will be joined by; Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, a bunch of other top end players and some guy named Tiger Woods here at Torrey Pines.
This event will take place on two courses; Torrey Pines North, which will be played once and Torrey Pines South which takes be played for all other rounds. Other than two courses this event will play out like we are used to seeing, with the top 70 and ties moving on after two rounds of play.
First, we will look at the North Course. With only one round being played here more emphasis should be placed on the South Course but we should not just entirely avoid analyzing this track. The 7,258-yard par 72 plays very easy. With large fairways and large greens, there is not much trouble to be found and players who are on should be able to rack up the birdies.
The South Course is much longer, in fact, it is currently the longest annually played course on tour. The par 72 measures 7,700 yards so driving distance will definitely be critical this week. This event generally sees a smaller % of fairways hit which is likely in part because of them being a little more narrow and players trying to get the ball out there on longer holes. I’ll also be weighting Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee more so than usual. That first shot will be critical this week to set up chances for birdies. Speaking of birdies, I’ll be looking for birdie or better% as an important stat for finding the right plays in GPP’s. Finally, with a whole lot of 450-500 yard par fours, I will be looking for players that have done well recently and historically at holes this range.
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Picks
Rickie Fowler – GPP – DK: $11400 FD: $12100
For this one, you’ll definitely want to check back in with us on our SlackChat but right now I see Rickie Fowler as the lowest owned option of players above $10000. Last week, I was okay eating the chalk on Jon Rahm as he was the standout in the field. This week, however, I think there’s no clear standout with many of the top players in the world playing and I could see Fowler going underowned due to his string of recent missed cuts at this event. Two weeks ago I was all over Justin Thomas for GPP’s because of ownership and if I feel that is the case again this week I’ll have high ownership of the stud whose come top five in his last three tournaments.
Charles Howell – Cash – DK: $8300 FD: $10000
Howell is once again becoming a free square in cash game formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Howell has a VERY impressive resume at this event with no finishes outside of the top 50 in the last nine years and four top ten finishes in that span. Not much more can be said about Howell as I feel I mention him nearly every week he’s an option. Don’t overthink it, lock him in your cash line-ups.
Charley Hoffman – DraftKings Value – DK: $7200 FD: $9900
According to our PGA Research Station Charley Hoffman is the top value play on the slate for DraftKings. The world number 23 is making his season debut after vaulting up the leaderboard throughout 2017. Given what we saw last season there is no reason for Hoffman to be so cheap. Over the last 9 years at this event, Hoffman has made 6 cuts and has two top tens but if last season is any indication, Charley is a new and improved golfer and the missed cuts should not scare you off of him. Ownership will be very high leaving players to make a decision in GPP’s but in cash games, Hoffman should be a staple on all teams.
Jhonattan Vegas – FanDuel Value – DK: $8800 FD: $7700
Just like Charley Hoffman on DraftKings, Jhonattan Vegas’s price does not match his level of play. With great recent performances and a string of four made cuts at this event Vegas is looking like a great play in all DFS formats. According to our PGA Research Station, Vegas is the second best value on the board at FanDuel. His key stats line up well for me as he has been gaining stroked through driving distance as well as Shots Gained: Off-The-Tee.
As always, this article is published as a first look, things change leading up to lock and SlackChat should be checked as thoughts are changed when new information arises.
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