Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Congratulations to our 9th winner justinschuh1991, of over $50,000 or more since midway through the NFL season, Interested in joining and gaining access to the same tools used by all nine of these winners? Click here
Sony Open Recap
Justin Thomas – Top End GPP – DK: 101.5 (10TH) FD:99.4 (T-15TH)
On the PGA Tour when any week one of the top five players in the world can win and no one will be surprised. When you have a chance to get one of these studs at low ownership it’s time to load up. I loved Thomas over Spieth for GPP’s this week due to last week’s results along with similar price points leading Thomas to be much lower owned. This paid off as Thomas outscored Spieth, had anywhere from 15-25% lower ownership across major GPP’s and finished with the 2nd highest point total of any player priced over $9000.
Gary Woodland – Cash – DK: 110 (6TH) FD:112.7 (7TH)
Great course history and a reasonable price with high expected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel led Gary Woodland into being a must play in cash game formats. Despite a little scare on Friday morning Woodland bounced back and did not disappoint owners this week.
Jason Dufner – DraftKings Value – DK: 90 (20th)
The $7300 price tag simply did not make sense and the ownership reflected this. Dufner was anywhere from 30-55% owned in DraftKings GPP’s and as discussed in slack can be pivoted from in GPP’s but makes a great cash game play.
Chez Reavie – FanDuel Value – 93.6 (25TH)
Just like Dufner, Reavie’s price did not reflect his ability. The 28th highest salary on FanDuel finished with the 25th most points and was a solid play in both Cash and GPP as mentioned in our VIP Slackchat.
DFS Army VIP membership Use code PGA for 10% off membership
*Draft DFS Snake Draft and Dream Team notes can be found in Slack Chat here*
Our Domination Station VIP Lineup Optimizer isn’t just good for NFL, NBA and MLB it also crushes for PGA – lots of winning and happy members!
Course Preview
The Career Builder Challenge is a unique format similar to what we see at Pebble Beach. Instead of taking place on one course this event happens across three different golf courses. Also, all players will get a chance to play at each of the three courses with the event’s cut taking place after the third round. With the Career Builders cut line-taking place after the third round, there are strategical changes that can be made to give yourself an advantage when constructing line-ups. Later in the week in our VIP Slackchat, I will be breaking down how strategy should be tweaked for cash-games with the change in the tournament structure.
The main course for the week is the Stadium Course, the 7113 yard, par 72 will be played twice (by those who make the cut) as every player finished up on Sunday at this venue. The very short par 72 has nine of ten par fours playing under 450 yards.
There is also the Nicklaus Tournament Course, a 7159 yard, par 72 which sees eight of the par fours under 450 yards. The third venue is the La Quinta Country Club, another short par 72 measuring 7060 yards. This is by far the easiest course of the tournament.
Overall across all three courses we see lots of short par fours, leading me to look into par four scoring 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards as important stats for the week. I mentioned how La Quinta is the easiest of the courses but all three are prime for scoring as the winner of this event has regularly scored -20 or better. It’s very easy to score when you are gaining strokes approaching the green. With so many short par fours and plenty of par fives players that are dialled in will be giving themselves plenty of chances for birdies this weekend and that’s exactly what we want. I will also be relying on recent performance more so this week than I usually do. Although the courses share similarities I think each is still unique and presents new challenges to players. Although certain players have shown good course history at this event I am more inclined to take players who have been playing well recently and hope that form translates across all three courses. Finally, with all three courses being easy another corollary stat I will be looking at is players who have performed well in the past at easy events. Some guys outperform the field at easy events while others outperform when the courses are much tougher, this week I’ll be looking the former to build around.
DFS Army Pricing – Use code PGA for 10% off membership!
Picks
Jon Rahm – All Formats – DK: $11800 FD: $12500
It seems almost unfair to write about picking the top player in the field but there is no way I can shy away from Rahm this week. Despite being the clear favourite of the field Jon Rahm’s price is not overly inflated and he is only a few hundred more than the second price players (Harman and Phil(why?)) on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Any form concerns were put to rest with the second place finish in the tournament of champions. As far as cash games go I think there is a case to be made for Rahm given the events cut does not take place until the third day and taking a chance on someone to make room for Rahm could pay off if he runs away with the lead at this event. Especially with the softer pricing on FanDuel, you can easily afford Rahm and still make a great cash game team. Ownership in GPP’s will be the question to figure out in deciding if you want to be overweight or underweight on Rahm and we have you covered here at dfsarmy.com with our research station ownership projections for VIP members.
Chez Reavie – All Formats – DK: $8800 FD: $9400
Reavie continued his string of recent performances with a T18 last week at the Sony Open. The more telling stat making him a core player for me this week was that Reavie led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and only missed out on the top of the leaderboard due to his putting. With so many scoring holes this week I like Reavie’s chances if his approach game is on as the putting can easily switch back in his favour from one week to the next. Reavie is cash safe and a great price to build around and ownership may be an issue this week but as it currently stands I feel confident using him in a large portion of my teams.
Charles Howell – Cash Games – DK: $8000 FD: $10,000
Year after year Charles Howell continues to perform throughout the west coast swing of PGA events. Although Howell rarely wins or finishes within the top ten players he consistently makes cuts making him a great cash game play. Because of this, Howell should see plenty of ownership across both cash games and GPP’s making him a great cash play and an easy GPP fade for me this week.
Wesley Bryan – GPP – DK: $7200 FD: $8600
Two weeks ago everyone was all over Bryan as a punt play and he let people down. Last week Bryan saw ownership just below 5% across major GPP’s on FanDuel and DraftKings. Bryan has shown an ability to contend across easier courses and has been putting up a lot of birdies the last few weeks (just look at our research station). I think Bryan could be sneaky this week and people will be off of him because of a missed cut at the Career Builder last year despite a decent performance last week.
As always, this article is published as a first look, things change leading up to lock and SlackChat should be checked as thoughts are changed when new information arises.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our PGA Cheatsheet!
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer!
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our Euro Tour Cheatsheet!
Be sure to sign up to our DFS Army VIP Membership in order to utilize our custom Domination Station projections, PGA spreadsheets and access to chat with Taco, myself and many other proven winners. Use Coupon Code “PGA” to receive 10% all of this PGA content as well as content for MLB, NBA, NFL and every other DFS sport your heart desires.