This weekend we get to start off 2018 with a 4 game NFL playoff slate. I expect to see a lot of new players in contests this week because these are all big games and will be on TV. People will want action on these games if they are watching them and DraftKings combined the Saturday and Sunday games for us into one slate where there is a lot of money to be made. Ownership will be more important than usual this weekend because we only have 4 games to work with so be sure to take that into consideration when building your GPP lineups. In cash games, nothing really changes let’s just try to make the optimal lineup and lock in the safer plays. Here is my game by game breakdown and the players I like for this 4 game slate:
Titans vs Chiefs (-9.5) O/U 44
Due to the pricing this week in DraftKings I like this game quite a bit when making my lineups. Aside from Travis Kelce, most players in this game aren’t too expensive so I think it is a good game to save salary with this week. Kelce is a GPP play only this week in my mind. He is too expensive and I would rather pay up at RB and WR so I think you have to pay down at TE in cash. He will have a low ownership in tournaments so I think that is the only reason I would plug him into GPPs if I am stacking this game.
I do have interest in both QBs in this game but I would lean towards Alex Smith in cash games. I don’t mind Marcus Mariota in cash either because the Chiefs had the 31st ranked defense this year against opposing QBs so if you need to save the $800 in salary he is in play as well. However, I would rather get my exposure to Mariota in GPPs . I think Smith is the safer play of the two because the Chiefs should win this game and I would rather have the QB with the higher team total. Smith has shown to have a pretty decent floor this year unlike Mariota so I would rather lock that in my cash games.
I don’t think I will have much exposure to the RBs in this game in any format. Both Kareem Hunt and Derrick Henry should have big roles so that is the argument I could make for them but I’d rather get my RBs in other games. The Titans should be playing from behind so I don’t see Henry having a huge workload in this game even if he is the only RB seeing snaps. If I was going to use a RB in this game it would be Hunt but I would prefer that more as a GPP pivot rather than trusting his high salary in my cash lineup.
The WRs in this game are my favorite place to save salary on this slate. Albert Wilson ($3.3K), Corey Davis ($3.6k), and Eric Decker ($3.5k) are my top Point Per Salary plays on this slate and I am finding myself picking at least one of them in almost every lineup I create. My preferred play of these three in cash games would be Decker because he has seen 21 targets the last 3 weeks so I think his floor is OK for his price. Tyreek Hill is one of my favorite plays this week and I like stacking him with Smith in cash as well. Hill has the most fantasy points per game of any WRs on this slate and he is $1,000+ cheaper than the top two priced guys. I think this week is one of the rare instances I like pairing a teams DST with their QB as well. One of my favorite stacks of the week is Smith/Hill/Chiefs DST. I expect Hill to return kicks and punts this week since it is the playoffs and he is by far the most dangerous player on this team. You can get Smith stacked with his favorite WR and then if Hill can return a kick for a TD then you get the 6 points for him as well as 6 points for the DST. If you are running out Mariota (preferably in GPPs) I think Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker are my favorite stacks for him since most people will go to those other 3 guys I mentioned earlier for the salary savings. Both Matthews and Walker should be the popular targets for Mariota this week and I think they will need to throw the ball a lot playing catchup in this game. If you are not playing any/many Titans players this week I think the Chiefs DST makes for a great play and they are my 2nd favorite DST on the slate.
Falcons vs Rams (-7) O/U 48.5
I do not love the QBs in this game for my cash lineup because Jared Goff is the most expensive QB on the slate and I would rather go with a QB from the previous game rather than pay $6.1k for Matt Ryan. I think the best way to use either of these QBs is if you are wanting to use multiple of their WRs in your lineup then stack those guys with their QB, but I think that is a GPP move only for me this week.
Todd Gurley is the lock for me in my cash lineup. I think this is where you start your lineup and you figure the rest out after that. Gurley has the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any player on this slate. He averaged 27.1 fantasy points per game this season and he has a good chance of beating that this week in a playoff game where he should tough the ball ~30 times. In the last two games Gurley played this season he scored a combined 103.6 fantasy points. That is insane! If he gets anywhere near that average this week you’re going to have a hard time cashing any lineup without him. For this reason he is in play in all formats but a cash lock for me. I do think he will be around 40% owned in tournaments so you can make a case for fading him in those GPPs to be different than the field and maybe you want to stack Goff with some of his WRs in case somehow Gurley has a bad game. In order to play Gurley you will have to save salary at other positions and one way to do that is using Tevin Coleman as your RB 2. He is only $4.1k and even if he is sharing work he could pay off that salary and let you get other studs in your lines. I don’t care for Freeman this week coming off an injury so the play at RB for me would be Coleman and I would be hoping they give Freeman a lighter workload.
Julio Jones has the highest ceiling of any WR on this slate so he is always a solid play in GPPs. I will have my usual 30% Julio this week in GPPs in case he goes off but he will likely not make my cash lineup at an $8k price tag. Sanu is another GPP play for me as well because he is only $5.6k and picking him over Julio will make you different in tournaments because Julio should be the highest owned WR in this game. If Sanu can out score Julio in this game you jump a solid percent of the field by making him a pivot play and saving that salary. The Rams WRs are in play as well and I think you can make a case for Robert Woods and/or Cooper Kupp in cash. This game is tied for highest over/under on the slate so I like getting multiple spots from it in my cash LU. Using Gurley and Woods is my favorite pairing in this game because they should see a huge combined role and having both of them in your lineup gives you a floor you can feel safe about. If you want to go Gurley and Kupp that is fine as well I just expect Woods to have the bigger game because he has clearly been the #1 WR on this team this season and now it’s win or go home. In tournaments, a pivot over to Sammy Watkins is a sneaky boom or bust play that could separate you from the field if you pair him with Goff and Sammy’s gets two long TDs. That is always possible with Sammy and all of the ownership with go to those other guys so it will be a very low owned stack.
Hooper is in play at 2.9k if you need to pay down to get other guys in your lineup. Using two TEs in GPPs. Hooper being one of them, is a strategy you could use to fit multiple other studs into your lineup. I don’t expect Hooper to have a big game but he doesn’t really need to for him to pay off a small 2.9k price tag. Other than that I think the Rams DST is the only other play worth mentioning in this game and if you find yourself not playing any Falcons players then I think that is the best time to use the Rams as the lowest priced home favored defense.
Bills vs Jaguars (-9.5) O/U 39.5
There is not a lot to love in this game. We have the highest favored team on the slate and the lowest over/under on the slate as well. I have zero interest in either QB in this game for cash. If you want to pay down at GPPs and take a shot on one of these two I would prefer Blake Bortles over Tyrod Taylor but I don’t think I will have much if any exposure to either of them.
LeSean McCoy was carted off the field last weekend and it didn’t look like an injury where he would be ok the following week. Even if he does play I will not have any exposure to him. I don’t even want to use a backup if McCoy sits so I have zero interest in the Bills backfield. On the other side of the ball, I do have a good amount of interest with Leonard Fournette. I expect him to see a large workload in this game and the Jags should be playing with the lead which will allow him to see more touches towards the end of the game. One of my favorite stacks in cash and GPPs is Fournette/Jaguars DST. I think with this low scoring possible blowout this stack makes a lot of sense and both will be lower owned than they should be because of their high salaries.
Personally, I have zero interest in any WR in this game. The Jags may have all their guys back and healthy for this week so there is just too many of them to know who will see the most targets and I would rather play WRs from other games. The Bills are going against a brutal defense so that is why I don’t care for any of their WRs either. The only other guy I will be using in this game is Charles Clay at TE. If Shady is out of this game, I expect Clay to see an even larger share of targets than he already has been. He has shown to have a solid floor and he is one of Tyrod’s favorite targets. At a DK price tag of $4k I think he makes for a great cash play to save a bit of salary and still have a shot at a big number.
Both DSTs are in play for me in this game. If I am not using Fournette in my lineups there is a good chance I won’t have any Jaguars in that specific lineup and that puts the Bills in play for me. They should be low owned, 5-10%, and Bortles is known to make a few bad decisions when throwing the ball. If could give the bills 2-3 chances for interceptions in this game and if they can run one of them in for a TD then they will be a great play this week at their cheap price of $2.5k. As I mentioned earlier, the Jaguars DST is in one of my favorite stacks so I like them a good amount. I don’t think the Bills will be able to put up many points and this Jags D can score TDs any week. They are my favorite DST this week and if you can afford them I think it is a good spot to pay up.
Panthers vs Saints (-7.5) O/U 48.5
There is a lot to like in this game. I think this is the most stackable game on the slate. If you are avoiding Gurley and Julio in GPPs this is the game to stack up. At QB, I think both guys are playable in all formats. I would prefer Drew Brees over Cam Newton because I like his weapons more. Brees likes to spread the ball around and he even dumps off to his RBs enough where you can stack him with a RB along with a WR or two and they can all hit value. Cam Newton is in play as well because of his rushing yards. In a win or go home situation I don’t expect Cam to hold back anything this week. If you want to play Cam and don’t know who to stack him with I don’t think you even have to worry about it because he could rush two TDs in and take the points all for himself. Naked Cam is always in play but I prefer this move as a cash only play most weeks, but you have to be different somewhere so I don’t hate it in GPPs on this 4 game slate.
I want exposure to all three of the top RBs in this game. I think all three are cash playable but pairing one or two of them with Gurley is the hard part with their high salaries. In cash, since I am playing Gurley, I would lean towards Mark Ingram or Christian McCaffrey as my #2 in cash games. Both of these guys have high floors and can also put up pretty high ceilings if you like them in GPPs as well. I expect CMac to be one of the most heavily targets guys on the Panthers so I don’t mind stacking him with Cam. Ingram always has the chance at running in two TDs and he has looked great this season. If the Saints are winning this game he will be the RB the Saints lean on late in the game so I like him a lot and his price tag is only $6.9k which we haven’t seen Ingram that low since week 6 of the NFL season. Alvin Kamara is always in play for me as well. This kid is super explosive and every time he touches the ball he could score a long TD. Since Kamara is a lot more expensive than Ingram this week at $8.6k I think I would prefer him in GPPs only this week. Because Kamara has this high price tag his ownership will be lower in tournaments and that makes me want to be over the field on Kamara in GPPs. One other good thing about having these RBs in your lineup is all of the late swap opportunities you will have with this as the last played game on the slate. If you are using 3 RBs this weekend and one of them is in this game be sure to plug him into your Flex spot and not use a RB space where you would have less late swap options.
Michael Thomas is by far the safest WR in this game. I personally will have heavier ownership on Hill and Julio so I will probably be under the field on Thomas. He is in a real good spot here against poor Panters CBs but I like getting my exposure to the Saints RBs and those other high priced WRs so I haven’t been clicking on his name very much. I expect him to be close to 40% owned this week so this is my high ownership fade. Ted Ginn is in a revenge spot here against the Panthers and he is the boom or bust type of player I like to use in GPPs. Ginn is 2.6k cheaper than Thomas so this is the pivot I like if I am using Brees and stacking him with a RB and a WR. Ginn doesn’t need a ton of targets to meet value this week but he has a high ceiling with the deep shots Brees should take at him. I don’t like a lot with the WRs on Carolina but Funchess is definitely in play in GPPs especially if you are stacking this game. If you are using Cam I think stacking him with CMac and or Funchess makes a lot of sense and you can run it back with a Saints RB and WR as well and hope for a shootout. Greg Olson at TE is the only other skill play worth mentioning in this game. I think he makes for a better GPP play than a cash game play because I expect people to pay down at TE this week and he could be lower owned than he should be if you want to throw him in your game stacks.
Because I expect this game to be a shootout I don’t care too much for the DSTs but if I were to use one of them it would be the Saints. The first time these two teams played this year the Saints scored 14 DK points so I would be fine with that if they could duplicate that performance. I think the only times I will use the Saints DST this week is when I am using Kamara. He should be the punt and kick returner this week for the Saints and that is another double dip I have some interest in.
Be sure to look for late swap opportunities if you are using players in this game. That is one edge we can gain this week by using these Sunday games instead of loading up on players going Saturday. Let’s crush this wildcard weekend and start of 2018 with some nice profits. Good luck to everyone and I hope to see a lot of DFS Army members at the top of leaderboards.