This is our last 4 game slate of the NFL season. Next week is only a two game slate, and then all we will have after that is the big game. Let’s make these last few weeks count and win money while there is still money to be won in NFL. If you are an NFL only DFS player I would suggest looking into NBA after the season and using the DFS Army tools to help build your bankroll. We have coaches in all sports and they are all available for help.
Falcons (-2.5) vs Eagles O/U 41
This is the game I have the least amount of interest in this weekend. I think I will personally be fading both Matt Ryan and Nick Foles this week but if you want to use them in a game stack or as a low owned GPP shot I think they are in play for those reasons. With this game total only being at 41 I would rather get my QB exposure else in other games where I think there are better weapons to stack them with.
My preferred play at RB in this game would be Devonta Freeman because I think Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi will both only see around 10-15 touches so I would rather pay up for the volume and get Freeman who should see at least ~20 touches in this game on the ground plus through the air. Overall, I don’t see me having much exposure to any of the RBs in this game but in tournaments I think I’ll use Coleman as a punt in 10-15% of my lineups and the same percentage range goes for Freeman who should be low owned and is a nice pivot away from Dion Lewis.
Julio Jones is of course where I want my exposure to this game. I have a hard time seeing the Falcons beating this Eagles defense without feeding the ball to their best player, Julio. The best WR/CB matchup of this slate goes to Julio and I think he will take advantage of the 10+ targets he should see. I see Julio being the most popular WR on this slate so I want to be overweight on him in tournaments. I think Mohamed Sanu is in play especially if you’re not using Julio but I won’t have too much exposure to the other WRs in this game. Nelson Agholor would be my preferred play over Alshon Jeffrey if you are using Foles and want to stack him with a WR.
Zach Ertz is the guy I want to play from the Eagles. In the first game he played with Foles this year he saw 9 targets and in the second game he saw 14. I would love for a high priced WR to see 14 targets so if I can get it with a TE priced at 5.8k it’s almost too hard to pass up. I will have a lot of lineups with Julio and Ertz and that is where the majority of my ownership will be from this game. Aside from that, the Eagles DST is very in play at a low price of 2.6k and they are my favorite DST if I am paying down at that position. The Falcons DST is in play in tournaments because they will be low owned so if you want to pay up to be contrarian I think that is fine and could pay off big but I would go elsewhere in cash games.
Titans vs Patriots (-14) O/U 47.5
Here is where I am most likely to go at QB. I think Brady is the safest QB for cash games with his team total of 30 points. I do expect Brady to be the “chalk” in GPPs so I think if you are playing cash games this week that is where I would want to get my exposure and then I would want to take chances at lower owned QBs in GPPs. Marcus Mariota is one of those guys I want to take a good amount of chances on. Similar to last week, a lot of Mariota’s weapons are low priced on DraftKings so that is making me want to get a good amount of exposure to them in my lineups. If his weapons are going to do well I need Mariota to have a decent game and I think with his rushing stats and the Titans playing from behind he has a good chance at doing that. This is one of my favorite games to stack up on this slate so I think using Brady with 2 Titans players makes sense and the same with Mariota and pairing him with 2 Patriots players.
After last week’s dominant performance from Derrick Henry he is now priced at 7.3k on DK and I have zero interest in him this week for that reason. I think the Titans are playing from behind this week and they should be putting the ball in the air during junk time so I think his price tag is just too high for a 14 point underdog RB. The RB I want in my LUs in Dion Lewis. If I don’t have Brady then I want Lewis. I have a hard time believing the Pats don’t put up points this week and I want the guy who gets multiple TDs. Dion Lewis has a good chance at being one of those 2 TD guys even if Rex Burkhead is active this week. I expect the Pats to ease Rex back in slowly and have him more ready to go next week in a tougher matchup. If the Pats are winning big then Lewis should continue to be the workhorse and see most of the late game touches. At a price tag of 6.6k on DK I think it is worth eating the chalk if he is popular.
Corey Davis is the player I will have the highest exposure to in this game. I love his price tag of 3.4k and it allows me to fill my LUs with other higher priced players I want to squeeze in. Eric Decker and Chris Hogan are two other guys I want high exposure to because I think they have very good shots at paying off their price tags on DK. I think at 7k Brandin Cooks is too high priced for me this week and I will look to get my Patriots exposure in other spots. Cooks always has the chance at breaking a long TD so he is definitely GPP viable if you can afford him I will just be rooting for him to be a bust this week personally. The other two WRs I will have in my player pool are Rishard Mathews and Danny Amendola but mostly just included in my games stacks because I don’t like them as much for my “one-offs” as I do Davis, Decker, and Hogan.
At TE, this is the other game where I am targeting in the majority of my lineups. If I don’t pick Ertz on a team, there is a very good chance that Rob Gronkowski or Delanie Walker is the route I chose instead. I think those 3 TEs will be in 90-100% of my LUs and I want to be sure to pay down at other positions so I can afford to pay up at TE in all LUs if possible.
This is the last game I am looking to use for DST. I like using both offenses too much where I am forced to fade both DSTs in this game.
Jaguars vs Steelers (-8.5) O/U 41
I expect this game to be pretty popular this weekend and that makes me want to have less exposure than the field in most spots. With a game total of only 41 this is not a spot that screams out game stacks to me. I have little interest in both QBs so I think if I use either of them it might be Ben Roethlisberger in a game stack with Bell and AB in case they reach the crazy ceilings we have seen with those 3 killer B’s. If you are playing cash games I think starting your team with Le’Veon Bell is the way to go. Plug in Bell and figure your LU after that. He has the highest floor on the slate and he even saw 10 receiving targets the last time the Steelers faced the Jaguars. I expect Bell to be the highest owned player on the slate in GPPs so I think I want to be underweight to the field there because he is so high priced and if he fails to meet value then it kills your chances at winning a tourney. Bell is too good of a player to fade completely but if he is going to be 40% owned I think I would want to cap my lineups at maybe 20-25%. I want to be overweight on the field on Leonard Fournette this week though. If the Jags are going to have any shot at winning this game they need to keep the ball out of the hands of the Steelers offense and the way to do that is through Fournette. He burned a lot of people last week and should have lower ownership this week for that reason and he is at a cheaper price tag. When the Jags and Steelers played earlier in the season Fournette went off for 34.4 DK points. If that happens again this week you’re going to need him in your LU to have a chance at winning a GPP.
Since I don’t have a lot of interest in either QB in this game I don’t care for their WRs or TEs either. Antonio Brown is too good to fade so I will have at least 10-15% exposure to him but he will be too chalky for me to invest too much into with that calf injury he is coming off of. The last game against the Jags AB saw 19 targets against Ramsey so if he can get that amount of action again this weekend I will probably get burned but Bell is where I would rather pay up if I am using Steelers players. The only other player that has made my player pool from this game is Dede Westbrook. He has seen 24 targets the last 3 weeks and at a price tag of only 4.4k I think he makes for a good punt play.
The Steelers DST should be the highest owned DST this weekend because of how bad Blake Bortles looked last week. I think if you’re not using any Jags in a LU and can afford to pay up for the Steelers then they are good to use. I think pairing the Steelers with Bell is where I would prefer to go in cash games but in GPPs I would rather be underweight to the field. The Jaguars DST is my favorite contrarian DST of the week. We are used to seeing the Jags DST as the highest priced DST on a full game slate and this week we get them as the 3rd most expensive on a 4 game slate. The last game against the Steelers the Jags DST put up 28 DK points and picked off Big Ben 5 times. I love stacking Fournette with the Jags in tourneys this week and I want at least 25% of my LUs to have that stack in GPPS.
Saints vs Vikings (-5) O/U 46.5
Here is my favorite game of the week from a watching purpose. I think these are the best two teams remaining in the NFC and I expect a great game. This is also the last game of the slate so there are opportunities to late swap if needed. For that reason, plus the fact that this game is played in a dome, it is one of my favorite games to stack and get my exposure to with one-offs. Starting at QB, this is the game I will be using if I don’t have a QB from the Pats/Titans game. I most likely will use QBs from this game when I am taking the game stack approach and I think I want at least 15% of Drew Brees and Case Keenum in my game stacks.
All four RBs from this game will be in my player pool. I think the RBs in this game are where the majority of work will come from and I like using 3 of them in the same LU to be contrarian. You can use both RBs from the same team and feel comfortable with it no matter which team you prefer to use. The way I would go about it is if you think the Saints will win, you’ll want to use Mark Ingram from the Saints and use Jerick McKinnon from the Vikings because they would be the ones passing in that situation. If you think the Vikings will win, then Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara would be the way I would want to go because the Saints would need to pass more in that situation and Kamara would have a bigger role in the game plan.
The WRs from this game will mainly be in my lineups when I am using the game stacks and including their QB. If I am using Brees I think that is when I would want to use Michael Thomas and/or Ted Ginn. If I am using Keenum then Stefon Diggs and/or Adam Thielen would be the guys I am more likely to use. I expect Thomas and Diggs to have the tougher matchups in this game so I would prefer Ginn and Thielen if I am using a WR from this game as a one-off. I do want the majority of my exposure to this game with the 4 RBs so I think I will personally be underweight to these WRs compared to the field. Kyle Rudolph and Josh Hill would only make my LUs if I need a cheaper TE included in my game stacks but I would rather pay up at TE and avoid them.
I have interest in both DSTs in this game. If I am not using a game stack from either team then I like using both DSTs. I think I would prefer the Saints because they are only 2.8k and should be pretty low owned. Keenum has looked great this year but this is a huge game and maybe we will see the old Keenum and get some INTs taken to the house. Plus if you stack Saints DST with Kamara then you get the double dip opportunity and score 12 points if you stack those two and he runs back a kick/punt. I expect the Vikings to be fairly high owned this week and for good reason. They have been one of the best defenses this year and they are best against RBs which is where the Saints have been dominating. I expect the Saints RBs to be more used in the passing game this week so I don’t see them shutting them down but could have their usual success in stopping the run game. If you are using Murray in a LU then I think stacking him with the Vikings DST makes sense.
That is all I have for you this week. I hope you all crush this final 4 game slate and hopefully you found this article useful. If you have any questions hit me up in the DFS Army slack chat and I will help as much as I can. Good luck everybody and I hope to see some DFS Army members at the top of GPP leaderboards!