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Marley’s Matchups (NFL DraftKings playoff slate breakdown)

This is the last multiple game slate of the NFL season.  This year feels like it flew by so I am already starting to miss the season myself.  We have a long time until the next season starts so we need to use this final slate to make money in NFL while we still can.  Personally, I will only be chasing GPPs on this two game slate and avoiding the cash games because most people will go towards the same safer plays so I think there will be too many similar lineups.  The way I will be attacking this slate is by making multiple GPP lineups and putting different stacks together to try to win a tournament.  With only two games we will have to be different somewhere and can’t throw in “safe” cash LUs because there will just be too many ties and it will be hard to win a tourney without splitting it with 1,000 other people.  Here is my breakdown for this final two game slate:

 

Jaguars vs Patriots (-8)                                                           O/U 45

This is the game I have the most interest in of the two.  The Patriots offense will be the chalk this week but if you can throw in a play or two to separate yourself from the field then they are still in play.  I do want exposure to both QBs in this game.  Tom Brady is going to be the most owned QB and I am guessing he will be around 50% owned by the field.  I am not sure what percent I want of Brady myself but I can see me being near the field with maybe 40-50% of my LUs having him in at QB.  I want to be a little over weight on Blake Bortles this week and I am projecting him to be around 20% owned so I will most likely aim for around 30% exposure myself.  I think the Patriots will try to stop Leonard Fournette in this game and force Bortles to try to beat them.  I don’t really see Bortles getting the win but at only a 5k price tag on DraftKings I think he is the best point per dollar option at QB this weekend.  The Jaguars should be down in this game and Bortles should have some easy junk time stats to put up late in the game.  Also, we have seen Bortles running more in these playoffs so I like the floor that comes with him at his low price.

Because the Patriots should have 3 RBs active for this game I expect Fournette to be the highest owned RB in this game.  As I mentioned earlier, I think the Patriots try to shut down Fournette and force the Jags to beat them through the air so for this reason I will be underweight to the field and possibly fade him completely.  Everyone just saw Fournette put up big numbers against the Steelers last weekend and will be chasing those points so I think we could see him reach close to 50% owned which seems pretty crazy to me.  If I fade Fournette completely and he busts that will kill those 50% of lineups and give me a good shot at being towards the top of a GPP leaderboard.  TJ Yeldon is the sneaky low owned play that I would rather pivot to and hope that Bortles uses him while the Jags play catch up.  We have seen TJ have a role in these playoffs and if the Jags are playing from behind I expect him to be even more involved and he is only 4.2k on DK so he allows you to fit in other expensive players.  My favorite RB play on the Pats side of the ball might actually be James White if they do have 3 active RBs.  The way to attack the Jags is with the RBs and the TEs so I think Brady will use White a decent amount in the passing game and he should be half as owned as Dion Lewis who is priced at 8.1k this week.  I still have interest in Lewis because he should have a heavy role in this game but I will likely to underweight to the field and I am projecting him to be near 40% owned this week.   I am a little worried how Rex Burkhead will be used but he will be the lowest owned of these 3 Pats RBs so for that reason alone I want some exposure to him.  He could be the low owned sneaky Pats player that can help win a GPP so I will have him stacked with Brady in a few LUs.  I will have a lot of game stacks for this Jags/Pats game and I think you can pair the QBs with their RBs if you want to be a little contrarian in that way.

I will personally have 100% Rob Gronkowski this week.  I will start every lineup with him and a DST from the next game and I will go from there while building my LUs.  Gronk has been dominant in the playoffs in his career and has scored a TD in the last 6 playoff games he has played in.  He will be over 50% owned this week but if I have him in 100% of my lineups it  gives me more chances to hit the right combo if he does have a big game.  I have zero interest in the TEs on the Jags but I will have a lot of exposure to their WRs.  At 3.9k, Dede Westbrook will be my most owned WR from this game.  He should see a good amount of targets and I think he is going to give the Jags the best chance at scoring against this Patriots defense.  Marqise Lee is the other Jags WR I want in a decent amount of lineups.  I think Lee and Westbrook will see the most targets for the Jags WRs this week and I want them stacked with Bortles in a few LUs and hope that he can throw a TD to both of them while padding their stats during junk time if there is any.  Keelan Cole and Allen Hurns will also most likely make my player pool but I will have much less exposure to them and just want them in my game stacks.  The Patriots WRs will all make my player pool as well even though the Jags defense has been great against opposing WRs this year.  I had a full fade on Brandin Cooks last week but this week he had his salary lowered to 6.1k so now he is in play and is my favorite Pats WR this week.  Cooks has the speed to get behind this Jags defense and he could break out for a long TD or two and become a must play if that is the case.  Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola will also be in a good amount of my lineups because they are likely to see more targets than Cooks so with the full point PPR in DK I think they will be good plays in my game stacks whether I use Brady or Bortles at QB.  Amendola had a monster game last week so I expect his ownership to grow this week which makes me favor Hogan more than him if I had to choose between the two of them.

Since I am so heavy on both of these offenses I have no interest in the DSTs and I expect the Pats DST to be the highest owned on the slate so fading them with separate me from a good size of the field in tourneys.

 

 

Vikings (-3) vs Eagles                                                              O/U 39

I have much less to say about this game because the majority of my offensive plays will be from the previous game and I am going to put the Vikings DST in 100% of my lineups.  I will plug in Gronk + Vikings DST in every single one of my LUs and pray that they are the best plays at their positions and I have a lot of chances at hitting the correct combo to win a GPP.  Because I will have 100% of the Vikings DST I think I will personally fade every Eagles player in this game and hope the Vikings crush them.

The Eagles have too many players to spread the ball around with and I don’t want to invest in any of them hoping something changes this week and one certain player gets a way higher usage than usual.  Zach Ertz would be the guy I would want the most but he burned me pretty hard last week so I will fade him as well this week.  The only other guy I would consider in my player pool is Chris Clement at 3.1k.  I think the Eagles will be playing from behind so that should mean their 3rd down back should see some more targets late in the game playing catchup and at that low salary you can afford any of the high priced Patriots players you want.

The Vikings side of the ball does interest me and I can see me having a few Vikings “onslaught” teams where I use 4 offensive players paired with their DST and will be rooting for a blowout so they have a chance at hitting big.  My favorite play from the Vikings offense is Stefon Diggs.  Diggs will come into this game very hyped up after that crazy last play versus the Saints that got the Vikings into this game.  Maybe Case Keenum trusts him even more after that catch as well and feeds him more here because of it.  I want 20-25% of my LUs to have Keenum and I will have Diggs in every one of them.  Adam Thielen has been quiet lately and I think he makes for a good pay up play this week as well so pairing Keenum with Diggs and Thielen will be the way to go if you want to take Keenum route.  If I am using Brady or Bortles in my LUs then I will be looking to get Latavius Murray and/or Jerick McKinnon in my lineup at the RB or Flex position.  I think both these RBs have a good shot at having a good game and should both have pretty big roles.  If the Vikings are going to be in the lead then I would expect Murray to be getting more carries and he could be the guy to pair with the Vikings DST.  However, the Eagles were 2nd in the league this year against opposing RBs so maybe going with McKinnon and hoping he has a big role in the passing game and steals a TD from Murray would be the way to go.  I am not sure who will have the bigger game so I want to get my exposure to both and may have them in the same lineup together paired with their DST.  The last play for me to mention in this game is Kyle Rudolph.  I won’t have much exposure to Rudolph myself because I am all in on Gronk but I do want to use them together in a few LUs and roll out 2 TEs to be different in these big GPPs.  I think this Vikings team is legit and will be placing a bet on them this week to be Super Bowl winners.  If the Vikings can get past this game then they will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl and have a true home field advantage against the Pats or the Jags.  If that happens then their odds will be much lower to win next week then they are now so I think now is the time to bet them if you think they can get a ring this year.  I will go out on a limb here and predict that the Vikings beat the Eagles 31-10 so that is why I will be fading the Eagles players and going 100% on the Vikings DST on this slate.

Be sure to remember that you’ll need to have some low owned plays in your LUs this week if you want to take down a GPP.  If you don’t agree with me and want to use the Eagles players they will be lower owned than the other teams so don’t be afraid to go with your gut.  I cannot predict the future so I could very well be wrong in my thoughts on that game but I am willing to get burned on DK if I am.  What you do with your money is up to you these are just my thoughts on this slate and I do hope to see a lot of DFS Army names at the top of the leaderboards this week whether I am up there with you or now.  Good luck this weekend and enjoy the last two game slate of the year!