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Roster Construction
The way this slate sets up, you will first need to handicap the Man City/Newcastle matchup. Most people generally fade the late game because rosters are not out at the time of setting your lineups initially and they have things to do on a Saturday morning. Well, this week they will be forced to take this game unless they are going off the board a bit. I don’t think that is a smart thing to do, though. Newcastle has struggled mightily lately. Differentiate elsewhere. It isn’t often that the books decline to offer odds on team goals, but that isn’t an option this week.
After you decide how many City players you want to roster you can go on from there. There are juicy matchups to round out your roster with and we can get into those games and the best plays right now!
West Ham v Bournemouth
I want to start the real analysis with one of my favorite games on the slate. Let’s try this on for size. In their last 4 games, West Ham has conceded the most shots in the box and Bournemouth has taken the most shots in the box. West Ham has been the most accurate team over that same span and also leads in goal conversion. Bournemouth is conceding an unhealthy 16.28% while West Ham is conceding at 7.89%. So what is this telling us? It says that there could be quite the possession for Bournemouth and West Ham should make the most of their opportunities.
Starting with West Ham, I expect to see them in the 3-5-1-1 formation again, if Andre Ayew does not pass his late fitness test. This makes me like Manuel Lanzini a lot. I think he works fine in any format. This formation would require a lot from him on the defensive end and pushing the counter-attack. He has 10 interceptions, 5 corners, and 9 crosses in the last 4 gameweeks. He will also get set pieces so there is that too. I don’t hate pairing him up with Marko Arnautovic in GPP, either. Marko continues to perform and did brace last time they met. Bournemouth also has conceded 9 goals to forwards on the road.
On the Bournemouth side of things, a lot of people will likely go to Callum Wilson, and he has been solid as of late, but I am actually looking towards Ryan Fraser for GPP. West ham has been known to give up goals to forwards but at home, they are actually very generous to midfielders. Fraser has been stellar lately and has been used quite a bit in the box. If you are struggling for forwards that fit your cash roster with all the up-priced mids, I am perfectly fine going down to Wilson. For GPP, I will look elsewhere.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Arsenal is in a weird state right now. There are tons of rumors surrounding them but they are playing at home and I don’t expect that it will affect them. The word is that Sanchez will not feature in this match due to the rumors and, considering recent events, it may make Arsenal a little unpredictable. They should also be getting Ozil and Kolasinac back. With all of this, I would say a safe cash play is Mesut Ozil (if he starts) or Shkodran Mustafi (FD only). Mustafi has been all over the stat sheet lately and Ozil will need to actually facilitate the offense. I expect Welbeck to take Sanchez’s spot for now and that leaves Ozil to feed 2 strikers.
Bakary Sako has provided crazy value when he starts and his price tag is cheap. Personally, I would rather not chase his production but without the lineups, you should keep him on your radar. Arsenal has trouble with forwards. He will carry a high ownership.
Best of the Rest
This is the part of the show where we highlight some cash plays for the games we didn’t really get a chance to talk about or the best cash plays left on the slate.
- Laurent Depoitre, HUD – There isn’t too much in the way of cash forwards on this slate outside of the above-mentioned footballers, so I will turn to a forward against a team who allows the most adjusted shots to forwards in all of the premiership (home or away). You bet I will have shares.
- Marc Albrighton, LEI – He crosses a lot from open play and is cheaper exposure to the Leicester attack, while still being heavily involved.
- Aleksander Dragovic, LEI – He is cheap! It is really the biggest thing I can say about him but he usually does enough to bring cash value for his price. He shouldn’t hurt you.
Between the Sticks
Here are my choices for GPP Goalkeeper. If you are a regular reader of mine, then you know I like going for the saves.
- Jordan Pickford, EVE – Everton gives up a lot of shots and West Brom takes their fair share. This slate could see a decent number of goals but I don’t think this match falls into that category. Cash play.
- Nick Pope, BUR – Burnley allows a fair share of shots and they have a solid defense. Man U should get the lion share of the possession and probably the victory but the save upside is there for Pope. Any format.
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- Adrian, WHU – I see a lot of shots coming his way, if West Ham can stay disciplined and keep up their recent level of defense, he could have a wondrous day. GPP Only.
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