The theory behind this is based on @choppodong’s Bottom Up line-up building videos, which if you haven’t watched you really should. You can find them here ( YouTube ). For more detailed versions, join dfsarmy.com‘s VIP program and gain full access.
I am not one of the coaches but am really just sharing my own research and trying and give back to this community which has helped me out. This is focused on cash games on DK.
Remember, for value we are looking for players hitting about .6 points or more per $1000 in price in at least 6 of their last 10 games, as well as being lower on the cost scale. This isn’t to say there aren’t value players at higher cost, but the purpose of this article is to help you find those cheaper plays that leave you lot of cap room to fit in those studs you want. Team stats are coming from this great new tool the Army is putting out, it can be found here ( link to new chart).
Defense
There are a number of guys who are potential value plays on Defense. The floor for D is on blocked shots and shots taken.
Brayden McNabb Vegas Golden Knights ( vs St Louis Blues)- McNabb has been very consistent lately, hitting value in 9 of his last 10 games. At a cost of only 3100, he is averaging 3.1 DK pts / game, with an avg of 2.2 just from shots and blocked shots. While he is on the first pairing he doesn’t get powerplay time. The Golden Knights have won 8 in a row, but their scoring overall has been down. The Blues have been allowing more goals of late. All of this when combined with McNabb’s floor makes him a great value play tonight. The Blues are favored, but the implied goal differential is only .12 between the teams.
Andy Green New Jersey Devils ( vs Dallas Stars) Green has been averaging 2.7 (2.1 from shots and blocked shots) DK pts/game, and comes with a cost of 3100. He has hit value in 8 of his last 10 games. The Devils scoring is up of late, while they have been allowing less goals. Dallas is also allowing less goals so this would seem to project as a low scoring affair, though there should still be opportunities for blocked shots, especially against the Dallas offense. Dallas is favored with an over/under of 5.5. Don’t be surprised to see this go under, which could make those blocked and taken shots more crucial for you.
Eric Johnson Colorado Avalanche ( vs Columbus Blue Jackets). Johnson is the highest priced D on this list at 5400. However he has been averaging 4.3 Dk points / game, with 2.8 of those from shots and blocked shots. He has been very active of late and putting up great numbers. He has hit value in 6 of his last 10, so if you find you have a little extra money at the end, you may want to upgrade to Johnson from a lower priced D man.
Other players to consider.
Gudas (Phi) Manning (Phi) Zadorov ( Col) Nemeth ( Col) Giordano ( Cal).
Forwards tend to rely more on real scoring and shots taken and less on blocked shots for DK pts. They also in general tend to come with higher costs and more variance then D men so we find less consistent value plays.
Centre
Derek Stepan Arizona Coyotes ( Nashville Predators) Stepan comes in at 4900,while averaging 3.4 Dk pts per game. The Yotes scoring has been up almost 2 full goals a game lately. The Preds have been struggling of late, and allowing over a full goal a game more the last 3 weeks compared to their season average. This combination makes Stepan a top choice value play at Centre tonight. Stepan also plays on the first power play unit adding to his potential.
Derek Ryan Carolina Hurricanes ( vs Pittsburgh Penguins) While Ryan would appear to be the top pick, coming in at only $3400, and avg of 3.1 DK pts per game, and hitting value more often than Stepan, the combination of the Canes scoring less, and the Penguins giving up less make him a riskier play in my mind. He does get second unit power play time.
Other players to consider: Soderberg ( Col) and O’Reily (Buf)
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Wingers
Mikko Rantenen Colorado Avalanche (vs Columbus Blue Jackets). As mentioned earlier, the Av’s scoring is down recently, as is the goals against for Columbus, which normally might make us shy away from Rantenen. However he is averaging 4.5 Dk points per game, hitting value in 8 of his last 10. Even with a cost of $5700, that kind of consistency is hard to ignore. He also is playing alongside Nathan McKinnon who has been really hot lately, both on regular shifts and the first unit power play.
Tyler Johnson Tampa Bay Lightning ( vs Montreal Canadians) Johnson has the same price point and avg as Rantenen, but has only hit value in 6 out of 10. Both Tampa’s scoring and Montreal’s goals against are down a touch. Those facts may make you look elsewhere, but if you want a cheaper piece of the Tampa offense than their top line, Johnson isn’t a bad way to go.
Kevin Lablanc San Jose Sharks ( vs Toronto Maple Leafs) Both the Sharks goals for and the Leafs goals against are pretty close to seasonal norms. The true value for Lablanc is he is averaging 3.4 DK pts his last ten, with a cost of only $3400. 1 pt per thousand is worth looking at on any slate.
Kyle Okposo Buffalo Sabers ( vs Minnesota Wild). Okposo will cost you $4100, while averaging 3.5 pts per game, and hitting value in 6 out of 10 games, the Sabers scoring is up and Okposo gets first unit power play time. That is the good news. The bad news is they are the biggest underdog on the slate, with the lowest implied total as well, and they are playing on the road. Does the good out weight the bad? Probably not, but the potential value is there.
Other players to consider: Tuch ( VGK) Smith (VGK) Aho ( Car)
Quick GPP thoughts…
Centers like Thorton ( SJ) and Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) along with wingers Tkachuk ( CGY) and Bjorkstrand (CLB) are all players who just missed out making this list, hitting value in 5 of their last 10. This means they had a few bigger games and more lower games, but could be good places to start for a GPP or hybrid kind of game tonight.