NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and fantasy. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 10-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
WPG 1: Laine, Connor, Wheeler – Late night hammer! San Jose has been sneaky bad on defense the last few weeks and this line is still producing at a high level – albeit not to the extent they were a few weeks ago. They’ll be able to take advantage of the Sharks weak defense on the top two lines.
Boston 1: Pastrnak, Marchand, Bergeron – They are one of the hottest lines in the game. You guys know the drill. I write them up just about every time they are on the slate and that won’t stop today. Get at least two of them in your cash lineups.
EDM 1: McDavid, Maroon. Cagguila – The top two lines for EDM have been producing lately and Buffalo has been a mess defensively. They only gave up one to CGY last night, so I see them regressing a bit tonight.
Honorable Mentions: PHI 1, STL 1/2, DAL 1, VGK 1/2, ANA 1, PIT 2, NSH 1, FLA 1
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
I’m paying up at forward tonight, so I’m going to dig for the value at defense tonight.
Edler: Just like the Bruins top line, you are probably sick of reading my write-ups about them. That’s where my cash games begin tonight.
Petry: With the Hamburglar probable to start for the Avs tonight, I like the Canadiens for some value plays. Petry is on the PP and shares ice time with almost every key player on Montreal. He is very consistent and should continue his production tonight.
Vlasic: HA! I didn’t write up Burns today (Although he is a solid play too). For significantly less money you will get similar production. I’m not big on SJ tonight but I do like Vlasic as a one off.
Honorable Mentions: Nurse, Provorov, Faulk,, Scandella, Klingberg, Johns, Jones, Gostisbehere, Pesce
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Talbot: He is a heavy Vegas favorite going against the second worst offense in the league over the last three weeks in terms of CF/60. The lack of shots faced may lower his ceiling but with Buffalo on a B2B this seems like a prime spot for everything Edmonton.
Hutton: Another massive favorite looking to rebound from his dud the other night when he was 60% owned in cash games. Ottawa had been heating up but the loss of Stone for at least this game will give a huge edge to the Blues. Ottawa is #19 in CF/60 over the last three weeks – significantly better than they’ve been most of the season so his ceiling rises with the increase in shots. If Allen starts, he becomes GPP only. Hutton is cash safe.
Rask: I love the real life player, hate the DFS player, but you can’t argue with the -230 money line. NJ is better offensively than they have been all season. This win is very probable with how great this whole team has been playing. I don’t know how much I trust him for cash but maybe that’s just my cognitive bias.
Honorable Mentions: Gibson, Fleury, Saros, DeSmith
Slack is where the magic happens.
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