NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and fantasy. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 12-game slate. We are back after a long All-Star break. Let’s get to it.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
DAL 1: Seguin, Benn, Radulov – They are they highest scoring line on the slate over the last three games (5 goals) and have been very productive over the last 10 (9). LAK has been very good defensively over the last three weeks – # 5 in CA/60 – but I don’t think they will be able to contain this line the way they have been rolling. Let’s hope the long layoff didn’t kill their mojo.
NYI 2: Barzal, Eberle, Beauvillier – It’s hard to go wrong with any combination of the top two lines from either team in this game. There is a 6.5 O/U that is favoring the over – lot’s of fantasy goodness! This line has been incredibly hot and they are a lot more affordable than the Tavares line. They have actually been more productive than the top line, in CF and GF in both the last 10 and last 3 games.
Pit 2: Malkin, Hornquist, Hagelin – This line has been good over the last 10 games but has cooled off slightly over the last three games. However, SJ has been dreadful on defense over the last three weeks and Pit is primed to take advantage of that with either of their top two lines.
Honorable Mentions: MTL 1, CGY 1, CAR 1-2, BUF 1, BOS 1, VGK 1-2, COL 1, VAN 1 (Boeser with the twins)
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Klingberg – He might be the best offensive-minded defenseman in the league and some crazy how he is still moderately priced. He will fit perfectly with a DAL 1 stack or even with just a piece or two from that line.
Vlasic: Everyone who wants access to SJ tonight will be on Burns and for good reason. However Vlasic is hotter than Burnsy and a whole lot cheaper.
Morrissey: Should take on a much larger role now that Trouba is going to be out for about two months. It remains to be seen if he gets moved up to the PP but either way he will get more ice time and plenty of opportunities to set up the top two lines.
Honorable Mentions: Pulock, Josi, Subban, Edler, Hamuis, Hanifin, Giordano, Hamilton, Letang
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict. Just like a pitcher in baseball, they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Rinne: NSH has been playing well recently, they are a -166 favorite and CHI is the #1 team in CF/60 over the last three weeks. They are only projected to score 2.66 goals tonight, so this is a great spot for Rinne to rack up a ton of saves in a win.
Dubnyk: CBJ’s top two lines are shooting a lot recently but have very little to show for it. Hopefully this streak continues and Dub has a great night again for the Wild.
Hutton: Another one in a really good cash spot. MTL is #9 in CF/60 over the last three weeks and STL is #22 in CA/60 over that same time. STL is a -175 favorite to boot. This is another opportunity for a lot of saves in a win.
Honorable Mentions: Bernier, Fleury, Murray, Khudobin
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!