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POINT GUARDS:
Jeff Teague (MIN vs PHI)
Big fan of the T-Wolves tonight as they are sizeable favorites (opened: -6.5, current: -5) against a Sixers team that isn’t getting much love, mainly because of injuries in their lineup. Teague is always appealing as he plays about 34-38 minutes and could reach epic levels of value (especially on FanDuel with the three-point steals) as PHI commits a league-worst 17.5 turnovers per game. MIN also gets a boost in pace tonight as PHI runs the league’s 4th-fastest.
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN vs WSH)
Averaging 34.2 DKP/33.2 FDP over the last 12 games/since D’Angelo Russell went down. I do like Dinwiddie more for cash games, but I think this matchup and fast tempo could push him beyond a 5x value.
Jarrett Jack / Frank Ntilikina (NYK vs LAL)
LAL is the 5th-best aDvP matchup for point guards on this slate. Jack will get the start tonight, but don’t sleep on Ntilly Ntilly – His minutes are starting to get back up there and LAL commits the 2nd-most turnovers per game (17.2) so those steals would certainly come in handy on FanDuel.
** CAUTION:
Dennis Schroder (ATL @ CLE)
ATL is a huge underdog (+11) tonight, as expected, so I don’t feel the need to pay up for a guy that rarely posts above 5x value.
Lonzo Ball (LAL @ NYK)
I don’t have any doubts that Ball will be a good player someday- after all, a lot of the struggles he is going through are the same ones plenty of other NBA players have gone through. My issue with paying a decent amount for Ball is that Lakers coach Luke Walton has sat him in the fourth quarter regularly; I can’t be forking over that much of my salary cap without knowing whether he’ll be in the game for the final 12 minutes.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
Bradley Beal (WSH @ BKN)
John Wall will likely miss tonight’s game and that gives Beal one last shot to show us massive ROIs in this scenario. BKN runs the 3rd-fastest pace and gets obliterated by every position, so Beal should be a safe play in any format… he has rebounded and exceeded 5x value in two of his last three games.
Kent Bazemore (ATL @ CLE)
CLE is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for shooting guards on tonight’s slate. Baze has always played well vs CLE, but he did drop a dud on the masses in their last meeting. Don’t mind going back to him in this spot.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL @ NYK)
KCP has been one of the most consistent players this season, usually getting about 35 minutes each night while rarely giving us a bad game.
JJ Redick (PHI @ MIN)
Much bigger boost to Redick if Covington and McConnell miss tonight’s game. Regardless, Redick’s matchup against Wiggins is one of the better ones on this slate.
Buddy Hield (SAC vs PHX)
Just keep on picking on PHX with backcourt players. It’s fun.
JR Smith / Kyle Korver (CLE vs ATL)
Late addition to the list – both guys become immediately viable as Dwayne Wade will miss tonight’s game. Korver may be the more intriguing play since he’ll likely get that second-team usage and he is a former member of the Hawks.
** GPP ONLY:
Andrew Wiggins (MIN vs PHI)
PHI is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for shooting guards on tonight’s slate. Wiggins hasn’t provided great returns of late, but he’s still playing about 35 minutes each game and priced under $6000 on FanDuel.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Jimmy Butler (MIN vs PHI)
Butler is more affordable on DraftKings, but I’m not opposed to playing him on FanDuel either. PHI leads the NBA in turnovers and Butler’s sticky hands will certainly be on a few of those. Butler has looked great over the last five games, averaging 46.3 DKP/47.1 FDP.
Otto Porter / Kelly Oubre Jr (WSH @ BKN)
BKN is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for small forwards on today’s slate. Porter is the main attraction in this discussion, but it’s worth noting that Oubre’s price has dropped drastically from a few weeks ago when he was doing some major damage.
Courtney Lee (NYK vs LAL)
I’ll continue going back to the well while Hardaway is out of the Knicks lineup. Lee has dropped two uncharacteristic duds in recent memory, but this matchup vs LAL is one of the best on the board.
** ON THE FENCE:
LeBron James (CLE vs ATL)
We’ve got a discussion about LeBron now, it’s not an automatic plug-and-play on all formats. I think he’s perfect for cash games because ATL is a team we always want to attack.
Howevahhhhh, from a GPP vantage point, that price tag on FanDuel is now up to $12,600. LeBron has posted FDP totals of 54.5 and 58.2 vs ATL this season, and those games were as close as can be… I don’t see it being that way for the third-straight time. It also looks like Love and Thompson will be back in the Cavs lineup, so some of those mega numbers could certainly decline.
** PAY UP TO BE CONTRARIAN:
TJ Warren (PHX @ SAC)
Warren becomes a lot more appealing (and expensive) with Devin Booker still on the shelf. The matchup vs SAC isn’t necessarily a favorable one, but it’s also not one that I’m afraid to place Warren in. Using him tonight is no different than any other night- with low ownership and everything included, Warren could certainly fall below expectations, but he also has rare GPP-winning upside.
POWER FORWARDS:
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK vs LAL)
LAL is the 4th-best aDvP matchup for power forwards on tonight’s slate. Porzingis has had a rough fantasy season, but he showed vast improvement on Sunday (when no one was paying attention) vs ATL, going for 55.6 FDP.
Tobias Harris (DET vs DEN)
DEN is the 2nd-best matchup for power forwards this season and Harris has been right around salary-based expectations in three of his last five games.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN vs WSH)
Not in love with RHJ’s price but we can afford to pay up for a guy that has consistently reached 5x value since Trevor Booker has moved on from Brooklyn.
** CONDITIONAL PLAYS:
Zach Randolph (SAC vs PHX)
PHX is the best aDvP matchup for power forwards this season. Howevahhhhh, we have to be aware of the availability of Willie Cauley-Stein – if he plays tonight, Z-Bo’s inflated price tag just doesn’t seem all that appealing while he’s playing about 28 minutes.
Dario Saric (PHI @ MIN)
While Embiid is likely to play tonight, Covington and McConnell do not appear to be suiting up. This could be great news for Saric, who has already been playing about 30-34 minutes and producing well with whoever is in the lineup.
** ON THE FENCE:
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA @ DAL)
LMA crushed the Mavs in both meetings this season, but Kawhi’s return to the lineup should have an impact. Howevahhhhh, I expect Leonard to only play about 20-25 minutes tonight, and that still leaves some time for LMA to do his thing. I don’t feel right about going with LMA, but I also won’t be terribly surprised if he goes off… just because of this matchup.
CENTERS:
Joel Embiid (PHI @ MIN)
Embiid is scheduled to play tonight and draws himself a glorious matchup against Towns, who has been one of the worst defenders at the center position.
Andre Drummond (DET vs DEN)
DEN has been getting crushed down low since Jokic has been out of the lineup. Let’s continue to smash on their faces.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN vs PHI)
Let’s continue with the T-Wolves love affair… PHI is the 5th-best aDvP matchup for centers on tonight’s slate and Towns has gone for 50+ FDP in each of the last two games.
Kevin Love (CLE vs ATL)
Love is scheduled to return tonight, and I don’t mind using him right off the bat vs ATL unless we get word of limitations. He’s consistently been reaching value or falling somewhere near it.
Marcin Gortat (WSH @ BKN)
BKN is already the best aDvP matchup for centers this season, but if Jahlil Okafor ends up playing a lot that is great for Gortat. The biggest knock on Okafor throughout his NBA career has been the effort and execution on the defensive end- we’ll be reminded of that at some point tonight.