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POINT GUARDS:
Elfrid Payton / DJ Augustine (ORL vs DEN)
Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac are all out for the Magic so that means there is plenty of added responsibility on the offensive end. It starts to get interesting when we bring Augustine into the discussion because he could play big minutes at point guard while Elf plays at the two. I like both parties a lot and it would be a very sneaky move to use both in GPPs.
Kemba Walker (CHA vs CHI)
Kris Dunn (CHI @ CHA)
Both teams have been brutal against the point guard position this season so it’s not a terrible idea to get a little ping-pong going here. Kemba dropped a cool 60.7 FDP in the first meeting between the two teams while Dunn went for 46.5 FDP.
Darren Collison (IND vs CLE)
Collison dropped 45 FDP in the previous matchup vs CLE this season and opposing backcourts have continuously torched them as well.
** MATCHUP-BASED:
Jamal Murray / Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN @ ORL)
ORL is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for point guards
Eric Bledsoe (MIL vs DAL)
DAL is the 4th-best aDvP matchup for point guards.
** CAUTION:
Rajon Rondo (NO vs SAC)
If Anthony Davis returns to the Pelicans lineup I want no part of Rondo. I have been screaming about this situation all season- Rondo just doesn’t accumulate as many stats when AD and Boogie are on the court with him at the same time.
Reggie Jackson (DET vs GS)
If Shaun Livingston draws the start at point guard, I want no part of Jackson. Livingston is a very long defender (12th in DRPM out of 92 point guards) that can create problems for his opponent and it’s not like Jackson has a ton of massive upside either.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
Victor Oladipo (IND vs CLE)
IND opened as a small underdog in this game so that makes me hopeful about their outlook. CLE has been crushed by opposing backcourts all season, and it’s basically a foregone strategic conclusion to attack them. The only issue I have with Oladipo is his price tag- if you can afford him, I love the move, but if you’re twisting and turning your lineup to fit Oladipo in, I would leave him out of the mix.
Danny Green (SA vs BOS)
Since Kyle Anderson has been out of the lineup Green has brought a gun to the knife fight, posting FDP totals of 33.6 (vs MIA) and 29.7 (vs DET). Kawhi Leonard is nearing a return to the team, so this is one of Green’s last chances to make his plea for future minutes and touches.
** MATCHUP-BASED:
Buddy Hield / Garrett Temple (SAC @ NO)
NO is the best aDvP matchup for shooting guards. Hield, especially, is appealing here as he’s posted upwards of 8-9x value in each of the last two games. Don’t forget that he was drafted by the Pelicans and then later flipped to the Kings in the Boogie deal.
Nicolas Batum (CHA vs CHI)
CHI is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for shooting guards. Batum is still underpriced, and he’s played 35 minutes in each of the Hornets last three games.
** CAUTION:
Jrue Holiday (NO vs SAC)
This only becomes a cautionary tale if AD is back for the Pelicans tonight. It looks likely that AD will be in and that certainly limits the massive upside of Holiday, who has seen his price tag spiked tremendously.
SMALL FORWARDS:
LeBron James (CLE @ IND)
IND has no one besides Lance Stephenson that can hang with LeBron, who has posted some great numbers in his last six meetings vs IND, playoffs included.
Kevin Durant (GS @ DET)
DET is the 7th-best aDvP matchup (3rd-best on tonight’s slate) for small forwards. Avery Bradley should be matched up with Klay Thompson for most of the night, and that will likely create more shot attempts for KD. I’m not in love with the price increase KD received, but that just moves him down the list a tad.
JaKarr Sampson (SAC @ NO)
The direct beneficiary of Willie Cauley-Stein being injured, Sampson has now played 24 and 32 minutes in each of the last two games. Sampson can play minutes at power forward, which should definitely come in handy if AD does play tonight.
Rudy Gay (SA vs BOS)
Gay sees the most minutes on the Spurs with Kyle Anderson off the court – in each of the two games since he has posted 36 FDP.
** MATCHUP-BASED:
Jonathan Simmons (ORL vs DEN)
DEN is the 5th-best aDvP matchup (2nd-best on tonight’s slate) for small forwards. Simmons will be one of the Magic players to see increased touches on the offensive end and he has already played at least 37 minutes in three of the last four games.
Wilson Chandler (DEN @ ORL)
I’d love to be able to trust Chandler in this spot, but it’s only his third game since returning from injury; he played 24 and 27 minutes in each of the first two. ORL is best matchup for small forwards. Part of the reason for that is the man listed above, Simmons, who ranks dead-last in DRPM out of 446 NBA players.
POWER FORWARDS:
Aaron Gordon (ORL vs DEN)
DEN is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup (tops on tonight’s slate) for power forwards. AG00 will have more offensive responsibilities on his plate, because of all the injuries to the Magic, and we know the potential for massive numbers is dangling right over our heads.
Zach Randolph (SAC @ NO)
The Kings have always deployed Z-Bo for big minutes against big bruising centers this season; Willie Cauley-Stein did not even make this trip with the Kings and that’s just utmost verification that Z-Bo is in line for a big workload. He has played at least 30 minutes five times over the last seven games and only bottomed out at 32 FDP in those five instances.
Marvin Williams (CHA vs CHI)
CHI is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup (2nd-best on this slate) for power forwards. Oh, but wait, there’s more good news… The Hornets frontcourt was hit with two big injuries (Kaminsky and Zeller) so this is going to mean yuuuuuuuge minutes and production for Marv at a truly-discounted price. It’s gonna be… tremendous.
Kenneth Faried / Trey Lyles (DEN @ ORL)
ORL has been a great matchup for power forwards consistently over the last few years, mainly because Gordon is a terrible defender. I think both guys are in play here, but Keith brought up a great point on today’s pod that Lyles has excelled more often in the up-tempo paced play like we’ll see tonight in Orlando.
CENTERS:
* DeMarcus Cousins (NO vs SAC)
Boogie has had a week full of narratives, but he gets his biggest one tonight against the only NBA team he had ever known before last season. The extra caveat… it’s Boogie Bobblehead Night!!! Don’t worry too much about the anticipated return of AD- Boogie still gets the 3rd-best aDvP matchup (2nd-best on tonight’s slate) for a center going up against the Kings.
Nikola Vucevic (ORL vs DEN)
With all the injuries to the Magic, it’s inevitable for Vuc to see a huge boost in the offense… especially against a Nuggets team that is missing their best rim-protector.
Kevin Love (CLE @ IND)
IND is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup (2nd-best on tonight’s slate) for centers. Love, who has posted at least 35 FDP in five-straight games, is a great way to get your Cavs exposure if you can’t afford LeBron.