Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I mean back when grampa played with leather helmets and no face mask to grab. The last vestiges of the Wishbone were finally eradicated somewhere in the 1980s from the Big8 and Southwest conferences, later rebranded the Big12.
The wishbone is a powerhouse formation designed for ground and pound, move the chains, bend over here it comes and we are telling you about it type football. However, within that formation came a ton of options, reads, cutbacks, and even some passing plays. Like DFS, the wishbone was the chalk, but from the wishbone evolved a lot of contrarian plays. Now, that your history is current, and you undoubtedly see where I’m going with this article, let’s “dive” in. (Hopefully, some of you got that last little pun there.)
By the way, my name is @Choppodong (give me a follow out on Twitter) and I am a contributor and coach for the DFS Army. We don’t build lineups for you. Instead, we teach you how to build your own fundamentally competitive lineups. If you are the type of player that takes pride in his/her research, you might be just who we are looking for. In fact, I have another few hundred buddies inside just waiting to meet another player that can bring yet another unique perspective to the group. There is nothing quite like a few hundred like-minded DFSers chatting throughout the week and getting better through groupthink. I promise nothing else you’ve experienced compares.
Week 13 in Review
We are going to save this for a bit being pressed for time this week. I will try and get this up tomorrow, but can’t make the guarantee. This time of year my day job really kicks my ass.
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You have likely seen enough winning in the videos and scrolling screenshots. I will provide you two links if you like deconstructing winning lineups to see what you can’t glean from their wisdom. The first is Deconstructing a DFS Army Member’s $150,000 Winning Lineup on Fanduel. The other is Deconstructing the KOTB qualifier on Draftkings. Both used set gameplans to craft their lineups leading them to victory.
Let’s jump right into week 14!!
Week 14 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
A large spread often indicates the favored team will be winning by a comfortable margin as the game nears the end. We can use this to predict a running back’s usage in the 4th quarter, or even earlier. A high implied total can indicate several touchdowns to be spread around amongst the key players. And, when both teams have a high implied total, but the spread is small, it can indicate a possible shootout with the offenses just going back and forth allowing our DFS NFL players to feast on points like Amazon piranhas surrounding a capybara. Generally speaking, we are attracted to the green and leery of the red in this graphic.
Watch: GPP vs Cash Lineup Building
NFL Week 14 Game Spotlights
NOS @ ATL
Right off the hop we get some shootout potential on paper. We all know by now to key on the Saints’ RBs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, but there are still a couple GPP worthy receivers. On the ATL side, you might look to the receivers over the RB committee of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, but it’s not like the NOS defense is some pushover. Being the second meeting between division rivals, we might see a lower scoring game than is predicted. Tough call for the Thursday slates because it could go off. However, if you trust it won’t, you can easily fade this and let all the “Thursday Mooks” overplay their hands while you roster better options. Should you be right in this one being tough sledding, you have a huge advantage on the week.
OAK @ KCC
Another rivalry game, but neither defense has been good. This one might have a better shot at hitting the over. With play calling duties delegated, Andy Reid’s Chiefs might actually take advantage of the Raiders. Everyone is wondering about Kareem Hunt. While I don’t think things are the same this time around, Hunt destroyed OAK in their first meeting and makes for an interesting GPP play this week. We also know the Raiders typically don’t guard TEs well, which leads us right to Travis Kelce. Leaning on the OAK side, we know the Chiefs have showed horrid defense for most of the season. It seems points will be easy to come by. Many folks will key on this game in some fashion.
PHI @ LAR
Maybe not a divisional game for these two, but certainly a tough test for both. Both high powered offenses facing off in this one. Both offenses are also rather balanced in their attacks. That fact makes it difficult to predict the production. Both QBs are having great years, both running games are solid (albeit Gurley is the franchise and PHI uses a 37 headed monster of RBs and anyone that wants to suit up that day), and the receiving corps can do damage, too. My best advice is to make a few lineups and spin several around pieces of this game. From there you can sit back and know you will likely hit at least something. Our Domination Station optimization tool is perfect for this approach, and has a link to it’s tutorial below.
You know, the world of DFS NFL is heading towards computer algorithms and optimizers. If you aren’t using one, you are now at a disadvantage in certain contests. I want to show you ours through a tutorial video we put together. DFS Army has invested heavily in giving you not only the coaching to be great, but also the tools, stats, content, and even the optimizer. Fully customizable, the Domination Station (click link for tutorial video) has produced big wins in every sport due to our own Army projection system. From there, you can plug in a few players you like or simply let the optimizer run you off 150 lineups. The choice is completely yours as to how you run this dragster of a computer algorithm set up to propel you across any finish line. To unlock this beautiful piece of machinery, use the coupon code CHOP when you sign up. CHOP gives you a 20% discount for the life of your membership no matter what our rates do in the future. You are locked in at your original price!!
I hope you took the time to read the deconstruction articles of our members’ bigger wins this year. NBA is no different. The Army is for real, and it’s serving notice all over the DFS industry. Follow this link right now and start the VIP process immediately……. DFS ARMY VIP.
Chop’s NFL Chalk Talk
Click here to see how I build most of my NFL lineups in 30 min or less….“Bottom Up” Lineup Building Advice
QB – Usually a rather spread out position for ownership, it’s difficult to find the true chalk here. With such an even point distribution across most of the position, the choices are just so wide open most weeks.
Alex Smith – The former game manager showed you what happens when appropriate plays are called for his skillset. I can’t believe Andy Reid loses sight of such things every stinking year, but he does. At least he came to his senses and passed off those duties for now. As a result, Alex is coming off his 4th 300 yard game of the year (he’s never had 2 in a year before) and his 4th game with at least 3 TDs. Now, he draws a bottom ranked defense when it comes to allowing points to opposing QBs, and he gets them at home. With the slumping Hunt, we can likely lean on Smith this week again.
Jared Goff – If I have to give you another choice for the non-Monday slate, it would be Goff. His matchup isn’t the best, but he has been outstanding for a large portion of the year. Since his bye week, he has thrown for 300+ in 3 of the 5 games. He also carries an 11:2 TD to INT ratio since the bye week. A steady source of points, Goff devalues Gurley a bit and the price is high, but I’m more comfortable with him than some of the scrubs on this slate. If I could give you my true 2nd pick of the week, it would be Tom Brady playing on the Monday Night game as a huge potential hammer play. Kick that one around in your noggin if you play larger slates spanning multiple days. People won’t forget about Brady, but he might is simply in a great spot this week.
RB – While I like to assume Leveon Bell is a standard chalk play, he hasn’t been as consistent this year. Let’s talk about some others most weeks.
Leveon Bell – Ha…..fooled you! We FINALLY have some consistency out of LevBell. Two weeks in a row over 20 points for the first time since weeks 6 and 7, and surprisingly, the first time with back to back 25+ weeks all year. BAL is not good against the run this year, and we know it’s going to take a balanced attack for PIT to win this rivalry game based on typical AFC North games late in the year. Load him up. Everyone else will be, too, but it’s correct to start here this week. Even at this price, LevBell is still the top “value option” on the entire slate of any position. Value isn’t always simply the cheapest play you can find.
Lamar Miller – Don’t look now, but Miller is producing……and quietly. For $6600 on FD, you are getting a 3 down back used in the red zone facing the league’s worst defense vs the run. Sign me up for a few shares of that please. In case you don’t believe me, look back at his numbers since the bye week. 20 touches in 4 of the 6, 4 TDs, and what looks to be a current hard floor of 13 points. Before you scoff at 13 points, I want to remind you that for $6600, that’s right on the nose with upside for more. (I also don’t mind the Jamal Williams well for the same price. I’ll go back for more again without guilt.)
WR – On FanDuel, you should be focusing on touchdowns and red zone work. On DraftKings, we can favor reception volume more.
Keenan Allen – I mention him here not because he’s chalk, but because he’s in a great spot to do damage this week. I also mention him so people will look his way. Allen often falls down the ownership ranks due to his salary. He kind of gets lost in the shuffle between studs and value plays. This week, he’s a solid value with upside in a spot where, even in cash games, you can use him to get away from the brand names others play and scoop the rewards.
DeAndre Hopkins – Another being a bit overlooked since the Watson injury, but Nuk is still being targeted the same. He also has been scoring at least 15 points in his last 6 games and has scored 15+ in 8 of his past 9. That’s some solid cheese right there. Now, I wouldn’t use him in the same lineup as Lamar Miller, but if I ran two lineups, I’d have one in lineup A and one in lineup B just like I mentioned regarding the PHI/LAR game.
Cooper Kupp – I’m not seeing a lot of value at WR this week at first glance. I’ll have to do some digging because it’s in here. Our VIPs will get the goods with our podcast, Geek’s picks, anything I see as the week progresses, and our slack discussions. For now, though, I’m planning to go very balanced at WR and find my value elsewhere. I’m not a fan of this technique, but every week is different and you have to be willing to change on the fly.
TE – Perhaps the most volatile of the NFL skilled positions, knowing some chalk here becomes quite important.
Travis Kelce – Kelce leads the way here, and honestly competes for value with a lot of the running backs and almost all of the receivers based on his matchup alone. He makes a great cash stack with Alex Smith. Kelce is going to cost you big, so you’ll have to plan around him to get him, but you should in all likelihood be rewarded with a TE near the top in scoring this week.
Ricky Seals-Jones – If I’m paying down past Jack Doyle, I’m going all the way. RSJ has a stead diet of targets; it really only matters how many he converts and if he gets to the paint. If so, you are golden. If not, it still doesn’t kill you. The way ARI has been using him the past 3 weeks, I don’t mind saving money for your receivers in this spot if you aren’t going up to the big guns of Kelce and Ertz.
DST – Another volatile NFL position, but chalk emerges more predictably most weeks.
Jaguars – Week in and week out, the Jags are the play this year. Sure, they may have let a few down last week, but still have a solid floor for a volatile position. What’s not to love? 1st in points allowed, 1st in sacks, 2nd in interceptions, 1st in fumble recoveries, and 1st in return TDs. To say they have been dominating is still understating it for DFS purposes. Unless their bus drives off a cliff on the way to the game, I don’t see any reason we don’t get another solid week from them. It doesn’t seem to matter who they face off against.
Jets – If needing the money, you can’t argue the turnover prone Denver Broncos and their league-worst point giving bonanza weekly. The Jets to spin the #WheelOfWow this week to see how many points they score for you.
K – I don’t cover a lot of kickers. My default criteria for them is very simple, however.
Home teams, high totals, big spreads and the lowest price among all kickers matching these criteria. Don’t overthink kicking. It really can be that simple.
The Fine Print
Disclaimer – As will all my writing, my job is to put you on the popular plays….the sound plays. From there, you can determine for yourself where and when to get off them. I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask Keith, Al, the Geek, Donuts, and our other coaches for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
Come back next week because we will break this all down again. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFSArmy.com to unlock your 20% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.