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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options. In GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 4-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
Col 1: Rantanen, MacKinnon and Landeskog. They are among the highest scoring lines on the slate and PIT does not play a lick of defense, especially the Crosby line. These guys should draw lower ownership because of Pitt’s name recognition.
-Either of the top 2 lines from the Penguins should do well. They aren’t my favorite stack on the board but I will have some exposure to them.
Van 1: D. Sedin, Boeser, Dowd: Again people will fall in love with the team these guys are playing. WPG is a good play tonight, don’t get me wrong, but their top line is dreadful defensively and should allow a ton of shots.
Fla 1: Huberdeau, Trocheck, Bjugstad. There isn’t a huge edge to be found in this game. However Florida’s top line is one of the best scoring lines in the league and Detroit’s top line has struggled suppressing shots.
Honorable Mentions: WPG 1, DET PP, CAR 1, NYI 1-2, WAS 1-2, DAL 1-2
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Hanifin: He has been one of the hottest offensive defensemen lately and ANA is terrible on both ends of the ice. He is very cheap too.
Leddy: Yep, Nick Leddy is on the slate and in my write-up. He’s too good not to put in here and his price hasn’t caught up to his production on FD.
Manson: His name surprised me when I was doing my research. He has been shooting a lot more lately and is in the upper echelon of scoring defensemen. I’m not impressed by many Ducks tonight, but I will have some Josh Manson.
Honorable Mentions: LeTang (too easy to do a write-up on. Just play him if you can afford it), Klingberg, Barrie, Yandle, Orlov, Honka
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Hellebuyck: Highest money line facing the lowest ITT. Vancouver has some sneaky appeal especially in this scenario. The highest money line goalie has been flopping a lot this season. He is the safest on the slate, but I will also have a hedge stack.
Jarry: Still no money line on this one. Pitt should win this one and lock up those 12 FD points. Col isn’t very good offensively, Pitt isn’t very good defensively. So there should be plenty of shot attempts.
Darling: I had to dig to find a third goalie to write up. Darling is GPP only and I have him in here only because ANA is a really bad team and Darling should get the win.
Pick ‘Em
I can’t give away all my plays for free but I do think the best places to attack are VAN/WPG game stack and Carolina. As always, I’ll have my Pick ‘Em notes in Slack closer to lock.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 use promo code PUCK for 20% off the life of your subscription and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!