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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options. In GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 9-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
Boston 1: Bergeron, Pastrnak, Marchand: Arizona is awful. They give up a ton of shots, a ton of goals and with Boston getting all their big guns healthy again they are primed to run away in this game. This line is very expensive, so keep reading for more potential value options to pair them with. These three also play on the top PP unit together if you needed another reason to fire these guys up.
LAK 1: Kopitar, Iafallo, Brown: OTT is terrible, they can’t score, they can’t stop anyone from scoring. ANA rocked them last night. Just stack against OTT any chance you get until further notice. They are THAT bad.
NYI 2: Barzal, Eberle, Ladd These guys are quietly one of the best scoring lines in the NHL, they often get overshadowed by Tavares and company on the top line. But this is an inexpensive line going up against a Pitt team that doesn’t believe in defense. You can’t go wrong with NYI1, the Crosby Line is worse defensively than Malkin’s second line but this line is in a very good spot and a lot more affordable.
Pitt 1-2. Not my favorites, but they are going to have chances in a very high scoring game, I can’t break down a slate without mentioning Crosby.
Honorable Mentions: FLA 1-2, WPG 1-2 (potential game stack), LAK 3, VAN 3, DAL PP1
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Erik Karlsson: He’s seemingly in a good spot, but I’d save him for large field GPP’s. He has the talent to win one for you, but he’s struggling on a really bad team. He’s too rich for my blood tonight.
Brent Burns: Always in play, especially in cash. He has a very safe floor but has not been testing his ceiling yet this season. He gets 20-25 minutes of ice time a night and two shots and a block is a bad night for him (although that doesn’t help with his $7000 salary).
Nick Leddy: Yes please! Since 11/12 he has one game with less than 10 FD points and that was a 9.6. He’s in a great spot and may be the best D-man on the board tonight.
Drew Doughty: He’s very consistent, he rarely gets you below 8-10 FD points and he is coming off a three assist game last time out and going against OTT – too bad you can only stack four guys from a team on FD. LAK is in a great spot and makes for a terrific late night hammer stack.
Honorable Mentions: Derrick Pouliot, Alex Edler, Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Jacob Trouba, Alec Martinez, Mikhail Sergachev – too many more to name. It’s a good night for value defensemen.
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked. Finally, I did well with Holtby and Elliott.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
We have three goalies who are more than -200 favorites tonight Quick, Budaj and Rask. I’m going to have a tough time using anyone but Quick tonight. Ottawa sucks, use everyone against them.
Budaj has the highest money line at -235 and TB should run away from Colorado. He’s the back up but I think he’s pretty safe in this match up.
Rask is the bane of my existence. He always seems to flop in the scenarios that look best on paper. He’s a deep GPP option. Good luck if you use him, I won’t be. He looks good on paper though.
Price should get a win with CGY’s top 2 line’s being defensive liabilities and CGY using a back up goalie.
Pick ‘Em
I can’t give away all my plays for free but I do think the best places to attack are MTL, LAK, Philly, FLA and TB2. Check out the Slack forum for my more in-depth Pick Em notes a little closer to lock.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!!