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Breaking Down Late NFL Line Movement to get the Edge in Daily Fantasy Football – Careful it’s Sharp!

Here is your weekly sharp line analysis for week 14.

SF @ HOU

We got a tight one.  The line opened as HOU -2 and moved to HOU -1.5.  The total has even risen from 42.5 to 46. Sharps loved Houston at the beginning of the week and now seem to have some mild interest in the San Fran side of things.

 

DFS Takeaway: This is a nice validation for your Garappolo usage. This game has a formula we love to see and both offenses get a good boost this week.

GB @ CLE

This is our first major sharp action of the day.  The line opened at GB -4 but immediately came in on the Browns.  The line stands at GB -2.5.  We also have the total headed the wrong way.  It started at 41 and dropped to 39, as of this sentence..

 

DFS Takeaway: The Browns have been gritty at home and there is one-off potential in this game.  Cleveland has gone UNDER at a 5-1 at home, with the only OVER coming in London. The Browns defense gets a little boost.

DAL @ NYG

The line moved from DAL -6 to DAL -3.5. The sharps like the Giants ability to keep this close.

 

DFS Takeaway:This is more inline with what we’re thinking. Dallas has not been good recently.  6 was way too much.  This is a slight boost to the Giants offense and a downgrade for the Dallas defense.

OAK @ KC

The public perception is that KC is bad now, and they might be; but Oakland has not travelled well to Arrowhead. This is a “lean KC” moment as there was respected money coming in on KC to cover the 4.5 points they are giving.

 

DFS Takeaway: This is a bit of a boost to the KC offense. The line has even risen a point to 48.5 so there is a little something to like in backing KC for DFS purposes.

TEN @ ARI

Nothing monumental here, aside from the total dropping from 44 to 42, but I wanted to note that the line dropped slightly from TEN -3 to TEN -2.5. While the Cardinals have gotten better and better in terms of win odds, there is nothing definitive to say they are sharp money moves.

 

DFS Takeaway: The biggest boost, however slight, is to the Arizona defense. Slightest if downticks to the Tennessee offense.

SEA @ JAX

The line opened at JAX -3 but now is JAX -2.5.  The total has also risen 2 points to 41.  The narrative is that Seattle wins in December.  What they have never done is go up against this historic defense before.

 

DFS Takeaway: We have another one-off situation on our hands.  A slight uptick for the seattle offense and an ever-so-slight downtick for the Jacksonville defense. .

TOTAL TAKEAWAY

CHI @ CIN: The total rose from 37 to 40.5.  This is a big uptick to the Bengals offense


IND @ BUF:
The total dropped from 40 to 38.  Downtick to the offenses and uptick to the defenses. Also, no T-mobile so bigger uptick to the colts defense.