Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a medium sized slate ahead of us for Monday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: Houston Rockets (119), Golden State Warriors (114), and the Toronto Raptors (111). The highest priced players on the slate are James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Durant.
Free Squares
- Lauri Markkanen PF CHI ($5,200)
- Lauri Markkanen and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Boston Celtics at home tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 95-points and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 100.1 and the Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 98.9. Slight pace down game for the Bulls tonight but neither team has been known for playing fast this season. Lauri is likely going to be guarded by Al Horford tonight who is one of the better power forward defenders. He has the followings stats for the season so far this year: 30.4 MPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 APG, .6 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 14.7 PPG, 29.9 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.349 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.65x value. He is projected to play right around 31 minutes tonight. This may not be the sexiest matchup on paper but if we dig deeper I really like Markkanen tonight. He is not that expensive tonight, is going to play all the minutes he can handle, and he has a solid FPPM. He can provide some nice value for your roster tonight with some solid upside. Load him up a value forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Paul PG/SG HOU ($8,100)
- Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets will take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight at home. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 119-points and they are currently 12.5-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.3 and the Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.9. This is going to be a pace-up game for the Rockets tonight and a game with two of the faster teams in the league. Chris Paul is likely going to be matched up against Rajon Rondo who I think Chris Paul is going to torch tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 30.1 MPG, 9.8 APG, .3 BLKPG, 2.0 STLPG, 14.3 PPG, 40.0 FPPG, and a 1.33 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 44.693 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.52x value. He is projected for right around 32 minutes tonight. Chris Paul has been doing well in his new home and I expect that to continue in a great matchup tonight. I still think his price is too low considering all the factors tonight. Load him up at either guard position tonight on Draftkings.
- Kris Dunn PG/SG CHI ($6,100)
- Kris Dunn and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Boston Celtics at home tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 95-points and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs. As stated in the Markkanen write-up the Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 100.1 and the Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 98.9. Slight pace down game for the Bulls tonight but neither team has been known for playing fast this season. Dunn is likely going to be matched up against Marcus Smart tonight who has been an above average defender this season. Dunn has the following stats on the season so far this year: 28.1 MPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.1 APG, .3 BLKPG, 2.0 STLPG, 12.8 PPG, 30.0 FPPG, and a 1.07 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.003 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.41 DKFP. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. Dunn was terrible in Minnesota last year but he has really improved this year in Chicago. He has a solid FPPM and is going to see a ton of minutes tonight at an affordable price. Load him up as a mid-tier guard on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Chris Paul tonight! Good luck Army!
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