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POINT GUARDS:
Kyrie Irving (BOS @ ATL)
ATL is allowing the 3rd-most FPPG overall, the most on this slate. Kyrie just popped in a season-high 35 (real) points @ATL two weeks ago and the Vegas line (BOS -6.5) seems underwhelming for this matchup, indicating that we should see a close game.
Stephen Curry (GS @ PHI)
The first of many Warriors to be listed, Curry always has volume in his back pocket. He runs point for the most dynamic offensive show in the history of the NBA and will be involved in the game with the highest pace and total of the night. If Curry doesn’t meet expectations, it’s just simply not your night.
Mario Chalmers (MEM vs HOU)
It should (keyword: SHOULD) be tough for Chalmers not to hit value vs HOU in this scenario. I highly doubt the Rockets will use CP3 against him and this is a spot he has done well in (at his current price) before… ya know, except for the last meeting. Look away! Look away!
Damian Lillard (POR vs SAC)
I like this matchup for Lillard, but I’ll love it if Hill sits out on the back-end of this home-and-home set. If that’s the case, Lillard will be matched up against a much worse defender (the rookie Fox) and he’ll want to make the Kings pay after being defeated last night.
Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon (MIL @ DAL)
DAL is allowing the 6th-most FPPG to PGs, the most on this slate… I’m rarely a fan of either guy, but it’s hard to argue with those numbers.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
CJ McCollum (POR vs SAC)
Averaging 41 DKP/38.6 FDP in last 5 meetings vs SAC… Also makes for a great pivot off a likely-chalky Tyreke Evans.
JJ Redick (PHI vs GS)
I’m not crazy about his individual matchup against Klay, but (as you’ll hear in a lot of descriptions about GS and PHI players) this is all about volume… and in this instance, price. Redick’s production has been phenomenal over the last six games, including a nice performance vs GS last week.
Tyreke Evans (MEM vs HOU)
While the Grizz have been with or without Conley, Evans has come in and done a remarkable job. I assume Evans will be the one to catch the matchup with CP3, but I don’t know how much it’ll matter because of his minute restriction… if he’s still on it. In these games below, CP3 was out for the Rockets.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA vs LAC)
If Kemba ends up missing tonight’s game, he should comfortably slide into a ton of minutes. Lamb has a 28.5% usage rate without Kemba on the floor.
Lou Williams (LAC @ CHA)
Call me nuts, but I like this setting for Sweet Lou. On back-end B2B mode for both teams, this potential sloppy pace could funnel the offense more towards jump shooters instead of banging down low. Sweet Lou has played at least 36 minutes in each of the last four games with massive production coming in two of those.
Klay Thompson (GS @ PHI)
PHI allowing 3rd-most FPPG to SGs… I still think Klay is priced a little too high to be a one-trick pony, but the volume is certainly there.
-CAUTION:
James Harden has struggled historically against the Grizzlies, and this is the fourth (and final) time the two teams are facing each other this season. The Grizzlies will be without Conley, making this seem like a more appealing matchup, but don’t forget they have Evans and solid defensive game plan that has worked plenty of times before. Truth be told, I’m not even convinced Conley is as great of a defender since his Achilles issues have kept popping up.
Donovan Mitchell (UTA @ ORL)
B2B mode, 3rd game in 4 days, 4th game in 6 days… ORL has had two full days off before tonight’s game, this one could get ugly. Rubio is also listed as probable for this game and that will shed Mitchell of minutes/usage.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL @ DAL)
DAL owns the NBA’s 3rd-worst defensive efficiency… I’m not sure how they’ll stop the NBA’s leader in player efficiency rating.
Kevin Durant/Andre Iguodala (GS @ PHI)
KD filled up the stat sheet vs PHI in last week’s meeting, and we have every reason to expect the same tonight. Iggy is viable here as well on the cheap with some narrative to boot- former Sixer that gets plenty of love from the Philly faithful every time he comes back home.
Robert Covington (PHI vs GS)
The Domination Station has a hard-on for Covington today, and that’s because this up-tempo setting is perfect for his skillset. He did falter, however, in last week’s meeting vs GS but has exceeded or reached salary-based expectations in four of the last six games.
Evan Fournier/Jonathan Simmons (ORL vs UTA)
This will be a common theme, but the Magic can have a big night vs UTA in their current situation. The minutes are usually there for Fournier, so it’s funny to see him get only 26 minutes in two games during their recent four-game West coast road trip… don’t fret too much about that, it was just a good time to get him extra rest. Simmons is averaging 25 DKP/23.3 FDP over the last five games and becomes more appealing with Isaac on the shelf.
-CAUTION:
Jaylen Brown (BOS @ ATL)
Plenty of real-life difficulties weighing on the mind of Brown, and he posted a huge game last time out, hours after learning that his best friend died. I feel for the guy, but from an ownership perspective this is like half of the equivalent to fading Monroe last night- doesn’t feel right, but it could make all the difference.
POWER FORWARDS:
Ben Simmons, Dario Saric (PHI vs GS)
Simmons didn’t have the greatest of nights @GS in last week’s meeting, but his 33.3 DKP/31 FDP output was just shy of his worst total of the season. All in all, he really hasn’t killed a lineup yet, and that is impressive for someone in their first NBA season… Saric seems like he is finally learning to coexist in the same lineup with Embiid. In the last five games, Saric has exceeded or reached salary-based expectations four times. Sure, he’ll be matched up at times with Dray, but there will be enough volume in this game to make up for it when he’s not.
Draymond Green (GS @ PHI)
Got his hands on five steals and two blocks during last week’s meeting vs PHI, all while coming three assists shy of a triple-double. This game will have a fantastic tempo to it and that’s where Dray thrives.
Marcus Morris (BOS @ ATL)
The Domination Station loves him and it’s pointless to argue. Morris has been eased back into the Celtics lineup while still being producing respectable totals at his generous price tag. This matchup with ATL should ease him right into a total around 5x value, with the possibility of adding some extra peripherals against a sloppy team.
Jonas Jerebko (UTA @ ORL)
ORL allows the 4th-most FPPG to the PF position… Jerebko was a big disappointment last night, but he will be needed for decent minutes in this one. The Jazz are on back-end B2B mode, already missing Gobert, Favors has an injury-riddled past and Sefolosha is a true game-time decision.
-CAUTION:
Blake Griffin (LAC @ CHA)
This is a back-end B2B for not only the Clippers, but the Hornets as well. Griffin just posted his best fantasy-point performance of the season last night, and there’s a chance the masses will go back to the well… I don’t mind fading a guy that has consistently missed expectations in a B2B situation.
CENTERS:
Al Horford (BOS @ ATL)
Plenty of narrative here as Horford returns to ATL… He finished an assist shy of a triple-double in the Celtics’ last trip there about two weeks ago.
Joel Embiid (PHI vs GS)
GS is allowing 4th-most FPPG to centers… Embiid struggled in this matchup last week, scoring only 12 points and committing seven turnovers. He did, however, have one of the best performances in NBA history against the Lakers on Wednesday and that’ll be the thing that is fresh in the minds of everyone. All in all, Embiid should have a performance somewhere in the middle of those two.
John Henson (MIL @ DAL)
DAL is allowing the 8th-most FPPG to centers… Henson has hit salary-based expectations in six of the last nine games.
Nikola Vucevic (ORL vs UTA)
Not as nervous about this UTA defense without Gobert in the lineup… ORL is finally coming home after a four-game West coast road trip and Vucevic has at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last two home games.
-CAUTION:
Jusuf Nurkic (POR vs SAC)
Tough to go back to the well with Nurkic, but SAC is allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to centers and you would think it’s the Blazers’ turn to do some damage on the back-end of this home-and-home set. All of those circumstances are great, but outside of a three-game stretch in early November, Nurkic has been as unreliable has they come.
* Late update: Ed Davis is listed as questionable, so if he is out then it’s possible for Nurkic to get a big helping of minutes… in which case, I would move him out of the caution list.
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