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DETROIT PISTONS @ INDIANA PACERS (-1.5) – O/U: 212.5
** IND is 7-2 (straight up/ATS) vs DET in their last 9 meetings
DET:
Jon Leuer (QUESTIONABLE – ankle)
Andre Drummond (DK: $8900/FD: $9100)
Tobias Harris (DK: $6400/FD: $6700)
IND allowing the 6th-most FPPG overall, and most of it is coming from the interior as they allow the 2nd-most to opposing centers… Also allowing 3rd-most FPPG to opposing PFs, benefitting Harris who has scored at least 22 (real) points in three of his last four meetings vs IND.
Avery Bradley (DK: $6400/FD: $6300)
Posted at least 34 DKP/30 FDP in four of the last six games
*** GPP Darts:
Reggie Jackson (DK: $6100/FD: $5900)
Ish Smith (DK: $3600/FD: $4100)
IND:
Glenn Robinson III (OUT – ankle)
Edmond Sumner (OUT – knee)
Victor Oladipo (DK: $7600/FD: $7700)
Bad matchup against Bradley, but Oladipo is averaging 40.8 DKP/38.6 FDP over the last three games
Bojan Bogdanovic (DK: $4500/FD: $4400)
DET allowing 6th-most FPPG to opposing SFs
*** GPP Darts:
Myles Turner (DK: $7200/FD: $7800)
Thaddeus Young (DK: $6100/FD: $5800)
MIAMI HEAT @ WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) – O/U: 210.5
** MIA is 6-3 straight up (5-4 ATS) vs WSH in their last 9 meetings
** 5 of the last 8 MIA/WSH games have gone OVER the total
* Back-end home-and-home set for the two teams, Wizards won the front-end
MIA:
Okara White (OUT – foot)
Rodney McGruder (OUT – leg)
Hassan Whiteside (DK: $8400/FD: $8800)
WSH had been doing well against centers this season, but Whiteside continues to bring the pain…
*** GPP Darts:
Goran Dragic (DK: $6700/FD: $6700)
Dion Waiters (DK: $5900/FD: $5900)
James Johnson (DK: $5800/FD: $5500)
Josh Richardson (DK: $4600/FD: $4600)
WSH:
Devin Robinson (OUT – foot)
John Wall (DK: $9200/FD: $9700)
Bradley Beal (DK: $7500/FD: $7700)
Wall (27 points) and Beal (26 points) carried the Wizards to victory in that last game, so I would expect this game to go the same way. It’s been this two posting the best fantasy point totals for the Wizards all season.
*** GPP Darts:
Otto Porter (DK: $6200/FD: $6900)
Markieff Morris (DK: $4600/FD: $4700)
Kelly Oubre (DK: $4500/FD: $4500)
UTAH JAZZ (-2.5) @ BROOKLYN NETS – O/U: 209.5
** UTA is 4-1 (straight up/ATS) vs BKN in their last 5 meetings
UTA:
* Front-end B2B (@ORL tomorrow)
Thabo Sefolosha (QUESTIONABLE – knee)
Ricky Rubio (OUT – Achilles)
Rudy Gobert (OUT – knee)
Joe Johnson (OUT – wrist)
Donovan Mitchell (DK: $6500/FD: $6400)
Joe Ingles (DK: $5400/FD: $5500)
Rodney Hood (DK: $5400/FD: $5700)
BKN allowing the second-most FPPG overall and this is where most of the offense is coming from tonight. Mitchell (the top option of this trio) is from the NYC area so he does have all the narrative mojo.
Derrick Favors (DK: $5900/FD: $6500)
BKN has been getting destroyed down low and Favors basically has all the workload he can handle with Gobert out if the lineup. Last week, he churned up a nice 24-point/12-rebound performance vs BKN… There is a small bit of narrative here as Favors was drafted 3rd overall in 2010 by the (then) New Jersey Nets and flipped later that season in the Deron Williams deal. It’s been a matchup that has fared well for him over the last few seasons…
BKN:
* 2 full days off before tonight’s game
D’Angelo Russell (OUT – knee)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK: $6000/FD: $7400)
Spencer Dinwiddie (DK: $5500/FD: $6500)
DeMarre Carroll (DK: $5600/$6000)
These three players will likely have the most production while Russell is out, but their price tags are noticeably high on FanDuel. It could be an interesting case of “paying up to be contrarian” with Gobert making the Jazz a less-formidable defensive team.
Joe Harris (DK: $3600/FD: $3600)
Hit upwards of 7x value in three of his last five games
Trevor Booker (DK: $4500/FD: $4800)
Former member of the Jazz, and he has excelled before in this matchup…
*** GPP Darts:
Allen Crabbe (DK: $4400/FD: $5400)
Caris LeVert (DK: $4200/FD: $4700)
LOS ANGLES CLIPPERS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (-6.5) – O/U: 222
** Teams have split the last 4 meetings
** 3 of the last 4 CLE/LAC games have gone UNDER the total
LAC:
* Front-end B2B (@CHA tomorrow)
Patrick Beverley (DOUBTFUL – knee)
Danilo Gallinari (OUT – hip)
Milos Teodosic (OUT – foot)
Blake Griffin (DK: $8800/FD: $8600)
DeAndre Jordan (DK: $6800/FD: $7000)
CLE allowing 7th-most FPPG to opposing PFs … They have fared better against centers, but I don’t know how much that will matter against DJ.
Lou Williams (DK: $6600/FD: $7700)
Austin Rivers (DK: $5600/FD: $5300)
CLE allowing 4th-most FPPG overall, 2nd-most FPPG to opposing backcourts
CLE:
* 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games on a Friday
Derrick Rose (DOUBTFUL, missed 4 straight games – ankle)
Tristan Thompson (OUT – calf)
LeBron James (DK: $11200/FD: $11400)
Doesn’t have a great history vs LAC, but he’s been very consistent recently via carrying the Cavs on his back with all the injuries.
Kevin Love (DK: $7600/FD: $7400)
For him to be a great value, Love will have to go off from behind the arc. It’s impossible for DJ to defend Love on the perimeter… on the other hand, it’s just as hard for Love to defend DJ down low.
*** GPP Darts:
JR Smith (DK: $4300/FD: $4400)
Dwyane Wade (DK: $4700/FD: $4900)
Jae Crowder (DK: $3900/FD: $3900)
Kyle Korver (DK: $3600/FD: $3600)
Jeff Green (DK: $4000/FD: $3800)
NEW YORK KNICKS @ TORONTO RAPTORS (-8) – O/U: 215
** TOR is 7-1 straight up (4-4 ATS) vs NYK in their last 8 meetings
NYK:
Kristaps Porzingis (DK: $9000/FD: $9000)
Fallen shy of salary-based expectations in four of the last five games… this is after he exceeded 5x value in five of the six previous games.
Enes Kanter (DK: $6500/FD: $6400)
Exceeded or reached salary-based expectations (at current price) in five of the last seven games
*** GPP Darts:
Tim Hardaway Jr (DK: $6700/FD: $6800)
Courtney Lee (DK: $4300/FD: $4800)
Frank Ntilikina (DK: $3800/FD: $4200)
Kyle O’Quinn (DK: $3600/FD: $3900)
TOR:
* 3rd game in 4 days / 4th game in 6 days
* 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games vs Atlantic Division opponents
Serge Ibaka (QUESTIONABLE – knee)
Norman Powell (OUT – hip)
Delon Wright (OUT – shoulder)
DeMar DeRozan (DK: $7900/FD: $8000)
Kyle Lowry (DK: $7700/FD: $8000)
Fred VanVleet (DK: $3000/FD: $3300)
The best way to attack the Knicks is via their backcourt, so I could see the Raptors’ offense funneling straight to DeRozan and Lowry. VanVleet is a huge favorite of the Domination Station today, so it’s possible that the computer sees what I see… but in a reserve role with a few key injuries to the Raptors backcourt.
*** GPP Darts:
Jonas Valanciunas (DK: $5100/FD: $5100)
CJ Miles (DK: $3800/FD: $4000)
OG Anunoby (DK: $3800/FD: $3200)
CHARLOTTE HORNETS (-5) @ CHICAGO BULLS – O/U: 199.5
** CHA 4-3 straight up (5-2 ATS) vs CHI in their last 7 meetings
CHA:
* Front-end B2B (vs LAC tomorrow)
Treveon Graham (OUT – quad)
Julyan Stone (OUT – hamstring)
Kemba Walker (DK: $7900/FD: $8000)
CHI allowing 3rd-most FPPG to opposing PGs… and Kemba has fared well against them recently.
Dwight Howard (DK: $7100/FD: $7400)
It has been a regular habit to pick on CHI down low… The numbers don’t necessarily show it, but the possibility of complete domination exists!
*** GPP Darts:
Nicolas Batum (DK: $6000/FD: $6500)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK: $4200/FD: $4900)
Jeremy Lamb (DK: $5300/FD: $4800)
CHI:
* 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games on a Friday
Zach LaVine (OUT – knee)
David Nwaba (OUT – ankle)
Nikola Mirotic (OUT – face)
Cameron Payne (OUT – foot)
Lauri Markkanen (DK: $6300/FD: $6000)
Bobby Portis (DK: $6200/FD: $5000)
With exception of two recent duds, Markkanen has been remarkably consistent this season- I’ll attribute those duds to tough road matchups, and getting back to the United Center should do him well. Portis started the season with two breakout performances but has slowly come back down to Earth for validated reasons.
*** GPP Darts:
Justin Holiday (DK: $6000/FD: $5500)
Kris Dunn (DK: $5000/FD: $5800)
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-2.5) – O/U: 203
** OKC is 9-4 ATS (7-6 straight up) vs SA in their last 13 meetings
** 9 of the last 13 OKC/SA games have gone UNDER the total
OKC:
Steven Adams (WILL PLAY – calf)
Russell Westbrook (DK: $10300/FD: $10000)
Still not terrified of SA defense while Kawhi is out of the lineup… The price tag on Westbrook is just dangling there in front of our eyes looking as wonderful as ever.
Paul George (DK: $8300/FD: $8500)
Before last game, George had scored 37 and 42 (real) points in each of the last two.
Steven Adams (DK: $5700/FD: $6200)
The fact that Adams was ruled “good to go” so early in the day is a good sign and this could be a sneaky roll of the dice for GPPs. Prior to his calf injury, Adams was posting about 30 fantasy points (DK/FD) with regularity.
*** GPP Darts:
Carmelo Anthony (DK: $6800/FD: $6500)
Jerami Grant (DK: $4300/FD: $4500)
Andre Roberson (DK: $3300/FD: $3900)
SA:
* 3rd game in 4 days
Kawhi Leonard (OUT – quad)
Tony Parker (OUT – quad)
*** GPP Darts:
LaMarcus Aldridge (DK: $8000/FD: $8300)
Pau Gasol (DK: $6100/FD: $5900)
Patty Mills (DK: $4400/FD: $4900)
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (-6.5) @ DALLAS MAVERICKS – O/U: 213
** DAL is 5-3 (straight up/ATS) vs MIN in their last 8 meetings
** 6 of the last 7 DAL/MIN games have gone UNDER the total
MIN:
Gorgui Dieng (QUESTIONABLE – finger)
Karl-Anthony Towns (DK: $9400/FD: $9900)
DAL allowing 5th-most FPPG to opposing centers. Good history against them as well, with six double-doubles in eight tries.
Jeff Teague (DK: $6800/FD: $6700)
DAL allowing 3rd-most FPPG to opposing PGs
Taj Gibson (DK: $5300/FD: $4900)
Much more viable if Dieng misses tonight’s game
*** GPP Darts:
Jimmy Butler (DK: $7300/FD: $8000)
Andrew Wiggins (DK: $6600/FD: $6200)
DAL:
* Front-end B2B (vs MIL tomorrow)
Devin Harris (PROBABLE – ribs)
Seth Curry (OUT – leg)
Dorian Finney-Smith (OUT – knee)
Josh McRoberts (OUT – leg)
Dennis Smith Jr (DK: $6000/FD: $6900)
Wesley Matthews (DK: $4600/FD: $5100)
JJ Barea (DK: $4300/FD: $4800)
Yogi Ferrell (DK: $3800/FD: $4000)
MIN has been getting shredded by opposing backcourts (6th-most FPPG to PGs, 4th-most to SGs) this season.
Harrison Barnes (DK: $6300/FD: $7200)
It’s not the easiest matchup, but Barnes has done well over the last six games. The only hiccup came on the back-end of a B2B in a blowout which limited his minutes.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (-6.5) @ SACRAMENTO KINGS – O/U: 201.5
** POR is 6-1 straight up (4-3 ATS) vs SAC in their last 7 meetings
** 5 of the last 7 POR/SAC games have gone UNDER the total
* Front-end home-and-home series on B2B days
POR:
* Front-end B2B (vs SAC tomorrow)
Al-Farouq Aminu (OUT – ankle)
CJ Wilcox (OUT – knee)
Wade Baldwin (OUT – thumb)
Damian Lillard (DK: $8900/FD: $9500)
CJ McCollum (DK: $6900/FD: $7300)
SAC allowing the 5th-most FPPG overall
Jusuf Nurkic (DK: $7000/FD: $7700)
SAC allowing the *most FPPG to opposing centers
*** GPP Darts:
Evan Turner (DK: $4400/FD: $4400)
Moe Harkless (DK: $3500/FD: $4000)
Noah Vonleh (DK: $3600/FD: $3800)
Ed Davis (DK: $3500/FD: $3700)
SAC:
* Front-end B2B (@POR tomorrow)
Vince Carter (OUT – illness)
*** GPP Darts:
De’Aaron Fox (DK: $5000/FD: $4900)
Zach Randolph (DK: $4900/FD: $5000)
Buddy Hield (DK: $5200/FD: $4500)
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS @ DENVER NUGGETS (-5) – O/U: 218
** DEN is 4-3 (straight up/ATS) vs NOR in their last 7 meetings
NOR:
Tony Allen (QUESTIONABLE – knee)
Solomon Hill (OUT – hamstring)
Alexis Ajinca (OUT – knee)
Omer Asik (OUT – illness)
DeMarcus Cousins (DK: $10900/FD: $11600)
In this 10-game stretch of performances vs DEN, Boogie did great… albeit, nine of those coming when he was a member of the Kings. Boogie has scored at least 30 (real) points in six straight meetings vs DEN.
Anthony Davis (DK: $10200/FD: $11000)
DEN allowing 2nd-most FPPG to opposing PFs… Haven’t seen much upside from AD over the last few games, but this matchup is one to get him back on the good foot.
Jrue Holiday (DK: $6500/FD: $6200)
Rajon Rondo (DK: $4400/FD: $4200)
Rondo is scheduled to play 20-24 minutes, so this takes away production from Holiday, who will see most of his minutes at the shooting guard position.
DEN:
Gary Harris (WILL PLAY – shoulder)
* 3 full days off before tonight’s game
Paul Millsap (DK: $7000/FD: $7200)
Nikola Jokic (DK: $8100/FD: $9300)
NOR allowing 6th-most FPPG to opposing FPs… Millsap has shown he can hang with AD, posting three double-doubles in their last four meetings. I don’t mind Jokic either, I’ll just place more importance on Millsap here.
PHOENIX SUNS @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS (-5.5) – O/U: 226
** Teams have split the last 10 meetings
** 6 of the last 10 LAL/PHX games have gone OVER the total
PHX:
* Back-end B2B (vs HOU yesterday)
Tyson Chandler (QUESTIONABLE – illness)
Jared Dudley (OUT – knee)
Alan Williams (OUT – knee)
Devin Booker (DK: $7800/FD: $7600)
It’s an unappealing matchup with KCP, who missed the first of two meetings between the teams, but Booker still succeeded in the other one…
Greg Monroe (DK: $4100/FD: $3700)
He went bananas last night and will likely be the highest-owned player on this slate… Be cautious, as the Suns are in back-end B2B mode, and you should wonder how much they want to push Monroe who is just coming off a calf injury.
*** GPP Darts:
TJ Warren (DK: $6500/FD: $7500)
Josh Jackson (DK: $3500/FD: $3300)
Marquese Chriss (DK: $4100/FD: $4500)
Tyler Ulis (DK: $4200/FD: $4200)
LAL:
Larry Nance Jr (OUT – thumb)
Lonzo Ball (DK: $7100/FD: $7400)
Jordan Clarkson (DK: $5100/FD: $5100)
PHX is allowing the *most FPPG overall, including the *most to opposing PGs. However, it’s unsettling that Ball has been benched for the fourth quarter in each of the last two games. Ball did have one of his best performances vs PHX in that first meeting, falling an assist shy of a triple-double, but tripped up in an ideal spot against them four days ago. Clarkson has seen increased minutes in each of the last two games and has about 7x value to show for it. With PHX in back-end B2B mode, I like Clarkson’s odds for big production no matter what.
Kyle Kuzma (DK: $6700/FD: $6400)
Julius Randle (DK: $5100/FD: $5300)
PHX allowing 4th-most FPPG to opposing PFs… Kuzma got back in the groove last game, his first at home after a four-game road trip that was humbling at times. Randle remains a frustrating option due to his inconsistency in minutes.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK: $5600/FD: 5300)
At least 30 fantasy points (DK/FD) in three of the last four games, one of which came vs PHX who allows the *most FPPG to opposing SGs.
Brandon Ingram (DK: $6300/FD: $6200)
He is becoming TJ Warren 2.0, where 40-point upside is a possibility one night and then followed up by numbers in the teens going forward. Ingram did score a season-high 26 (real) points on Wednesday vs PHI.
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