Same day qualifying is always a challenge, but thats in the past. This week we face a much tougher challenge – a plethora of notable driver starting way in the back. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Matt Kenseth – This is actually my favorite play of the week. I think the super-duper chalk will be Chase, but I think Kenseth has a good shot to smash value. He’s in a Toyota, which have been brutally good on 1.5 mile tracks this year. He has top ten single lap speed, and I think he can cooly and calmly dice through the field.
Chase Elliott – Speaking of Chase Elliott – he’s still a really solid play. He comes in with a lot of hype after being in the lime light all week. He shows around top ten speed, and has a massive chip on his shoulder. Don’t concern yourself with the Denny retaliation hype, that stuff dosen’t happen in REAL life – right?
Joey Logano – Rounding out the top equipment starting out back, Joey will start 36th in what appears to be a top 12 car. Im not as super stoked on Joey just because of his struggles on 1.5 miles late in year. Alas, its hard to go wrong with a 36th starting spot.
Martin Truex Jr – I mean? Do I need to explain this. MTJ is just an animal on 1,5 milers and could see some lower than usual ownership in order to fit in the heavy hitters starting near the bag. He’s still gonna be super highly owned though. If you’re in – go all in.
Kyle Larson – Larson has nothing to lose and will be driving the hell out of the thing. He was fastest on the long run in final practice, and showed some prowess at Texas in the spring. He also has some built in failsafe starting in 11th.
Worth Considering
I think Kurt Busch has some speed this weekend, but not enough to hold those Toyotas off. You can play him, as his ownership will be low as can be for a pole sitter, but I think he will show a top 7 car at best.
Values
Erik Jones – He starts 4th, but I think Jones has some legitimate top 2 speed. He can lead laps, and compete for a win. If it’s gonna happen in 2017, it is going to happen on a 1.5 mile and this is his best shot yet. He will have to hold off the rest of the Toyotas but if things get goofy – Jones could be there.
Trevor Bayne – I am not super stoked on Baynes speed this weekend, but he is rolling off 37th on a track where he pretty consistently finishes in the top 20. He will be chalky as hell so if you’re in, you have to be all in.
Kasey Kahne – If you want to sneak off the chalk a little this weekend, take a peak at Kahne. Kahne starts 19th, and has top ten potential, which should be enough to hit the optimal. In a chalky week, that is enough for me to play him.
Gray Gaulding – Starting 40th – why not? I don’t think the odds of Gray finishing in the top 30 are that good, but if you want to fit those heavy hitters in, he is your best shot. He will attempt all the laps and has shown an ability to finish so uh…go for it? Don’t go overboard though. Balanced line-ups may be your best bet.
So there it is folks, lots of chalk and not much value. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.