Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I mean back when grampa played with leather helmets and no face mask to grab. The last vestiges of the Wishbone were finally eradicated somewhere in the 1980s from the Big8 and Southwest conferences, later rebranded the Big12.
The wishbone is a powerhouse formation designed for ground and pound, move the chains, bend over here it comes and we are telling you about it type football. However, within that formation came a ton of options, reads, cutbacks, and even some passing plays. Like DFS, the wishbone was the chalk, but from the wishbone evolved a lot of contrarian plays. Now, that your history is current, and you undoubtedly see where I’m going with this article, let’s “dive” in. (Hopefully, some of you got that last little pun there.)
By the way, my name is @Choppodong (give me a follow out on Twitter) and I am a contributor and coach for the DFS Army. We don’t build lineups for you. Instead, we teach you how to build your own fundamentally competitive lineups. If you are the type of player that takes pride in his/her research, you might be just who we are looking for. In fact, I have another few hundred buddies inside just waiting to meet another player that can bring yet another unique perspective to the group. There is nothing quite like a few hundred like-minded DFSers chatting throughout the week and getting better through groupthink. I promise nothing else you’ve experienced compares.
DFS Army NFL Week 11 in Review
For a recap of week 11 and preview of week 12 in video format, see the video above.
Now, for the skim-friendly version of week 8…
QB– Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and finally some Drew Brees all head the QB spot. Most of whom were predictable. Blaine Gabbert, I saw, got a lot of attention for being cheap, and he rewarded you. But, I wouldn’t make it a habit going forward.
RB– McCoy, Ingram and Kamara lead the way. Not many play both Ingram/Kamara in stacked up spots, but it’s not a bad way to go when you look at their weekly production. That move might be a bit cost-prohibitive now, but looking back, it has been viable for a few weeks. Leonard Fournette showed us two things: First, like Adrian Peterson, he is touchdown dependent at this price point. Second, he’s a liar. Sure, he doesn’t like playing in the cold, but he still will.
WR– Keenan Allen wasn’t on a lot of radars, but you just never know when studs will explode. Brandin Cooks finally had a game. The chalkiest of the top dogs was likely Adam Thielen, who continues to impress no matter his QB. Toss in a little Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, and even some DeAndre Hopkins and things worked out about as expected. Of note was Jamison Crowder and his sudden return to relevance the past several weeks.
TE– Travis Kelce smashed without a TD, and he is the first TE to score 20 points vs NYG on the year. Gronk disappointed and Ertz was solid in his return. Our other call, even though we bailed due to weather, scored a TD…..Mercedes Lewis. Targeting NY, WAS, and CLE with your TEs isn’t a bad way to go in any given week.
DST– Jags were the play, BAL was also nice, and a lot of us felt LAC would come to the party, but we didn’t realize it was with 5 gifts from Nathan Peterman.
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You have likely seen enough winning in the videos and scrolling screenshots. I will provide you two links if you like deconstructing winning lineups to see what you can’t glean from their wisdom. The first is Deconstructing a DFS Army Member’s $150,000 Winning Lineup on Fanduel. The other is Deconstructing the KOTB qualifier on Draftkings. Both used set gameplans to craft their lineups leading them to victory.
Let’s jump right into week 12!!
Week 12 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
A large spread often indicates the favored team will be winning by a comfortable margin as the game nears the end. We can use this to predict a running back’s usage in the 4th quarter, or even earlier. A high implied total can indicate several touchdowns to be spread around amongst the key players. And, when both teams have a high implied total, but the spread is small, it can indicate a possible shootout with the offenses just going back and forth allowing our DFS NFL players to feast on points like Amazon piranhas surrounding a capybara. Generally speaking, we are attracted to the green and leery of the red in this graphic.
Watch: GPP vs Cash Lineup Building
NFL Week 12 Game Spotlights
Turkey Day Games/Slate
Kirk Cousins will be your chalky QB. I suppose Case Keenum is an alternate depending on when MIN wants to force Teddy Bridgewater back into the mix. Melvin Gordon will be ok, and chalky, against a DAL defense missing Sean Lee again. That 2nd RB looks interesting, and is where you’ll find your ability to differentiate off other players in GPPs. Thompson, McKinnon, Darkwa all might be in that mixture. Wide receivers, as usual, offer your most widespread selections in terms of both talent and pricing, but they also offer a ton of volatility. Nailing them, and that second helping of turkey, will be the key to your holiday.
I can see people using Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Rudolph for the most part. Any others should go low owned……for good reason. MIN should lead the way at defense, but I’d temper expectations. They just happen to be in the best spot at first glance.
NO @ LAR
The main slate game to watch/target will be the Saints and the Rams. There are some serious spreads this week with massive favorites in many of the games. These games are intriguing because they feature offenses spreading the ball around. There aren’t a lot of defined running games suggesting the game flow will just grind clock late. It appears many of these offenses will need to keep their feet on the gas of the passing game to hit these lofty implied team totals. Our VIPs should stay tuned to Slack for further commentary as more data pours into our spreadsheet tool, the Research Station.
As for this potential shootout, we know NO will want to run the ball. But, LA has been pretty good defensively. We might see some Drew Brees again just to keep the balance. More Brees should mean more Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, though Mark Ingram should see his normal load of touches.
I am more wondering about the absence of Jared Goff’s favorite receiver, Robert Woods. I would like to know where those targets are going to go. I don’t trust Sammy Watkings, making me actually lean a little to Cooper Kupp. However, I can also see where the Rams just try and feed Todd Gurley the rock and keep the ball in sure hands. Mixing and matching all the scenarios will be key to finding yourself on the top of multi-entry leaderboards. I hope you find the time around family, driving to gramma’s, playing backyard football, and drinking beer instead of Gatorade. I don’t think I’ll be so fortunate.
You know, the world of DFS NFL is heading towards computer algorithms and optimizers. If you aren’t using one, you are now at a disadvantage in certain contests. I want to show you ours through a tutorial video we put together. DFS Army has invested heavily in giving you not only the coaching to be great, but also the tools, stats, content, and even the optimizer. Fully customizable, the Domination Station (click link for tutorial video) has produced big wins in every sport due to our own Army projection system. From there, you can plug in a few players you like or simply let the optimizer run you off 150 lineups. The choice is completely yours as to how you run this dragster of a computer algorithm set up to propel you across any finish line. To unlock this beautiful piece of machinery, use the coupon code CHOP when you sign up. CHOP gives you a 20% discount for the life of your membership no matter what our rates do in the future. You are locked in at your original price!!
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Chop’s NFL Chalk Talk
Click here to see how I build most of my NFL lineups in 30 min or less….“Bottom Up” Lineup Building Advice
QB – Usually a rather spread out position for ownership, it’s difficult to find the true chalk here. With such an even point distribution across most of the position, the choices are just so wide open most weeks.
Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, Alex Smith (bounceback), Matt Ryan, and some Russell Wilson are where I’m starting to dig in. I really have no desire to nitpick some crappy, low total game just because the QB is cheap. Cheap QBs are nice, but they need to be in good spots, too.
RB – I can tell you LeVeon Bell and David JohnsonP, and maybe Ezekiel ElliottP (uh oh) will be weekly features. Let’s talk about some others instead.
The one thing I’m almost sure of regarding the PHI running game right now is the committee. It might only be 2-headed this week with the 13 point spread, but we won’t see one dude grinding clock. We’ll see a combo of Ajayi and Blount. This still presents too much of a gamble for my taste. Speaking of committees, good Lord I can’t guess the Patriots for the life of me. I won’t be taking chances here either.
Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, and the above mentioned LeVeon Bell are in the best spots on the week. Don’t be afraid to pay up for two of them.
WR – On FanDuel, you should be focusing on touchdowns and red zone work. On DraftKings, we can favor reception volume more.
I’m looking to Antonio Brown this week if I can find two viable punt receivers in good spots. I won’t hesitate, though, to continue using players like Muhammed Sanu, either. I might also be tempted to grab some Cooper Kupp after looking at the expectations, or lack of, for Robert Woods.
However against the grain, TY Hilton, Michael Thomas, along with some Emmanuel Sanders or DeMaryius Thomas are also in play. Those underdogs can sometimes go overlooked in bigger games. Remember, it’s not a bad idea to look at a WR1 for some cheap garbage time production. It helps him much faster than it helps his QB.
TE – Perhaps the most volatile of the NFL skilled positions, knowing some chalk here becomes quite important.
Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce are leading the way once again. I don’t see a cheaper TE at first glance, but as I said above, tune into Slack this week as things start to clarify themselves.
DST – Another volatile NFL position, but chalk emerges more predictably most weeks.
Cincy, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore………………..you’re welcome.
Honestly, big spreads are part of it, but when the opponent’s implied total is under 16 points, you just look for the cheaper one and smash them in everywhere. These four defenses are in the best spots possible.
K – I don’t cover a lot of kickers. My default criteria for them is very simple, however.
I want them favored, at home, and implied to score over 24 points. I prefer them in good weather, too. From there, I simply find the cheapest meeting all these criteria and bam……I have my kicker. Pretty simple. If you want more sophisticated advice, I recommend you read through our NFL tabfor Kicker’s Corner and other relevant content. PVAaron writes the kicker’s article, and it drops most Thursdays.
The Fine Print
Disclaimer – As will all my writing, my job is to put you on the popular plays….the sound plays. From there, you can determine for yourself where and when to get off them. I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask Keith, Al, the Geek, Donuts, and our other coaches for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
Come back next week because we will break this all down again. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFSArmy.com to unlock your 20% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.