Today’s article is going to be slightly different. I’ve been shouting this from the rooftops on our Slack channel for awhile but people keep ignoring my warning. In certain situations, we cannot just blindly trust the DS to print us money. We have to pay attention to the ebb and flow of the slate.
For instance, on Friday, I must have said it for four hours on Slack that Greg Monroe was a trap for GPPs. His ownership was going to be through the roof and he had just played his first game in 20 days because of a calf injury. I said I was worried he wouldn’t even get 20 minutes on the second leg of the back to back and that with his elevated ownership, injury concern, lack of conditioning, and overall unclarity on how the team was going to treat him – that he was an easy fade and a trap play for the masses. I told people to uncheck Monroe on the DS and re-run it no matter who else they wanted to lock in.
Was there a chance that he could have gone off last night and I would have looked foolish? Yes, of course. But sticking true to solid GPP principles of fading outlier performances with underlying issues surrounding said performance will always be the right move – no matter the outcome. In GPPs, it’s the little things that we can’t overlook. That’s how you gain those minor edges over the massive competition we face. Don’t get stuck being a game log watcher, it’s the biggest hurdle for most DFS players to overcome.
On Saturday, we have a few situations that we have to monitor and be careful of. I am going to list them, at least the ones that are currently something to track, and you will have to use your due diligence to update the DS minutes projections accordingly.
Kemba Walker – Questionable
Malik Monk has been a great FP/Min guy this season and could find himself playing upper-20’s in minutes against the Clippers without Patrick Beverley. Michael Carter-Williams is on the roster but hasn’t played much since his return and looks rusty – as he’s been a healthy DNP the last several games. We’ve seen Monk put up some solid scores when pressed into extra action and he’d but close to a plug and play if we hear that he’s going to start.
He’s extremely cheap on FD and DK and makes it possible to lock in both James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the same lineup. Batum would definitely get some extra ball-handling duties as well as a handful of extra shots.
Buddy Hield – OUT
With Hield out, we likely will see Garret Temple get some extra run tonight making him a decent punt option, although he’s just not that talented and relies on his shot falling. I would rather go Monk in the shooting guard position if we hear that Walker is out and Monk is starting. Maybe even if he’s not starting, I am very intrigued with him tonight if Walker is out.
MKG – Taken Off Injury Report
MKG can fill up the stat sheet in a hurry. He was taken off the injury report and he’s been playing upper-20’s minutes since his return. I am assuming as his conditioning gets better so will his performances. He could be pressed into low-30’s minutes tonight as the team shuffles its rotations around to fill the void left by Walker. He’s very cheap on DK and has 40-point upside.
Utah Jazz – On the second leg of a B2B, 3rd game in 4 nights, 4th game in 6 nights. Injuries and age concerns are abundant.
Derick Favors is old and broken, I wouldn’t doubt that he gets the veteran treatment tonight and either sits with some fake injury news or plays 20-minutes or less. A savvy GPP player would go back to the well with Jerebko or Sefolosha (if active). Donovan Mitchell still makes for a fine target because of his volume but I think his heavy minutes and short rest mean his ceiling could be capped tonight. His legs are probably going to be pretty tired and if his shot is not falling he’s going to struggle to exceed value. I likely won’t touch him though but I won’t blame you for giving him another go. Just pay attention to if Ricky Rubio is active, then I likely won’t touch Mitchell for sure.
Willy Cauley-Stein – Went HAM on Friday, plays the same team in B2B on Saturday.
Greg Monroe part two. WCS had his best game of the season on Friday against the Trailblazers and now plays them on the road on Saturday in a home/away B2B. I can see his ownership spiking into the 20’s tonight because of last nights performance. This has trap written all over it. ZBO didn’t play that much on Friday and I could see his minutes spike tonight and WCS play a heck of a lot fewer minutes than he did on Friday. He could easily sink your lineup if you’re on him and he is heavily owned.
The crowd will either pay up for Marc Gasol because of the “he’s going to score 70 again” thought process. If they don’t pay up for him they’ll pay down for WCS. Capela is probably the smart GPP play with moderate to low ownership.
My player pool for tonight:
Guards
George Hill – Could play nearly 30-minutes tonight and he is beginning to round into form. He was a 5500-6500 type player last season when he was playing well and is currently at a great bargain price on both FD/DK.
Dennis Schroder – Scored 38 against Boston a few weeks ago, is the centerpiece of this team offensively. Also has the best matchup in DvP for the Hawks.
Dennis Smith Jr. (coming off a bad game and fewer minutes) – superb GPP play
Mario Chalmers – A nice salary relief option. He doesn’t have a high ceiling but is a great cash game option. Rarely takes double-digit shot attempts which is why he’s not a great GPP play.
Tyreke Evans – Has massive usage rate spikes over the past eight games and will run the offense with Conley out.
James Harden – Superb play as people are always afraid of going against Memphis. He’s been held in check by Memphis in 2/3 matchups this season but without Conley, he should feast on the outside as that’s who normally guards him this season.
Nicolas Batum – Highlighted above
J.J. Redick – He will be relied upon to bomb threes to keep the Sixers in the game. He recently went 0-8 from downtown against the Lakers and still scored 29.1 FanDuel points. He scored 36.2 against the Warriors just three games ago. He’s a great cash/GPP combo play.
Malik Monk – Highlighted above
Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo – On a smaller 7-game slate I want to lock in Harden and Giannis and go from there. Plenty of value to make it work. I’ll gladly take the 110-130 points they will likely combine for to start my lineup.
Harrison Barnes – Better on DK because of his price tag.
Trevor Ariza – Great cash game play on FanDuel at a weak SF position.
MKG – One of my favorite GPP plays at any position on the entire slate. Specifically on DK.
Wes Johnson – NOT IN MY PLAYER POOL. Greg Monroe TRAP example applies here. Career game and 42-minutes yesterday. The second leg of B2B. Likely faces MKG defense, yuck, fade fade fade!
Ryan Anderson – Does much better on the road and should be able to stretch the floor against Memphis.
John Henson – Should dominate on the glass against the Mavs. I like him on both FD and DK (double-double bonus).
Dario Saric – He should get double-digit shot attempts in a fast-paced game against the Warriors. We know his ceiling is higher than what he is showing this season. The breakout could be coming.
Zach Randolph – The crowd will be on WCS and off ZBO, however, he only played 14-minutes against Portland on Friday. The second leg of a B2b and 3rd game in 4 nights makes him GPP only, but he should be rested after a weak showing on Friday.
Center
Clint Capela – Highlighted above. He’s my favorite center on the slate.
Marc Gasol – Tremendous cash game play. Fine GPP play if you are contrarian elsewhere because of his ownership.
Nikola Vucevic – He might obliterate the Jazz bigs tonight and should have 10% or less ownership. Superb GPP play against a defense that is struggling without Rudy Gobert holding down the fort.
Best of luck tonight. Remember to adjust the DS accordingly and if you have plays you want then make sure to just lock them in when you run the system. If there is someone you’re uneasy about then uncheck them and go from there.
Hit me up on Slack or Twitter @DFSnDONUTS