Welcome back. This could possibly end up being the best card of the year from top to bottom. Pay close attention this week to salaries and odds. There are a number of fighters missed priced in terms of odds. This will make cash games somewhat chalky and tournaments very interesting. Don’t forget if you are a VIP to use the MMA Research Station when you are constructing your lineups. As always if you have any questions don’t hesitate to reach out to me in Slack and follow me on Twitter. Let’s get down to business now.
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Ramos (-185) 7.5k vs Zahabi (+160) 8.7k
Right off the bat you can see what I was talking about with salaries and odds. Ramos is a good striker with a decent submission game as well. He also has a good takedown game as well. Plus he trains with Cody Garbrandt. Zahabi is decent all-around but, not great anywhere. He has shown that he is hard to put away, but can be taken down fairly easily. Ramos is a cash game lock. You can’t ignore the value you are getting with him. Lock him in a differentiate your cash lineup elsewhere. I also like him in tournaments as well. I will have him in a number of my lineups. Just don’t go all in. I might end up with a very small amount of Zahabi if any.
Saint Preux (-160) 9k vs Anderson (+140) 7.2k
Saint Preux (OSP) is coming into this fight on fairly short notice. He is a good striker with solid leg kicks. He also has a ridiculous submission game. He can sometimes tire the longer the fight goes though. Anderson is an ok striker that relies heavily on his strong takedown game. He has shown he can be clipped at times with his weak chin. So this fight basically plays out 1 of 2 ways.
1. OSP tags Anderson early on and is able to submit him.
2. Anderson can weather the 1st Rd hoping to wear OSP out.
This is a tournament only fight for me. I will have shares of both. Since Anderson is cheaper and a live dog, I will probably have more of him. But don’t forget to hedge and have some OSP as well.
Blaydes (-360) 8k vs Oleinik (+300) 8.2k
Blaydes is big, strong, and athletic. He is fairly quick and a solid striker. He also has a solid TD game with good ground and pound. Oleinik is a veteran with a very good ground game (42 of his wins have come via submission). He isn’t the best striker and also tends to be very flat-footed at times. Blaydes is another cash game lock for me with his odds and price value. He will be very popular in cash so even in a loss he wouldn’t kill your lineup. I also like him in tournaments. Oleinik is on my radar in tournaments, he will be low owned. In a win, he would most certainly pay off his salary.
Brown (-105) 7.8k vs Gall (-115) 8.4k
Brown is quick and will have the reach advantage. He is a good striker with solid kicks as well. He has shown he can go the distance against solid competition. Gall has shown he has a decent ground game and submissions. He has won 3 fights in the UFC. But, he hasn’t faced the hardest competition. One of his wins was against former WWE wrestler CM Punk. I don’t get the odds here at all. I love Brown in this spot. I don’t think he will be super popular for some reason either. I like him in all formats and he will be 1 of my highest owned fighters period. I will be looking to fade Gall for the most part. If building more then 16 lineups I might have him in 1 or 2.
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Cutelaba (-550) 9.1k vs Oleksiejczuk (+425) 7.4k
Cutelaba is an aggressive fighter that likes to throw with big power. Because of this, he has shown to gas in later rounds. Oleksiejczuk is taking this fight on short notice and doesn’t impress me much at all. I like Cutelaba in all formats. With my current cash lineup build, he isn’t in mine. I do like him in tournaments though. So it’s Cutelaba or a pass for me.
Harris (-380) 8.8k vs Godbeer (+315) 7.4k
This fight was supposed to take place a few cards back but never did. My thoughts haven’t changed at all. Harris is a good striker with good leg kicks. He is very athletic with good power. Godbeer isn’t good anywhere. I have to give the advantage to Harris everywhere. He is my preferred play. It is heavyweights so, I guess anything is possible. This is only a GPP fight for me and will have exposure to both. Just know that Godbeer isn’t that good.
Duffy (-155) 8.5k vs Vick (+135) 7.7k
This is defiantly a fight to target in tournaments. Whoever wins this fight should score very well. Duffy is a very good boxer with a solid submission game. The thing I like about him most is a rarely puts himself in bad spots. Vick is solid all-around (7-1 in UFC). He has good kicks and likes to work out of the clinch where he can throw elbows. I will have both fighters in my lineup with a very slight lean to Vick for price savings. Don’t sleep on this fight though!
Borrachinha (-265) 8.9k vs Hendricks (+225) 7.3k
Borrachinha is yet to lose in the UFC. He is a good striker with good kicks as well. He also fights at a decent pace. Hendricks isn’t a good fighter anymore. He frequently misses weight. This fight is pretty straightforward. I like Borrachinha in all formats and will be fading Hendricks.
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Thompson (-185) 8.6k vs Masvidal (+160) 7.6k
Thompson has good kicks which he uses to keep his opponent at distance. He is perfectly comfortable just trying to outstrike his opponent. Masvidal is a good striker with quick hands. He isn’t easy to put away and doesn’t panic when he gets put in a tough spot. This is 1 of those fights where I see Thompson possibly winning by the decision but likely not paying off his salary. I will be underweight on Thompson but, will have some shares of Masvidal as a live dog.
Jedzejczyk (-750) 9.2k vs Namajunas (+525) 7k
Jedzejczyk (JJ) is a quick fighter. She is a very good striker with good combos as well. She is also hard to take down. Namajunas is a decent striker with decent submissions. JJ is a cash game lock first off. In a fight that could potentially go 5 rounds, she easily has 100+ pt upside. I also like her in tournaments as well. It’s hard to fade that kind of upside. Namajunas isn’t a horrible fighter she just isn’t in the same league as JJ. I can see a case for stacking this fight in cash. Other then cash games I won’t have much if any exposure to Namajunas.
Garbrandt (-175) 8.3k vs Dillashaw (+155) 7.9k
This is a battle of former sparring partners. Garbrandt is currently undefeated in the UFC. He has good speed and big-time power in his hands. He is a solid striker with good leg kicks. Dillashaw has solid leg kicks and solid takedowns. He has shown recently he doesn’t like taking hard shots to the chin though. In cash I can see merit to stacking. I will most likely be taking a stand personally in cash with my preferred play being Garbrandt. Realistically this fight could go either way so, I will have shares of both in tournaments. Definitely not a fight to fade in tournaments.
St. Pierre (-110) 8.1k vs Bisping (-110) 8.1k
St. Pierre (GSP) has been out of the sport for 4 years. He is actually moving up a weight class from where he used to fight. Since he has been gone for so long I don’t know what to expect from him. He was a great all-around fighter. With solid striking. He was a great wrestler with possibly the best take down defense period. Bisping is coming off almost a year layoff. He is a decent striker and grappler. Along with solid wrestling. Because of so many uncertainties, I don’t mind fading this fight in cash. I will have shares of both in tournaments. Bisping is my preferred play of the 2.
Good luck everyone, don’t forget to check out the MMA Research Station to help you build your lineups, and follow me on Twitter!
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