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Flynnie’s Forecheck – Pickem Advice for NHL DFS Draftkings Nov 8

Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPP’s and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys these will be more cash in nature.

Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), for GPP’s stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.

In Slack we have been discussing a new stat that will be added to my analysis and Jim Keenan (@rk101785 in Slack)’s chart breakdown in Slack. In addition to CA (Corsi against) and CF (Corsi for) we added BS + SOG (Blocked shots + shots on goalin the last 10 games). On DraftKings each is worth 0.5 points and if we can find players that consistently shoot and block shots our floor will be raised significantly. It seems to be working well, so far. As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times.

All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.

Here’s a quick look at today’s three game slate followed by a tier break down. The implied total will be in parenthesis and the money line will be the negative number next to the favored team.

Min (2.83)@ Tor -130 (3.17)
Bos (2.59) @ NYR -130 (2.91)
TB -110 (2.78) @SJ (2.72)

Tier 1

Kucherov (1/PP1)
Stamkos (1/PP1)
Matthews (1/PP2)

Pick one and stack the hell out of his correlation plays. Kuch and Matthews have virtually identical numbers. If you’re looking for a tie breaker SJ is better defensively than Min (edge Matthews) and Tor has a higher implied total (edge Matthews). It’s a reach to break the ties that way but these two are as close as I’ve seen in the short time I’ve been writing these articles… my gut says Kucherov if that means anything.

***Note: while I was writing this, it was announced that Matthews will miss this game. Kucherov will redefine chalk in this tier***

Tier 2

Pastrnak (1/PP1)
Zibanejad (1/PP1)
Burns (PP1)
Bergeron (1/PP1)

Burns is your cash guy and it isn’t close. He has the best CF and best BS+SOG on the entire slate and it is not close (in BS+SOG he has a 21 point cushion over Matthews). In GPPs I’m leaning Bergeron. He has the second most BS+SOG in the tier and he has only played eight games this season. I don’t trust the Bruins at all but if you’re going to trust one, trust the best Bruin to ever wear the Black and Gold sweater not named Bobby Orr or Ray Bourque. Zibanejad is viable, he has good numbers and NYR likes to score at home, but Boston has improved drastically defensively since the start of the season,

Tier 3

Couture (2/PP1)
Pavelski (1/PP1)
Nylander (1/PP2)
Hedman (PP1)

I have a ridiculous man crush on Joe Pavelski and I don’t know why. I liked him I college and even more in the NHL. He has the highest BS+SOG in this tier but I’m not going to be heavy on him. The way you break your ties from tier 1 is pair Matthews with Nylander and pair Kuch with Hedman. I thoroughly plan on having exposure to both combos.

Tier 4

Shattenkirk (PP1)
Namestikov (1/PP1)
E. Staal (1/PP2)
Kadri (3/PP1)
Zuccarello (2/PP1)

I think the chalk GPP stack will be Kuch, Hedman, Namestikov to get all the Stamkos exposure they can. But if you’re looking for a high floor guy that can go off go with Shattenkirk, he has the best CF and best BS+SOG in the tier.

Tier 5

Van Riemsdyk (2/PP1)
Kreider (1/PP1)
Koivu (2/PP1)
Marleau (2/PP2)
Krug (PP1)
Granlund (2/PP1)

Kreider has the best BS+SOG and is right there in CF with the top echelon of this tier and he is from Boston and went to Boston College. I’m sure he’ll have a little extra fire tonight. Speaking of Boston, Krug is heating up and is a very viable GPP option to stack with Bergy. He may even be cash safe. On a short slate like this, I’d recommend sticking to GPPs anyway. With the Matthews news breaking halfway through typing this up Granlund could be an option with one of the Min PP1 options in the next tier.

Tier 6

Suter (PP1)
Rielly (PP1)
Buchnevich (1/PP1)
Zucker (3/PP2)
Palat (2/PP2)
Niederreiter (1/PP1)
Thornton (1/PP1)

I was leaning Niederreiter before the Matthews news broke but now I’m worried if people will catch on. His numbers don’t look great but he’s only played seven games and his BS+SOG numbers are either better than or on par with everyone in the tier except the other PP1 option I eluded to Suter. I really like the idea of going with a lot of defensemen tonight, They all seem to have the best floor and also a high ceiling.

Remember follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and have fun and make some money tonight.