Just a little about me, I am a cash game guy at heart. But, I love taking occasional shots in GPP’s and bigger leagues with the more volatile sports. If I’m being honest with myself and you guys these will be more cash in nature.
Regardless of your style, you need correlation, Pick Em works the same way. Cash, you need two or three guys (same line/different PP or different line/same PP – spread it out as much as possible), for GPP’s stack up a whole line or whole PP unit and live and die by it – you either get all the points or none of the points.
In Slack we have been discussing a new stat that will be added to my analysis and Jim Keenan (@rk101785 in Slack)’s chart breakdown in Slack. In addition to CA (Corsi against) and CF (Corsi for) we added BS + SOG (Blocked shots + shots on goalin the last 10 games). On DraftKings each is worth 0.5 points and if we can find players that consistently shoot and block shots our floor will be raised significantly. In this article all corsi numbers are season long and all points and BS+SOG are last-10. It seems to be working well, so far. As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey or Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.
Today, we finally have a good size slate to break down… thanks DK you’ve been slacking lately. We have seven games and eight tiers.
CBJ -105 (2.72) @ MTL -106 (2.78)
DAL (2.94) @ FLA -114 (3.06)
WSH (2.57) @ NSH -134 (2.93)
PHI (2.56) @ MIN -136 (2.94)
ARI (2.24) @ WPG -201 (3.26)
VGK (2.53) @ EDM -183 (3.47)
VAN (2.30) @ LAK -188 (3.20)
Tier 1
Ovechkin (1/PP1)
Wheeler (1/PP1)
Scheifele (1/PP1)
Seguin (2/PP1)
McDavid (1/PP1)
The chalk on the slate is going to be EDM and WPG they are both going against terrible defemsive teams, with EDM being the #2 CF/60 team in the league. Everyone will flock to McDavid. He also has 11 points in the last 10 games. I’m taking my chalk to WPG tonight. Wheeler has the most BS+SOG and most points in the last 10 in the tier. He is also the top point scorer on the slate with 17 in the last 10. It is the top tier for a reason these are the best players on the slate, so it’s hard to go wrong anywhere. Just find your correlation elsewhere. It’s a big slate, so there’s plenty of opportunities.
Tier 2
Kopitar (1/PP1)
Voracek (1/PP1)
Benn (1/PP1)
Laine (2/PP1)
Draisaitl (1/PP1)
Draisaitl is the obvious choice for pairing with McDavid. He has the top CF numbers in the tier and nine points in the last 10. I’m leaning toward Jakub Voracek. He has the most BS+SOG in the tier and 11 points in the last 10. Kopitar has great numbers too but he is much for difficult to correlate, so he makes for more of a one-off play.
Tier 3
Couturier (1/PP1)
Giroux (1/PP1)
Forsberg (1/PP1)
Kuznetsov (1/PP1)
Ehlers (2/PP2)
Couturier’s numbers are flying off the page at me. He has the top BS+SOG, top points in the last 10 and top CF in the tier. My only hesitation with falling in love with this line is Philly is getting no Vegas love tonight with an ITT of 2.56. Minnesota isn’t anything special defensively, so maybe they go overlooked, since they aren’t one of the sexy teams people flock to (ie Pitt, EDM, DAL, WSH, etc). Speaking of WSH, if Philly scares you go with Kuznetsov and pair him with Ovi. The problem there is, Vegas doesn’t like them tonight either.
Tier 4
Barkov (1/PP1)
Pacioretty (2/PP1)
Neal (2/PP1)
Radulov (1/PP1)
Panarin (1/PP1)
There are very few guys in the NHL has hot as Alex Radulov right now, so if you’re going with Seguin and or Benn, through Radulov in there and finish off the top PP unit. Barkov actually has one more point in the last ten than Radulov. Pacioretty has terrific numbers but CBJ is really tough defensively and this should be a low scoring game.
Tier 5
Klingberg (PP1)
Weber (PP1)
Josi (PP1)
Carlson (PP1)
Gostisbehere (PP1)
Byfuglien (PP1)
Josi and Weber have excellent BS+SOG over the last 10. Weber will be tied up in a low scoring game so I’m off him, Josi is in a much better situation and I think NSH will go overlooked because everyone loves the Capitals. I’m personally going with Klingberg. He has solid BS+SOG and has the most points in the tier over the last 10. I think DAL@ FLA is our best chance for a shootout tonight, so that’s a great way to go in GPPs.
Tier 6
Huberdeau (1/PP1)
Keller (1/PP1)
Zucker (2/PP2)
Toffoli (2/PP2)
Marchessault (1/PP1)
Atkinson (2/PP1)
In this tier, for me anyway it’s Huberdeau and Zucker and then everyone else. Huberdeau has excellent numbers but he has the DTD tag next to his name, hopefully that scares lots of people off. If Huberdeau doesn’t go tonight, go Zucker. Toffoli could be a good one-off late night hammer, but I wouldn’t stack LAK because VAN is very good defensively.
Tier 7
Arvidsson (1/PP1)
E. Staal (2/PP2)
Turris (2/PP2)
Horvat (1/PP1)
Drouin (1/PP1)
Nugent-Hopkins (2/PP2)
The two that jump out at me in this tier are Arvidsson and RNH. Arvidsson has the highest BS+SOG in the tier but only 5 points in the last 10. RNH has similar BS+SOG numbers and nine points in the last 10. I think going with Nugent-Hopkins can be a low owned pivot off the McDavid/Draisaitl chalk. RNH also has the highest CF in the tier. Turris has good numbers but this will only be his second game with NSH, so fire him up as a GPP flyer but I don’t trust him in cash yet.
Tier 8
Doughty (PP1)
Boeser (1/PP1)
Klefbom (PP1)
Perron (2/PP1)
Connor (1/PP1)
Stepan (1/PP1)
Lucic (2/PP2)
Lucic is a decent GPP pivot with RNH, I wouldn’t use him alone though. Klefbom will be chalk in this tier. He has amazing BS+SOG ,the best CF (tied with Doughty) but only three points in the last 10. Doughty will probably give Klefbom a run for his money in chalkiness but I’m not as high of LAK as I usually am. I think they’ll win but it might only be 1-0, 2-1, just a slow boring game…Vancouver’s style. I think I’m going to go with Kyle Connor and pair him up with one of his line mates and watch the fireworks against a lousy Coyotes team.
** Goal guarantee: Sean Couturier** (I don’t know if I’ve gotten one of these right, but it’s fun to guarantee things I have no control over)
Hope this helps. Remember follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and have fun and make some money tonight.