As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seen to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
If you want to look at the raw numbers get in the DFS Army and look at Jim Keenan’s (@rk101785) chart breakdown in Slack. We also have terrific coaches and contributors for Classic NHL on FD and DK.
As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season long grind.
All my numbers come from RG, Corsica.hockey, Left Wing Lock or Vegas Insider for the money lines. If you need any explanation or just want to say hi feel free to DM me or tag me in Slack. Also follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and if it’s your first time reading this and you like it, join the DFS Army http://www.dfsarmy.com/ref/32/.
We have three games and six tiers tonight:
VAN (2.40) @ PHI -166 (3.10)
EDM (2.54) @ STL -140 (2.96)
MTL (2.71) @ DAL -150 (3.29)
There is a ton of talent in this tier but Tarasenko runs away from the other two for me. I will probably make lineups with all three but Senko has the highest iCF/60, most BS+SOG and is right behind McDavid in points in the last ten.
Normally I love Draisaitl and I will throw him in a line up tonight. I’m going to be heavier on Pacioretty who is leading the tier in iCF/60 and BS+SOG and Voracek who is leading the tier in points in the last ten. His team is also favored tonight and he is part of the highest scoring line in the league so far this season with Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier. Seguin is at the bottom of the tier in most offensive categories but he and the rest of the Stars can get hot in a hurry so he is worth a GPP flier too.
I wish I could make a line up off just this tier. Couturier and Pietrangelo have higher iCF/60 and BS+SOG, but lower ( for the tier, still solid) scoring. Schenn, Radulov and Giroux don’t shoot as much but they are more efficient with the shots they do take. Schenn is probably the safest guy to take. But in this tier just make sure you correlate. I will definitely have a Schenn/Senko, Pietrangelo/Senko and a Couturier/Voracek lineup possibly more but as of this morning that’s where I’m leaning.
Weber (PP1) – listed as DTD, so keep an eye on his status
The only one I’m not crazy about in this tier is RNH, but he has been efficient with his scoring so he isn’t a bad choice. Off pure numbers, it’s Weber and not close. But his injury and the lack of info about the injury is concerning. Klefbom is close but he hasn’t been scoring as much as everyone else in the tier. Pair him with McDavid and other EDM top line guys. If you are going heavy on the Stars, you have to throw Klingberg in there he sets up Seguin and Benn on the PP all the time. Dallas does have the highest ITT on the slate.
I kinda like the idea of a Boeser one-off here. He has the highest iCF/60 and most points in the last ten in this tier and his BS+SOG is near the top only four back of Danault and Steen who lead the tier. Philly is a very good defensive team but so is everyone else tonight. Montreal has the worst CA/60 ranking on the slate and they are #11 in the league. This easily could be a very low scoring night, so take some chances. Drouin is the other one that’s sticking out to me. I will have him in a Pacioretty/Weber (if he’s healthy) PP1 stack.
Cagguila (1/no PP)
Galchenyuk will provide the safest floor but truthfully I’m not big on anyone in this tier. So, I’ll just break down where to put these guys if you want to use them to maximize the correlation. Throw Galchenyuk in your MTL PP1 or line 2 stacks, Lucic with RNH or McDavid/Klef. Sobotka with Steen. Baertschi with Horvat or Boerser. Shore with Seguin or Seguin/Benn/Klingberg/Radulov (or some combo of that PP unit). Patrick with Simmonds. And Cagguila with McDavid and Maroon but I’m not crazy about him bc he doesn’t get any PP time.
Favorite Stacks (in no particular order)
*** Goal projection: Jakub Voracek***
Hope this helps. Remember, follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and let’s win some money tonight!