Flynnie’s Forecheck by RFlynn710
As we try to find our edge in Pick ‘Em on DK, I have been playing with different numbers to find the best predictors of success. Well, as predictable as DFS NHL can be.
I have been using team Corsi For (CF/60), team Corsi Against (CA/60), total CF and CA for individual players, blocked shots + shots on goal (BS+SOG) in the last ten games, total points (goals + assists) in the last 10. They seem to have put us on a lot of solid plays so far but today I want to try a new stat. Individual CF (iCF/60) per 60 minutes played. I think this will give us a better idea of how each player is performing instead of using a raw total number. No guarantees but I’m going to try it out for a few slates and if it sucks let me know. I don’t want to lead you in the wrong direction. I will point out where each tier stacks up and who is having the most success.
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As you know, nothing is a guarantee in NHL DFS except wild swings of highs and lows. Even cash games are frustrating at times. It’s a season-long grind.
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We have three games and six tiers tonight.
CBJ -116 (2.82) @ MTL (2.68)
MIN (2.65) @ WPG -120 (2.85)
ANA (2.34) @ CHI -179 (3.16)
Tier 1
Wheeler (1/PP1)
Kane (2/PP2)
Scheifele (1/PP1)
As far as the two Jets go, they both have excellent numbers recently. Wheeler is probably the best play of the two due to his higher shooting volume but I’m all over Patrick Kane tonight. Anaheim is terrible defensively and Chi has the #2 CF in the league.
Tier 2
Pacioretty (1/PP1)
Rakell – probably out watch that news
Laine (2/PP1)
Toews (1/PP1)
Atkinson (2/PP1)
Pacioretty has the most BS+SOG in the tier but he’s going against a solid defensive team in CBJ. I have this problem with everyone from this game. Both teams are good on both ends of the rink. Toews is a great option but doesn’t correlate with Kane. So use one or the other. Atkinson is coming off a 2-goal game and MTL struggles on the PK, the only problem is CBJ is the worst in the league on the PP.
Tier 3
Staal (2/PP2)
Zucker (2/PP2)
Ehlers (2/PP2)
Saad (1/PP2)
Panarin (2/PP1)
Perry (1/PP1)
I’m avoiding all thing Ducks tonight. They suppress scoring on the road but they can’t score either. It annoys me to no end that Zucker and Staal are both in this tier. I like them a lot together and a big weakness to exploit tonight is WPG’s PK, if I had to pick one it’s Eric Staal he is shooting and scoring a lot more recently. Saad is a good choice too, use him with Toews for a L1 stack or Kane for a PP2 stack. While typing this I noticed Atkinson got moved from the third line to the second making a good combo of Panarin and Atkinson.
Tier 4
Niederrieter (2/PP1)
Jones (PP1)
Koivu (1/PP1)
Anderson (1/ no PP)
Anisimov (2/PP2)
Drouin (2/PP1)
The only edge I can find so far in the MTL-CBJ game is avoiding MTL PP. They are bad and CBJ has a very good PK. So for that reason, I’m off Drouin (he only correlates with Pacioretty on the PP). This is going to come down to which MIN line I want to stack. Most of my exposure will be either Niederrieter or Koivu. Jones provides a safe cash floor, if that’s your route tonight.
Tier 5
Suter (PP1)
Granlund (1/PP1)
Werenski (PP2)
Jenner (1/PP2)
Silfverberg (2/PP1)
Panik (1/PP1)
Panik/Toews/Saad will be a popular stack tonight for good reason, I will probably have a share of that line. Granlund works well with Koivu. Suter works well in that correlation too. Suter will give you the floor, Granlund will give you the ceiling. Silfverberg has fantastic numbers but like I said, I’m off them unless it’s a deep GPP dart throw.
Tier 6
Spurgeon (PP1)
Keith (PP1)
Connor (1/PP1)
Byfuglien (PP1)
Fowler (PP1)
Danault (1/PP2)
Galchenyuk (2/PP1)
Panarin and Atkinson have terrible CA numbers when they’re together, so maybe (MAYBE) throw a Galchenyuk, Drouin mini-stack. It’s only three games, we have to do something funky to win a GPP. Spurgeon is also on the PP1 for Min so you could avoid Suter and play Spurgeon/Granlund/Koivu. Also if you really want some WPG play Connor with one of the Jets in Tier 1 and maybe Laine for the PP exposure, even though Min is #8 in the league in PK%.
This slate kinda sucks. There are a lot of good plays but the guys I want to play together are in the same tier. So have fun with it and let your freak flag fly in GPP’s. For cash, I think the safest options are CHI offense and MIN PP.
*Goal Prediction: Eric Staal*
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